Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

It is no secret the Jaguars need an infusion of experience and talent, especially on offense.  One of the positions of offensive need is TE, where former first round pick Marcedes Lewis has only put together one Pro Bowl caliber year-back in 2010.  Since then, Lewis has struggled mightily with injury and poor play.

 

It is also no secret that fans on message boards will debate the pros and cons of signing particular players at particular positions.

 

One such subject of debate on this board has been Broncos TE and presumably soon to be free agent Julius Thomas.

 

It seems the prevailing sentiment on this board towards Julius Thomas is one of understandable apprehension.  The thought is Thomas looks better and is more productive than he otherwise would be because he played for one of the greatest of all time QBs in Peyton Manning, and any team that signs him would be disappointed because he would not be as productive.  While he does not play a position that is readily measured by statistics, Zane Beadles seems to embody this concern, as he seemed to be way more of a liability in Jacksonville than he was in Denver, while he protected a QB that processed the defenses accurately and quickly, and distributed the ball quickly enough to minimize hits and sacks on Manning.  Here, where he blocked for a novice QB in Bortles, his liabilities as a pass blocker and a run blocker are in full display, as Bortles struggles to read defenses and be decisive with the ball.  The team is also placed in more running situations against defenses that don't respect the pass as they do against Manning.  Beadles' shortcomings in the run game become more apparent here because of this.  The fear is we would see something similar here with a Thomas signing.

 

After giving it some thought, I am not as apprehensive towards signing Julius Thomas as I may have been earlier for a couple of reasons.

 

1.  Manning's greatness does not negate Thomas' physical ability.  Yes, Manning's ability to dissect defenses, arm strength, accuracy and decisiveness make any receiver to which he throws better and more productive than they would be under an average to below average QB.  However, Thomas would still need the ability to separate from defenders.  He has the physical traits to do that.  He has a long TD reception of 74 yards.  His career yards per catch (11.8) is higher than Manning's TE in Indy, Dallas Clark (11.2), and is comparable to the YPC average of 8 time Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates in three of his Pro Bowl seasons 2004 (11.9), 2008 (11.7), and 2011 (12.2).  His YPC average is also higher than certain Hall of Famers Tony Gonzalez (11.4)  and Jason Witten (11.1).  While Marcedes Lewis also has a career average higher than all those guys, including Thomas, it is unquestioned Lewis doesn't have the productivity.  Thomas is productive in all of those areas because he is physically capable of beating man coverage underneath and attacking the seams.

 

2.  Manning's greatness may have enhanced his productivity.  You are undoubtedly reading that and saying "What?!?!?  That is exactly what we are talking about!  He is overrated because he played for Manning.  But this presumes none of the ways he benefits by playing with Manning are transferable to wherever else he may play.  I don't think this is true.  Manning is notorious for being hard on his receivers.  

 

  http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_2079...source=pkg

 

Manning is known for demanding receivers be precise in running routes and reading coverages.  He doesn't throw to them if they aren't good route runners.  Thomas played his first two seasons in the NFL before Manning got to Denver (that means Tebow for one of those seasons).   Gates knows or should know what should make him a more productive receiving TE in the NFL having practiced with Manning for two years, and comparing it to his first two seasons.

 

 

For a QB like Bortles struggling to get his bearings in a new offense in his second year, having a safety blanket at TE who will be in place when he is supposed to be there,who can actually represent a matchup advantage against underneath coverage is crucial to his development as a passer.  Thomas may never reproduce the 24 TDs he produced over the last two seasons while Bortles learns how to play the game, but it doesn't mean he can't be a reliable target and an upgrade over what we've had.   

 

 

Agree..I have been saying this same thing. Thomas has elite talent no matter who his QB is.

Free Agency differs greatly from the College Draft in as much as the player actually has a say on where he wants to go and play.

 

All players want to play for a team that has a chance to win a Super Bowl, because it is the defining moment in a player's career.

 

While Jacksonville may be a nice place to live and raise a family it is not a Big City and it does not look like the Jaguars will get to the Super Bowl in the next two years.

 

What the Jaguars do have is a lot of money to spend on Free Agent Player contracts.

 

The Jaguars also have a very infectiously optimistic Head Coach who seems to be a Players Coach.

 

So the Jaguars will most likely attract one of two types of players.

 

The first type would sign with the Jags because the Jags can grossly overpay him.

 

Remembering that only guaranteed money is the money the player can count on, the Jags can and most likely will overpay certain players.

 

The second type of player that will sign with the Jags is the type that is looking for that right fit with a team that is on the rise. These players typically are not the front line Stars in the league, rather they still have something to prove in their careers, due most likely to changes in the coaching staffs of the teams that originally drafted them.

 

The second type of player seems to be the more predominate target for the Jags because both sides, the team and player are pledging to work together towards a common goal that of creating a winner.

 

I am of the opinion that the Jags will not sign many Star players in Free Agency who seek to "Get Paid".

 

The Jaguars will attempt to find those hidden gems in Free Agency that are still "Hungry" and have the "Will to Win" based upon the desire to be part of something greater than themselves. Something that has not yet been built and to which these players can make themselves an integral part thereof.

 

Relating this to the topic of Julius Thomas, I get the feeling that he is more of a player that wants to "Get Paid" and "Cash In" on this opportunity to set himself up financially for the rest of his life. There is nothing wrong with that approach, strictly speaking.

