Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/124045...on-mailbag

Thanks.  That was a very informative article.  Good read.

Quote:Thanks.  That was a very informative article.  Good read.

Wondering if I am being wooshed here.

 

Jaguars board paranoia strikes again.

"The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed. Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent more than $143 million on unrestricted free-agent contracts and ended up at the top of the draft after a 2-14 season."

Quote:"The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed. Last year, the
<a class="bbc_url" href='http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-buccaneers'>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</a> spent more than $143 million on unrestricted free-agent contracts and ended up at the top of the draft after a 2-14 season."

I think its all about fit and being smart. Everyone here knows spending doesn't equate to wins but we also know Drayton Florence and Robinson were never worth that type of money. Some players available this year are legitimate players I don't mind spending on.

Quote:"The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed. Last year, the
<a class="bbc_url" href='http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-buccaneers'>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</a> spent more than $143 million on unrestricted free-agent contracts and ended up at the top of the draft after a 2-14 season."

I'm sure their QB situation didn't help.


(Not to mention the tank job at the end of the season)

Quote:I think its all about fit and being smart. Everyone here knows spending doesn't equate to wins but we also know Drayton Florence and Robinson were never worth that type of money. Some players available this year are legitimate players I don't mind spending on.

 

Just having a team that is worth getting out of bed to drive to the stadium to watch will be a start. Glad they are forced to spend so much money. Will be interesting to see how Caldwell's steadfast build through the draft approach translates to forced free agency.

Quote:"The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed. Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent more than $143 million on unrestricted free-agent contracts and ended up at the top of the draft after a 2-14 season."

 

Such a simplistic way of looking at the situation. Probably more to do with them entrusting Josh McCown with the starting job than anything.

Quote:Such a simplistic way of looking at the situation. Probably more to do with them entrusting Josh McCown with the starting job than anything.

So you're just skipping to the second sentence and ignoring the first. OK.

Quote:"The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed. Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent more than $143 million on unrestricted free-agent contracts and ended up at the top of the draft after a 2-14 season."

 

The statement, "The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed." is pointless.   Here's why.  

 

The reason they usually don't succeed is because the biggest spenders in free agency are the teams with the most cap space, and the number one reason teams have a lot of cap space is bad drafting (they don't have players that deserve big extensions).   Therefore, the teams that spend the most on free agency are the worst teams.    Great teams, the ones that succeed year after year, don't wind up with much cap space to use on outside free agents.

 

So to me, this says, spending big in free agency is not what causes a lack of success, it's the other way around.   Lack of success causes big spending in free agency.  

 

So the bottom line is, spend big if you have the money.   You may or may not have success the following season, but spending big in free agency is not what will cause the lack of success.  

Quote:So you're just skipping to the second sentence and ignoring the first. OK.

 

I addressed the one example they gave. In regards to the Jaguars, this team won't start winning because of the two or three guys they get in free agency. It will be because of the two dozen draft picks Caldwell has made.

Quote:The statement, "The biggest spenders in free agency usually don't succeed." is pointless.   Here's why.  

 

The reason they usually don't succeed is because the biggest spenders in free agency are the teams with the most cap space, and the number one reason teams have a lot of cap space is bad drafting (they don't have players that deserve big extensions).   Therefore, the teams that spend the most on free agency are the worst teams.    Great teams, the ones that succeed year after year, don't wind up with much cap space to use on outside free agents.

 

So to me, this says, spending big in free agency is not what causes a lack of success, it's the other way around.   Lack of success causes big spending in free agency.  

 

So the bottom line is, spend big if you have the money.   You may or may not have success the following season, but spending big in free agency is not what will cause the lack of success.  

Agreed completely.

 

There have been numerous instances of Super Bowl winning teams signing free agents.

 

Dallas and San Francisco signed Deion Sanders.

 

Green Bay signed Sean Jones and Reggie White.

 

Denver signed guys like Bill Romanowski and Neil Smith.

 

Baltimore signed guys like Shannon Sharpe and Rod Woodson.

 

Tampa signed Simeon Rice and Keenan McCardell.

 

New England signed guys like Revis.

Quote:Just having a team that is worth getting out of bed to drive to the stadium to watch will be a start. Glad they are forced to spend so much money. Will be interesting to see how Caldwell's steadfast build through the draft approach translates to forced free agency.

Then this too lol. I believe Caldwell understands that he has the ability to acquire talent in multiple ways. I am all for building through the draft and I want them to continue to do that. Poor drafting is what got this team in the situation its is in now. I think we all have learned our lesson from that. 

 

With that being said, this is a free agency period that I have never seen before. Usually the caliber of player that is available is a CJ Spiller or a Charles Clay and those are the top free agents. I have never seen players like Suh or McCourty reaching free agency. Smith, Maclin, Cobb at wideout. Thomas and Jordan at TE. Guys like Akeem Ayers (clint session level) are guys who aren't even talked about now, were in previous years; would be the ones breaking the bank. This is the year to add a top flight player or two and it would seem foolish to me if Caldwell passed on that opportunity. 

