This is one of the many reasons I'm pretty conservative when it comes to making trade downs in mocks...you just don't know what's going to happen. I've seen a couple of threads where posters have threw he idea of Trading with Cleveland for pick 12 and 19. I don't doubt there are still quality players there but 1) how sure can you be they would be better than the 1 guy you would have taken had you stayed put 2) how can you be sure that the players you've targeted would even be where you moved to. It all just seems a bit too risky but in the end who care...I'm not making the moves...Dave Caldwell is.
Mods feel free to move this to college...
There's a decent balance in the middle of the 1st so it's not a matter of being sold on 1 dude and hoping he'll be there at #12 or #19 but rather having various options based on who is picked or not.
Kevin White, Devonte Parker, Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Shane Ray ...... there's always surprises related to people slipping.
My guess is if they trade down, a guy or guys they want will mathematically be there to pick.
Quote:My guess is if they trade down, a guy or guys they want will mathematically be there to pick.
Makes sense.
Quote:This is one of the many reasons I'm pretty conservative when it comes to making trade downs in mocks...you just don't know what's going to happen. I've seen a couple of threads where posters have threw he idea of Trading with Cleveland for pick 12 and 19. I don't doubt there are still quality players there but 1) how sure can you be they would be better than the 1 guy you would have taken had you stayed put 2) how can you be sure that the players you've targeted would even be where you moved to. It all just seems a bit too risky but in the end who care...I'm not making the moves...Dave Caldwell is.
You dont if you are truly sold on a guy you draft him... GM Dave Caldwell & HC Gus Bradley basically said that about Blake Bortles last year's draft... because so many people said they couldve traded down and still got him.. but they said if you are sold on a guy you take him because you dont want to miss out...
The thing is they are good about close lip and sending media in different directions prior to the draft... so your not truly sure what they will do... if you go by his word GM Dave Caldwell said he is looking for trade offers because the consenus between staff (like HC) is that a few guys are equal (and thus if obtained in the top 10 further back would still be helpful to the team)...
of course a team has to be willing to give up much to trade up to make it worth wild and if a QB Mariota or Winston is there at #3 a team might do that...
or Williams if they arent sold on him for some reason heck even Cooper a team might trade up....
If they dont trade out of the spot... it depends on who is available I would have to think Williams, Cooper, Fowler in that order
I think if Williams is there, we try to trade down. He may be the best player in the draft, but he doesn't fill a need. That means the ideal thing would be to trade down. How far down is the question.
If the draft goes Winston, Mariota, then if we trade down from 3 to 5, with the assumption that Williams goes #3, then we are guaranteed either Fowler or Cooper. If we trade down to #6, we are guaranteed either Fowler, Cooper, or White. If we trade down to #8, we are guaranteed either Fowler, Cooper, White, Beasley, or Dupree. And that's as far as I would go.
Caldwell may have a different list than mine, of course, but you have to make sure at least one guy you want is going to be there when it's your pick.
If you plan on trading down you better have 5-6 players you feel are graded similarly to target and would be comfortable with them at your pick. The guy you really want may not be there so if you're targeting a particular person then you just take him.
I feel like it really depends on your perception of the draft class. I always think of classes in terms of pyramid drawn by a Second Grader; it's skinny at the top, wide at the bottom, and none of the lines are straight.
What I mean by that is there are always "top" guys in a given class who are just better than everyone else, but there's just a few of them. As the draft goes on, you get into the "fat" part of the class where players all tend to have similar value/potential. If you feel like those top guys are already gone, and you feel like the draft is getting into the fat area, then you trade down. If you feel like there are still difference makers available, then you don't.
I keep thinking about Bud Dupree. What if Gus thinks he's the best fit at LEO?
Trade down to #8 with Atlanta and I'm pretty sure Dupree would still be there.
Then we could use pick #36 on a top WR or RB and use the #42 pick from Atlanta on whichever position we don't get at #36.