 

I also believe that Julius Thomas craves the spotlight and thus will look for a team that will emphasize his skillset and use it to compete for Championships. While I do believe that if the team were to sign Julius Thomas they would use him, I am not so certain they will use him in the manner that the Star Julius Thomas thinks is appropriate.

 

Over the past two seasons, Julius Thomas has entered the national spotlight and has become a household name at least in football fan circles. He has worked hard to create that image and right now I do not think he will want to come to the proverbial Siberia of Football, Jacksonville, Florida and play for a struggle 3-13 football team. His window to shine is just too short.

 

I think Jordan Cameron of the Browns has a similar mindset.

 

I think that Charles Clay of the Dolphins might consider the Jaguars, but more and more the tea leaves tell me that a player like Rob Housler who had some success under Whisenhut in Arizona, might be more the player to target.

 

Rob Housler had two season, 2012 and 2013, where he caught close to 40 receptions. Coming out of Florida Atlantic he ran a 4.55 - 40 and he has large hands. He is by no-means a Star and so he does not bring his Star mentality with him. What I think he wants is an opportunity to show what he has and talent-wise it is substantial.

 

In the stock market, the old adage is "Buy Low - Sell High".

 

This is exactly the opposite of the circumstance surrounding Julius Thomas, while it totally applies to Rob Housler.

 

Lastly, while the Jags have 61 Mil available to spend in Free Agency, the Jags have so many holes in their roster.

 

If we are to take Gus at his word, then the Jags will bring in close to 15 new players that will make this roster.

 

Perhaps half of those players will come from Free Agency.

 

So if the Jags are to sign 6 to 7 players in Free Agency, it is a good bet that these players will most likely not be the Top Tier Free Agents.

 

Perhaps one or two of these Free Agents could be Top Tier at their position, say like Brian Bulaga, or Jason Pierre Paul , or Jerry Hughes.

 

Yet for the most part, I believe the Free Agent the Jags sign, will be like SenDerrick Marks, Chris Clemons, Roy Miller, Zane Beadles. All quality Free Agents but with something to prove or something to contribute.

 

Jaguar fans want the BIG SEXY NAMES because they recognize them and want their team to be identified with STAR Players.

 

Gus is building something that is special and the players who sign have to see that vision themselves and be ready to be "All In" with their contribution and their place within the structure of the team.

 

The Free Agents that succeed here will become Stars in their own right but they will have found their Stardom within the success of the Jaguars Team Concept, just like the Seattle Seahawks.

Signing rookies isn't going to take up a significant portion of our cap space, which means the bulk of the cap space is going towards re-signing some of our own players to long term deals and towards free agents.  Julius Thomas and Demarco Murray are the most likely "top tier" players that will hit free agency.  Murray's negatives are the amount of touches he's had and the fact that he's in his prime right now and falling off a cliff is likely a season or two away.  That's not really what the Jaguars need in a running back and they may be better suited by spending a 3rd or 4th rounder on the position in what looks like a quality running back class.  

 

I believe that leaves us in a situation that we may be forced into overpaying guys this year, due to the amount of money available to us and to the supposed scarcity of top end talent in free agency this year.  Things will surely get clearer as we approach free agency, but as of right now I'd say it's highly likely the Jaguars make a strong push for Julius Thomas.  If it's strictly about money for Thomas, I think he'll be playing here next year.  

 

The one thing that might change that is if Suh makes it to free agency and the Jaguars covet him enough to give him the Mario Williams type deal which he is due to get from whoever signs him.  If Suh is available and the Jaguars decide to break the bank to bring him here, then Thomas may find the bigger pay day elsewhere.  At any rate, this should be as exciting a free agency period as the Jaguars have ever experienced.  

I would not pay him whatever he is asking because for him to come here we must throw money at him and that probably won't happen. We are very safe with the cap, we aren't one player away (TE) to throw so much money out there for one. One that is Peyton Manning made, I just don't like Peyton Manning made players because everyone knows Peyton makes people around him look good. Like when he was with the Colts got injured sat out and they had the number 1 pick. They got Andrew Luck and somehow made it to the playoffs, so yeah people around Manning and Luck aren't as great as you think they would be.

One thing that would concern me regarding Julius Thomas as a FA is his history of significant injuries.   A fair question is can Thomas stay healthy enough over an extended period of time,   especially if as expected a major investment is needed to secure his services?

The Jaguars' OL isn't good enough yet to be effective run blockers without the help of a tight end. Julius Thomas couldn't block my 81-year-old grandmother, let alone a 250-lb. linebacker. Either the Jags pay him a ton to be replaced by a third tackle on running downs or tolerate one of the worst run blockers in the game--or they sign a tight end that can block along with catching. That's why my money is more on a Charles Clay type being the target here. Not nearly the receiver that Julius Thomas is, but as a blocker, he's light years ahead.

Yeah, we aren't talking about a Ben Utept or a Jacob Tamme.  Thomas is extremely talented. 

 

I am not getting my hopes up though.

I'm of the opinion that Thomas is not all that physically gifted.

Nice write up as usual Bullseye and holy wall of text Stigma!


Thomas got the pre-draft hype as an Antonio Gates type of tight end when he was drafted. Considering he went from a relatively unknown commodity to a fourth round pick is very telling.


In retrospect, I'm surprised he lasted that long to begin with.

Thomas is good but I'm weary of picking up any of Manning's receiving targets.