Vegas only favoring Jaguars to win home game against Titans for all of 2015. 1-15 Really. While I get this is to gain early betting money from those who are not really informed world wide. Vegas is not in the business to lose money and usually does not lose money. Vegas must feel like player talent changes in free agency and draft will not be significant to improve win total.
I think a major part of this is because of the current national perception of the Jaguars team. If the Jaguars get off to a 2-0 start, the perception will likely change in a major way. With it being reflective in Vegas betting lines in games that follow, even if the Jags aren't favorite in some of those games.
Until this team proves it can win expect more of the same. Man I sure hope for a decent start to a season for once. The last four years have been pathetic.
IMO I believe we will win about 6-8 games but Vegas usually factors analysis of probability of winning/losing not national perception in actual betting lines. As I said while Vegas is trying to get early money on uninformed but 1 win when we won 3 last year?
We have talent but it's mostly unrealized. If we want to start winning, we need breakout performances and good coaching
I don't think Vegas favored us to win any games at this time last year.
Progress!
Im seeing Jaguars wins over/under is 5.5
That really gives me pause to bet the over
Interesting, I read that same article posted in the TU. I wonder what happened to the 5.5 wins predicted earlier? I suppose the injuries to Marks and Fowler may have had something to do with it. Of course, hiring an OC with a losing record probably didn't help either... and then there is our standing history of just flat out being bad that we've had for eight years or so now. Did you know we were also voted as having the ugliest uniform in the NFL according to ESPN? So, we have that going for us too.
The only thing that is going to turn this ship around is going to be wins. Not just 'playing hard' or 'having the right attitude' or any of that stuff. The bottom line is W's. If it happens that the prediction of only one win is correct, then Gus is not only on the hot seat, he's probably done here, and rightly so. I for one, however, don't see this team finishing with only one win; I still think six wins is doable.
Quote:Im seeing Jaguars wins over/under is 5.5
That really gives me pause to bet the over
I am not a bettor but I would agree based on the individual game points spread prediction of only 1 out of 16 games favored to be won by Jaguars. Since I am not a bettor I am wondering is this just a simple way for Vegas to cover both sides of the Win/Loss ratio betting?
[quote name="muddylips" post="491453" timestamp="1432232143"]Interesting, I read that same article posted in the TU. I wonder what happened to the 5.5 wins predicted earlier?
I don't think it changed. 2 different category of bets. over/under win ratio and single game points spread prediction for all 16 games.
Who cares? All this shows is where bettors money is being directed today. It carries about as much meaning as a weatherman predicting what the weather is going to be like on a specific day a year from now.
Quote:I am not a bettor but I would agree based on the individual game points spread prediction of only 1 out of 16 games favored to be won by Jaguars. Since I am not a bettor I am wondering is this just a simple way for Vegas to cover both sides of the Win/Loss ratio betting?
If I lived in Vegas I might take advantage of large spreads, because its all going to change once the season starts.
Quote:Who cares? All this shows is where bettors money is being directed today. It carries about as much meaning as a weatherman predicting what the weather is going to be like on a specific day a year from now.
What if I believe in Global Warning? My point is that even though I believe we are a better team we really have not significantly improved our roster with proven NFL players since our 3 win total last year. I thought we would be better last year and would have about 6 win total. There have been a lot of missed tackles and blocks the last 2 years hence the reason for losses. I also know Gus teaches basics on angles to give greatest opportunity to be successful on tackling/blocking. I hope I am wrong but I think it is the players and youth can't continue to be excuse because other teams have performed better in year 2 and 3.
Quote:What if I believe in Global Warning? My point is that even though I believe we are a better team we really have not significantly improved our roster with proven NFL players since our 3 win total last year. I thought we would be better last year and would have about 6 win total. There have been a lot of missed tackles and blocks the last 2 years hence the reason for losses. I also know Gus teaches basics on angles to give greatest opportunity to be successful on tackling/blocking. I hope I am wrong but I think it is the players and youth can't continue to be excuse because other teams have performed better in year 2 and 3.
Vegas odds are not a reflection of any sort of reality. They're a reflection of the perception the people betting have about the team today, and that perception is based on a lack of information and hindsight.
The roster is better. Anyone paying attention sees this.
The people betting don't care about the Jags and we are #lolJags at the moment. We don't have a huge fan-base, and no one really knows the potential this team has. If we get off to a fast start, 2-0, or 3-0, people will realize and completely jump on the band-wagon. Vegas is about making money, why would they bet on the Jags winning a game when we had a worse W/L record than 2013?
[quote name="FBT" post="491464" timestamp="1432233923"]Vegas odds are not a reflection of any sort of reality. They're a reflection of the perception the people betting have about the team today, and that perception is based on a lack of information and hindsight.
The roster is better. Anyone paying attention sees this.
I agree the roster is better and has been improved each of the last 3 years. I am paying attention I have been sitting in the stands for 18 years. I am not criticizing Gus/Dave it is clear the draft process is a crap shoot for all 32 teams. I know you pay attention too but my eyes do not deceive me week in and week out on basic mistakes that should not occur at this level. Look I am not trying to argue with you but I am a frustrated STH who believes in building a team through the draft not expensive free agents who don't produce to their pay level. I am just venting because I think we are getting excessively exuberant before the players have proven themselves.
Quote:The people betting don't care about the Jags and we are #lolJags at the moment. We don't have a huge fan-base, and no one really knows the potential this team has. If we get off to a fast start, 2-0, or 3-0, people will realize and completely jump on the band-wagon. Vegas is about making money, why would they bet on the Jags winning a game when we had a worse W/L record than 2013?
Vegas is predicting we win around 5 games, which seems pretty realistic. point spreads at this point are almost meaningless
Alright, somebody posts the lines! Everybody gets $100 imaginary Jaguar dollars, bet it on any game other than the titans at home, and let's see who makes money!
Where can I go and bet the 1 game?...bodog has us at 5.5 wins