There's no "right" answer to the idea of staying put or trading down. Many "sure things" in the top 3 of past drafts went bust. Many teams have traded down and missed out on a tremendous players.
I tend to go with the original poster for where this team is at now. This team needs to put in some impact players, and the odds of an impact player diminishes as you slide down in the round.
I see it this way:
the elite players we'll have a chance at: (don't have character concerns, are young and growing, have been productive, fit any scheme, and have prototypical measurables).
-Leonard Williams
-Amari Cooper.
Then there's a lot of other guys who are very interesting, but have legitimate concerns.
Beasley: Can he stop the run? Is he a 3-down player? Has he maxed out his physical potential (23/24 years old).
Fowler: Can he bend? Can he effectively rush the passer from the outside?
Ray: He's slow and not athletic. Short and not long.
White: Was productive for only like half of a year. What happened to him the other times?
Scherff: elite guard prospect, but you don't draft those that high. Too slow to play tackle.
Gregory: Is skinny, probably not a 3-down player. Now he has marijuana problems.
I could go on. And those are the BEST players of the rest of the draft. all the other ones will have even more questions marks, even more things to overcome to be great. Of course some teams will get lucky later in the draft and get some superstars, but the further you drop from the top, the less likely that is going to happen. that's just how it is. And who knows, we have 6 other picks, it's not like we can't draft superstars ourselves with what picks we already have available to us.
Therefore, for this draft specifically, I think it's smart to stay at #3 and select either Leonard Williams or Amari Cooper. You're getting yourself a stud that pretty much everyone is high on. That doesn't happen often. I mean seriously, can anybody find a lot of reputable people thinking Cooper won't be good in the NFL? He's got everything. Leonard Williams, except for a few unknown guys that have twitter accounts, is almost unanimously the best player in the draft. 20 years young, big, long, agile, good character. Everything you want in a prospect. It's Leonard or Amari. Get outta here with that trade back crap. Why would you allow another team dibs at the best, cleanest prospect is beyond me (unless they offer up the whole ranch, sure..maybe.
Now later, in round 2... lets say you have 15 guys that all have the same grade on your board.. someone calls and wants to trade up and you drop 7 spots... do it, of course!
Quote:I'd take 3 solid guys over 1 superstar all the time. I'd rather improve 3 positions than really improve 1.
Signed, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady
Odell Beckham Junior, Zach Martin and Dee Ford all went outside the top 10 last year. Teddy Bridgewater too.
If we must have Williams or Cooper, then stay at 3. But it's clearly possible to get top players lower in the first round.
Perhaps a bigger concern would be "will we get any decent trade offers ?" There are teams that might try to move up. But there are also several potential trade partners besides the Jagyars.
Quote:Odell Beckham Junior, Zach Martin and Dee Ford all went outside the top 10 last year. Teddy Bridgewater too.
If we must have Williams or Cooper, then stay at 3. But it's clearly possible to get top players lower in the first round.
Perhaps a bigger concern would be "will we get any decent trade offers ?" There are teams that might try to move up. But there are also several potential trade partners besides the Jagyars.
Zach Martin is a guard. Although he played very well, that is a non-premium position.
Nothing to me indicates Bridgewater will be a superstar.
Dee Ford had 1.5 sacks his rookie year. Not sure what your point is with him.
With Odell Beckham you have a point because he exceeded all expectations.
Quote:Zach Martin is a guard. Although he played very well, that is a non-premium position.
Nothing to me indicates Bridgewater will be a superstar.
Dee Ford had 1.5 sacks his rookie year. Not sure what your point is with him.
With Odell Beckham you have a point because he exceeded all expectations.
Other guys taken outside of the top ten include, but are not limited to:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
QB Joe Flacco
QB Aaron Rodgers
QB Brett Favre
QB Andy Dalton
QB Colin Kaepernick
QB Russell Wilson
DE Jason Taylor
DE Jerry Hughes
DE J.J. Watt
DE Cliff Avril
DE Michael Bennett
DE Robert Quinn
DE Muhammad Wilkerson
DE Jason Pierre Paul
CB Darelle Revis
CB Richard Sherman
CB Rashean Mathis
CB Vontae Davis
All of these guys play premium positions and have all played at reasonably high levels.
I agree there is a huge concern about trading yourself away from an elite player.
But there is the possibility the pre draft rankings are wrong, and that guys ranked lower are actually better than guys ranked ahead of them.
I am more gung ho about trading down this year in large part because Caldwell has expressed a willingness/desire to move down, in part because I feel we already have our QB, and I do not necessarily see the superstar level talent like Clowney at the top of this draft.
Quote:Zach Martin is a guard. Although he played very well, that is a non-premium position.
Nothing to me indicates Bridgewater will be a superstar.
Dee Ford had 1.5 sacks his rookie year. Not sure what your point is with him.
With Odell Beckham you have a point because he exceeded all expectations.
Sorry, I meant Aaron Donald, not Dee Ford - my mistake !
And you will probably say "he doesn't play in a premium position".
