Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

FiveThirtyEight has put out an end of year graphic for the NFL teams based on their expected points per play metric.

 

Expected points per play isn't my favorite metric, but it is a pretty solid way to get a general feel.

 

Nothing too surprising in any of this, I think we'd all agree our offense was pretty awful and that our defense improved.  Still, it's nice to see a sizable bump in defense-- hopefully next year we'll see a pretty significant bump in offense with maturation and potentially a new scheme.  It's a good way to visualize that even with significant improvement, we're still probably only going to be only middle of the pack offensively and can expect more bumps in the road. I'm hoping for sizable defense increase next year as well.

 

http://i.imgur.com/GfGPjOz.png

 

The graphic is fairly large so I'm linking to it instead of embedding it.

 

Do you see us making any sizable shifts next year?  I'd love to see us move towards the 0.0/0.0 intersection by next year with a couple of games that show us in the upper right quadrant.

Wow! Look at that drop by the DEN Offense.

Frankly I don't even know what I'm looking at here.

Jags

Def Moving in the right direction

Off Dropped a bit(should uptick next year with comp. OC)

Quote:Frankly I don't even know what I'm looking at here.

 

The stat shows essentially how close to adding points an Offense is with any given play, and how close a Defense is at denying a point on any given play with the axes for the Defense being 'Y' and Offense being 'X'.

 

Essentially, if a team moves up and to the right, that's a good thing. If they move down and to the left, that's bad.

Two things that stood out to me on that graph is the actual decrease in Def of Carolina. Does Greg Hardy make that big of a difference? The Saints stood out to me as well. Even through they had an "awful" season, There offense is still elite! Just proves how absolutely terrible their defense was.

I really prefer in depth stats to be on a per drive basis. Scoring faster does not give you more points. Football should be measured in a per possession basis.