 

Sorry to go back to him but I look at Suh. I understand we have Marks and all that other jazz but this is a guy who is one of only a handful of players that change the game in a transcendent way. McCourty would morph our defensive game planing and possibly make us a top 5 defense instantly.  Even J. Thomas would give us a receiving threat we have never had in Jacksonville before. We have the rare ability to add not one but two of these types of players. 

 

Caldwell can still make draft moves and accumulate picks or take the best at three. He has the ability to change this team in a big way from multiple angles. 

Quote:I'm sure their QB situation didn't help.


(Not to mention the tank job at the end of the season)

 

 Interestingly,   the Bucs are also looking to already get rid of LT Anthony Collins,  who they heavily invested in last March,  in Free Agency.   

 

Josh McCown is far from a long term solution.  Yet,  the Bucs made their 2014 QB situation even worse because of the Offensive Line they surrounded their QBs with.  

Quote:I addressed the one example they gave. In regards to the Jaguars, this team won't start winning because of the two or three guys they get in free agency. It will be because of the two dozen draft picks Caldwell has made.

Agreed.

Quote:Agreed completely.


There have been numerous instances of Super Bowl winning teams signing free agents.


Dallas and San Francisco signed Deion Sanders.


Green Bay signed Sean Jones and Reggie White.


Denver signed guys like Bill Romanowski and Neil Smith.


Baltimore signed guys like Shannon Sharpe and Rod Woodson.


Tampa signed Simeon Rice and Keenan McCardell.


New England signed guys like Revis.

And this is exactly how the good teams use free agency.


You augment, not build.

Quote:And this is exactly how the good teams use free agency.


You augment, not build.

Yes.

 

But to do that, you have to have success in the draft.

 

If you have too many misses in the draft, then FA becomes a poor, expensive substitute that results in failure.

 

Or alternatively, if you stay away from free agency after repeated draft misses, you get what we've gotten here.

 

FA can help as a supplement to the draft, but cannot be used as a substitute.

Quote:Yes.

 

But to do that, you have to have success in the draft.

 

If you have too many misses in the draft, then FA becomes a poor, expensive substitute that results in failure.

 

Or alternatively, if you stay away from free agency after repeated draft misses, you get what we've gotten here.

 

FA can help as a supplement to the draft, but cannot be used as a substitute.

 

I think we have to look at this FA as a substitute. We always talk about the draft as a foundation, but quite honestly, I don't know that Luke and Cyp have proven to be "foundation" players. Most of our "foundation" players are from Dave's year 2 class. Its rare that guys like Suh and McCourty hit the market. Even Cobb or Maclin.

 

Think of it this way...Cobb was drafted in 2011. So was Julius Thomas. That was our Blaine Gabbert draft. Had Gene's picks worked out, this is when we would be resigning those guys. With all the cap space we have, and our 2013 class not completely living up to their billing (yet?), we might as well treat guys like Cobb and Thomas as if we were the ones who drafted them in 2011 and are now extending them as part of our team.

 

Its the older guys that we have to treat as supplements, since they likely won't be here as long as the younger guys. But in the case of Suh, he's just too dominant to pass up on if we have the opportunity to bring him in. Even McCourty with his scheme fit.

Quote:Yes.


But to do that, you have to have success in the draft.


If you have too many misses in the draft, then FA becomes a poor, expensive substitute that results in failure.


Or alternatively, if you stay away from free agency after repeated draft misses, you get what we've gotten here.


FA can help as a supplement to the draft, but cannot be used as a substitute.

You're not saying anything I disagree with, which is the exact reason I don't think we should go nuts in free-agency. I never tried to infer we should stay away. Just don't go hog-wild just because they have the money.


It's all about the draft and filling in key pieces with free agents.

Quote:I think we have to look at this FA as a substitute. We always talk about the draft as a foundation, but quite honestly, I don't know that Luke and Cyp have proven to be "foundation" players. Most of our "foundation" players are from Dave's year 2 class. Its rare that guys like Suh and McCourty hit the market. Even Cobb or Maclin.

 

Think of it this way...Cobb was drafted in 2011. So was Julius Thomas. That was our Blaine Gabbert draft. Had Gene's picks worked out, this is when we would be resigning those guys. With all the cap space we have, and our 2013 class not completely living up to their billing (yet?), we might as well treat guys like Cobb and Thomas as if we were the ones who drafted them in 2011 and are now extending them as part of our team.

 

Its the older guys that we have to treat as supplements, since they likely won't be here as long as the younger guys. But in the case of Suh, he's just too dominant to pass up on if we have the opportunity to bring him in. Even McCourty with his scheme fit.

Excellent point.

 

I would counter by indicating that the quality of players in this draft seems to be better than it has been in years past.

 

You draft in the hopes of getting a dominant player, or at least a contributor over several seasons.

 

Barring injury or a dramatic drop in motivation, Suh can be a dominant player.

 

Several other players are in their prime, appear to be scheme fits, need fits, and have the talent to upgrade our team.

 

If there is a year to substitute FA for the draft, this is it.