But that's my point. If you want a top pass rusher or WR, you probably need to pick in the top 8. But if you are happy filling another need, then very good players can be found lower in the draft.
And I think we disagree on Bridgewater. I think he can be a very good NFL QB.
If you are GM Dave Caldwell and the Browns offer you in exchange for #3 overall pick they will give you 12th & 19th pick in this years draft and next years 3rd round would you instead ask for the same thing except instead of 19th overall this year have next years 1st? I mean lets be honest the Browns will probably not be 19th or worse overall this season & by asking for next years first you might even get a top 10 or top 5 pick...
plus worse case scenario if the jags stink it up with less then 6 wins well have to high draft picks in the first round for the new GM / HC to play with in 2016....
Quote:
I agree there is a huge concern about trading yourself away from an elite player.
But there is the possibility the pre draft rankings are wrong, and that guys ranked lower are actually better than guys ranked ahead of them.
Sure, it's a possibility. We don't know what Dave's board looks like - but I'm saying if he's got the best player available on his board, let's take him.
The probability of hitting on later picks is smaller than when you pick #3 overall.
Like I said, our roster is almost too young and too inexperienced, we don't need to add multiple rookies everywhere. Hopefully some of the ones we drafted last year turn into superstars.
It's easy to see valid points on both sides of this, but I'm all for trading down if we still pick higher than somewhere around #18 overall.
Obviously there would have to be a fair return in picks, but hypothetically, I tend to think Caldwell would come out on top in that scenario.
Quote:It's easy to see valid points on both sides of this, but I'm all for trading down if we still pick higher than somewhere around #18 overall.
Obviously there would have to be a fair return in picks, but hypothetically, I tend to think Caldwell would come out on top in that scenario.
If the Jags were to trade down, it would have to be lopsided in favor of us. Of course going from 3 to 5 or 3 to 6 won't be as big of a return, but we still be get good compensation. This is why I'm not as in favor of a trade with the Jets or Redskins unless they really want Mariota that bad they will give us more picks than what we deem necessary. I prefer staying at 3 if we don't get a trade that consists of the farm, or if Mariota is not there completely. Theres a couple guys that could be available at 3 who are elite prospects and who will impact the team immediately.
Quote:If you are GM Dave Caldwell and the Browns offer you in exchange for #3 overall pick they will give you 12th & 19th pick in this years draft and next years 3rd round would you instead ask for the same thing except instead of 19th overall this year have next years 1st? I mean lets be honest the Browns will probably not be 19th or worse overall this season & by asking for next years first you might even get a top 10 or top 5 pick...
plus worse case scenario if the jags stink it up with less then 6 wins well have to high draft picks in the first round for the new GM / HC to play with in 2016....
If the browns want us to move out of the top 10. They will have to give us the farm and mortgage, period. Thats both firsts this year, probably a day 2 pick this year, probably a day 2 pick next year and some day 3 picks. They are not getting Mariota and moving up to 3 without signing their drafts over for the next two seasons.
Quote:If the browns want us to move out of the top 10. They will have to give us the farm and mortgage, period. Thats both firsts this year, probably a day 2 pick this year, probably a day 2 pick next year and some day 3 picks. They are not getting Mariota and moving up to 3 without signing their drafts over for the next two seasons.
that's exactly how I see it as well.
Get the elite prospects at this draft, because I don't think there's many of them. (not saying there won't be elite players that developed, but as of right now, there are only a handful of elite prospects.)
Quote:Other guys taken outside of the top ten include, but are not limited to:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
QB Joe Flacco
QB Aaron Rodgers
QB Brett Favre
QB Andy Dalton
QB Colin Kaepernick
QB Russell Wilson
DE Jason Taylor
DE Jerry Hughes
DE J.J. Watt
DE Cliff Avril
DE Michael Bennett
DE Robert Quinn
DE Muhammad Wilkerson
DE Jason Pierre Paul
CB Darelle Revis
CB Richard Sherman
CB Rashean Mathis
CB Vontae Davis
All of these guys play premium positions and have all played at reasonably high levels.
I agree there is a huge concern about trading yourself away from an elite player.
But there is the possibility the pre draft rankings are wrong, and that guys ranked lower are actually better than guys ranked ahead of them.
I am more gung ho about trading down this year in large part because Caldwell has expressed a willingness/desire to move down, in part because I feel we already have our QB, and I do not necessarily see the superstar level talent like Clowney at the top of this draft.
I agree with the OP, for this draft, and for this young team. There's a reason why teams put an actual value system on every pick in the draft. The number one pick has the highest value bc your ROI projection is higher then any other pick. The number three pick has the 3rd highest ROI protection. Of course you can get a high return from a lower valued pick, but it's obviously more risky. That's why the compensation for trading back has to be very high.
Great points OP!
Quote:that's exactly how I see it as well.
Get the elite prospects at this draft, because I don't think there's many of them. (not saying there won't be elite players that developed, but as of right now, there are only a handful of elite prospects.)
