This is the beginning of the NFL's yearly march to 365 domination of the news cycle. As we all set our DVR's to watch the only track meet most of us will ever watch voluntarily (the combine) I can't help but be reminded of the 2013 draft.
At this time of the year we are usually told that a few prospects are the best in the history of the draft evolutionary process. If you remember, Luke and chance were deemed to be the two best lineman people had ever seen. Chance was thought of as the only guard worth consideration for the top spot and many had him rated as their #1 prospect overall regardless of position. Fast forward to actually breaking down all the tape and neither of them were taken first at their own position and neither of which has made a firm claim on the hall of fame just yet.
The list goes on. We were told that Ziggy Ansah was the reincarnation of Javon Kearse. We were told that Aaron curry was the sure fire can't miss prospect of the decade! In reality, all these claims flew in the face of general common sense when you saw that ansah while gifted was a 4.7 guy not a 4.4 guy and that warmack and luke were closer to the athletic norm than someone like lane Johnson.
That finally brings us to Leonard Williams. He is a great 3/5 technique that has shown above average production for his position, but so did Tyson Alualu. In fact, Tyson's last year was actually a hair better than Williams last year. You're talking about someone who is being talked about as the savior of franchises defense who had both single digit sacks and single digit tackles for loss. Does that sound like the most dominant defensive force since J.J. Watt. There's no doubt he will probably be taken high, heck we may take him. At the same time, common sense tells you that more often than not the chances of a 3/5 technique ever producing on a level to justify the third pick overall are slim and even worse when their production in college doesn't foreshadow it.
Who told you Luke was the best lineman they had ever seen?
Quote:This is the beginning of the NFL's yearly march to 365 domination of the news cycle. As we all set our DVR's to watch the only track meet most of us will ever watch voluntarily (the combine) I can't help but be reminded of the 2013 draft.
At this time of the year we are usually told that a few prospects are the best in the history of the draft evolutionary process. If you remember, Luke and chance were deemed to be the two best lineman people had ever seen. Chance was thought of as the only guard worth consideration for the top spot and many had him rated as their #1 prospect overall regardless of position. Fast forward to actually breaking down all the tape and neither of them were taken first at their own position and neither of which has made a firm claim on the hall of fame just yet.
The list goes on. We were told that Ziggy Ansah was the reincarnation of Javon Kearse. We were told that Aaron curry was the sure fire can't miss prospect of the decade! In reality, all these claims flew in the face of general common sense when you saw that ansah while gifted was a 4.7 guy not a 4.4 guy and that warmack and luke were closer to the athletic norm than someone like lane Johnson.
That finally brings us to Leonard Williams. He is a great 3/5 technique that has shown above average production for his position, but so did Tyson Alualu. In fact, Tyson's last year was actually a hair better than Williams last year. You're talking about someone who is being talked about as the savior of franchises defense who had both single digit sacks and single digit tackles for loss. Does that sound like the most dominant defensive force since J.J. Watt. There's no doubt he will probably be taken high, heck we may take him. At the same time, common sense tells you that more often than not the chances of a 3/5 technique ever producing on a level to justify the third pick overall are slim and even worse when their production in college doesn't foreshadow it.
Tysons last year was better than Williams? By what measure? Just stats?
There's a reason Alualu was a 2nd round prospect and Williams is the top player in this draft. Is it sure fire? No. But the odds of the Williams being very good is very high.
If the draft was an exact science every team would be stacked with probowlers
So, your point is many hyped players entering the draft don't always turn out as great as some project. Leonard Williams may be one of them. Your point is valid, although not of great insight. All players, in all drafts, are a risk when they enter the pros. However, the players taken in the first round, and especially in the top 10 picks, have much better historical odds of success in the NFL.
Go back and look at what was being said about him at this point in the process.
No, it's not just that the players are over-hyped. What I am saying is that you have players that are pushed in the face of common sense. The chances of Leonard Williams being or approaching J.J. Watt are slim to none. Why? because the fundamental nature of the five technique position doesn't lend itself to the kind of impact that the most freakish lineman of our GENERATION has. Yet that doesn't stop people from pushing a narrative that's almost certainly false.
Reggie Williams was gifted athletically, but when you actually watched him try to catch a football it was like his body would start running away from a hot poker. he functionally couldn't gather his feet and compete for the ball at the highest point and this is a guy that was pushed as a top ten pick! Reggie Williams ran 4.3 at his pro day and he was Ed Reed no matter how unsophisticated Florida's defense was.
What I'm saying is that I hate being a prisoner of the moment comparing College players to League MVP candidates because it sells magazines.
And a huge difference between the perceptions of Williams v. Alualu is the jersey they wore. Just ask Aaron Rogers. If Williams played for Cal or Arizona instead of one of the more storied College football programs in recent history I think the idea that he is the overall top talent in the draft would be way overstated.
I have been wrong in the past, and as we have all said, the draft is an inexact science. At the same time I stand by my assertion that the comparisons of Dion Jordan to Jason Taylor were immature and that I seriously doubt passing on Mingo is going to be a decision that haunts this franchise.
So this thread is about something's that can happen and something's that don't happen? Hype and no hype?
Sounds great! Another great topic started.
Williams doesn't have to be Watt.
Get your head out of the stat book.
this seems more like a problem with media
I agree in general with what you're saying for the most part, which is why I'm still hoping the Jaguars find a way to trade down in the draft. But I'm not entirely sure what you're point is. Are you saying you don't want the Jaguars to select Leonard Williams? And if not, who should they pick?
My point is that in a sane world you don't take five techniques at three because they won't have the impact. The only way that its even a consideration is if you are dealing with a once in a lifetime prospect that will over achieve... against his generation. When I look at Leonard Williams I don't just see hype, like for Cam Newton or RGIII etc, I see bloviating that will probably be recanted by draft day.
Second, the point of this forum at this point in the season is to discuss Certain prospects. This is me calling B.S. on the idea that a 5 technique end with above average production should be the third overall pick in the NFL draft.
I haven't made up my mind about the pick at 3. I just know that over time going by the numbers makes more sense.
Planet Theory.
It's real.
Planet theory,
When he breaks 4.8 give me a call and I'll listen.
Reggie Williams? Reggie Nelson?