I base my opinion off what Caldwell has done or wanted to do so far. He's gone offense heavy and has stated that he wants this offseason to be about improving Bortles. I think they really want a receiver and a running back at this point. I think they wanted Cobb bad and missing out on him makes it even more of a chance to get Amari Cooper at 3. I think if they can get the Saints, Chargers or Browns to bite on a trade for Mariota, which gives us like 2 first round picks this year, i think you take that and grab one of Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordan if your sold on either on them. Jags seem desperate for a RB, and if we can get a farm like trade which includes two first round picks this year, why not use one of those on a gamble like Todd Gurley?
Im not against trading down, and I'm very open to it. I just want us to be the ones who come out on top if we do. I think if we do trade down, we gotta get a trade that not only gives us tons of compensation, but sets us up for the future while our trading partner takes all the risk. Moving back a few spots for the Jets or Redskins gives us less compensation and more of a chance for them to not only land but bank on a top prospect in the draft. Is Vic Beasley really worth losing out on Williams, Cooper?
Quote:I agree with the OP, for this draft, and for this young team. There's a reason why teams put an actual value system on every pick in the draft. The number one pick has the highest value bc your ROI projection is higher then any other pick. The number three pick has the 3rd highest ROI protection. Of course you can get a high return from a lower valued pick, but it's obviously more risky. That's why the compensation for trading back has to be very high.
Great points OP!
But in this particular set of circumstances, the chances of high compensation of trading back are high-if Mariota is on the board at 3.
That's the whole idea.
You'd theoretically get strong ROI from a trade back from three under these circumstances.
If you changed the hypothetical thusly:
- the Jaguars had not selected Bortles and QB was still an issue
- I perceived superstar caliber talent at the top of this draft, at QB and another position or two
Then I would not advocate trading down.
Under those circumstances, the chances are good that a potential franchise QB would be on the board when we picked, or if there were a superstar caliber non QB, then I would be reluctant to deal down-just like I was last year.
But since, as it stands now, QB has been addressed, and while I see Leonard Williams as a good prospect, I don't necessarily see him as a Superstar (admittedly I may be wrong), I am more open to dealing down because if Mariota is on the board at 3, QB needy teams below us will likely offer good deals to swap with us.
We'd get the ROI to which you refer.
Quote:Then you try to trade down, that's quite simple.
I think there are only a few "elite" talents in this year's draft. To me, those are Jameis Winston, Leonard Williams, and Amari Cooper.
Then there's a gap (IMO). Talented players, sure - but they have question marks that the other's don't (I'll exclude Jameis from the discussion because he's going #1 overall).
The rest of the guys are bunched up together, guys like Fowler, Beasley, White, Gregory, Ray, etc.
So we're sitting nicely at #3. We need to get one of those guys.
Now, if somehow we're sitting at 4 and Jameis, Cooper, and Williams have been picked, and you don't think there's a huge drop off from the next tier of players - then yeah you try to trade down.
But that won't be a problem for us.
Winston will be gone.
Williams is the best player in the draft, but he plays the same position that Odrick plays. I personally think it was a mistake to go after Odrick, especially at that price, but now that we have ...
I don't think Cooper is an elite WR. We already have several WRs with high expectations.
Quote:But in this particular set of circumstances, the chances of high compensation of trading back are high-if Mariota is on the board at 3.
That's the whole idea.
You'd theoretically get strong ROI from a trade back from three under these circumstances.
If you changed the hypothetical thusly:
- the Jaguars had not selected Bortles and QB was still an issue
- I perceived superstar caliber talent at the top of this draft, at QB and another position or two
Then I would not advocate trading down.
Under those circumstances, the chances are good that a potential franchise QB would be on the board when we picked, or if there were a superstar caliber non QB, then I would be reluctant to deal down-just like I was last year.
But since, as it stands now, QB has been addressed, and while I see Leonard Williams as a good prospect, I don't necessarily see him as a Superstar (admittedly I may be wrong), I am more open to dealing down because if Mariota is on the board at 3, QB needy teams below us will likely offer good deals to swap with us.
We'd get the ROI to which you refer.
Your initial argument, from what I saw, was that it did not matter if you picked third or if you picked in the top 25. To me that is not accurate. Picking third increases your chance on hitting on a prospect. That is if you pick well.
Now you're talking about the prospects, aka the investments. You're also assuming that every pick outside of Winston and whomever the 2nd pick (not Mariota) has a lower beta, aka risk, grade on them. If for argument sake, Winston and Williams are off the board when we pick. And lets say that DC has a risk/grade on those two and Cooper of above 95, and the next grades are 91 and below. You don't trade away that pick to potentially get a player with a grade of 91 and below. The risk of their ROI is much higher. To the OPs point, we have plenty of those players on our team right now. Go for the player with the highest potential return/upside to pair with the other investments.
While Lee and Robinson have good potential, Cooper is a faster and more complete receiver.
Robinson is coming off a foot injury (which ban be tricky) and Lee has been very injury prone.
Call me crazy but I'm not super confident those two will be healthy and productive, together.
We went after a WR in free agency. We didn't get Cobb. I think Cooper can be that guy that instantly upgrades our offense.
Quote:Signed, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady
QB is the only position you can argue that, so well done.