Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Does anyone have the strength of schedule rankings currently for the tiebreakers. We possibly might beat the titans, but regardless it would be nice to know where we actually are in relation to the terrible teams around us

This is according to GBNreport.   http://gbnreport.com/

 

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• <i>(7:30 PM):</i><b> Bucs move to #1 ... </b> With Oakland upsetting San Francisco in the Battle by the Bay for its second win of the year there will clearly be a major reshuffling at the top of this week's selection order for the opening round of the 2015 draft. However, with three weeks to go in the regular season there is still a lot of sorting out to do as 5 teams will be tied with 2-11 records. Because they have the weakest strength of schedule of the 5, Tampa Bay would have the first pick if the draft were held this week, followed by Tennessee, Jacksonville, the NY Jets and Oakland, now all the way down to the 5th pick. Meanwhile, the next three picks are unchanged with Washington at #6, followed by the Giants at #7 and Carolina at #8. The change among the latter two picks, though, is that with both the Giants and Panthers winning this week the chances of either moving into the top 5 even if they were to go 0-3 over their final three games went from slim to pretty close to none. The full first-round selection order for this week will be posted after
  
• tomorrow night's Monday night game
  

 

This was confirmed by Peter King in today's MMQB

 

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/08/jj-watt-ho...week-14/2/

 

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T-minus three weeks, and Tampa Bay now leads the Marcus Mariota derby. Oakland’s win over San Francisco takes the Raiders out of the first slot in the 2015 NFL Draft. That leaves five teams at 2-11, vying for the top pick and the right to take Mariota (presumably—considering all the off-field problems swirling around Jameis Winston). As of this morning the top five would fall in this order, based on the won-loss record of the opposition in each team’s 13 games to this point:

1. Tampa Bay. The Bucs would sit and take Mariota, or raffle it for a ransom to a quarterback-needy team.

2. Tennessee. The Titans would be in line for Mariota too.

3. Jacksonville. Knowing GM Dave Caldwell, he’d be in the auction business.

4. New York Jets. You can’t know what the Jets will do until you know the identity of the GM and coach. Odds are both will be different than the incumbents five weeks from now.

5. Oakland. Euphoria over beating San Francisco—except in the guts of the scouts, who will say the right thing, but really: The first pick in the draft is worth far, far more than a morale-boosting meaningless win in December.

Last point here: For Tennessee, it’s New Jersey, New Jersey, with the Jets following the Giants to Nashville this week. (Not New York, New York, because the two teams play and practice and do business in New Jersey.) Why on earth would Ken Whisenhunt, who, presumably, is going to be the coach in 2015, pull out all the stops to try to win this game? Take your medicine, lose, and get the highest pick you can so you can be in the best position possible to take the best quarterback or best player—or trade the pick for a few good ones.

The Titans have to play both the Jets and the Jags and right now if they lose both games and no other team in our W/L grouping wins any more games I project the Jags to draft in the 4th position with 3 wins, (defeating the Titans in two weeks).

 

1. Tampa Bay (2-14)

2. Tennessee (2-14)

3. Oakland (2-14)

4. Jacksonville (3-13)

5. Washington (3-13)

6. New York Jets (3-13)

 

This puts the Jags in position to select either Randy Gregory of Nebraska or Shane Ray of Mizzou.

Quote:The Titans have to play both the Jets and the Jags and right now if they lose both games and no other team in our W/L grouping wins any more games I project the Jags to draft in the 4th position with 3 wins, (defeating the Titans in two weeks).

 

1. Tampa Bay (2-14)

2. Tennessee (2-14)

3. Oakland (2-14)

4. Jacksonville (3-13)

5. Washington (3-13)

6. New York Jets (3-13)

 

This puts the Jags in position to select either Randy Gregory of Nebraska or Shane Ray of Mizzou.

 

That is quite plausible, though I would hate to see Tennessee be in any sort of position to trade down and accumulate picks.

I don't think the trade downs are going to materialize. Mariota has had a great career, but projecting him to the NFL he hasn't had to make NFL throws in that system on a regular basis. While he may have some highlight throws, he hasn't shown the ability (and hasn't been asked to) throw to receivers in tight windows or throw receivers open. Someone will love him and take him early, but I don't see the feeding frenzy many have been envisioning.

 

Winston's stock has also fallen so I'm confident in predicting to trading of future first round picks to move up into the top 5.

I'd be very happy with Gregory.. Now with Pelini gone, Gregory is almost sure to declare for the draft as well.. Not to mention that Gregory was born here in Jax. I'm sure he'd have no problems playing for his home town.. 

I think Oakland can win out potentially if Denver rests their starters week 17.  Latavius gives them an actual ground game.

Quote:That is quite plausible, though I would hate to see Tennessee be in any sort of position to trade down and accumulate picks.

I'd be more worried about them getting Mariota or Winston.

 

Even though I want to beat the Titans no matter what, if we lose to them again this year, it could work out very well for us long term

One more item to toss into the mix. Oakland ends the season at Denver. Denver will in all likelihood have sewn up the division and so it is possible they rest their starters potentially enabling Oakland to win its 3rd game of the season. This would push the Jags up to the 3rd spot and Oakland to the 4th spot, both team with three wins.

 

The Titans may go with the 2nd QB or they might go with Randy Gregory.

 

It is highly likely that the Jags will have their choice of Leonard Williams or Shane Ray at Pick 3.

 

Interestingly, it is Leonard Williams who is from Daytona Beach and not Randy Gregory (from Fishers, In.), that is the hometown guy.

 

Other than the Jets, I can not see another team wanting to move up and draft the 2nd QB.

I know the Raiders have the hardest schedule this season because it includes the Chargers twice, Chiefs twice, Broncos twice, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Browns, Texans, Patriots, Bills, and Dolphins. Even the Rams are not terrible. So the only easy game on their schedule is the Jets.

 

The Jets play against the Patriots twice, Bills twice, Dolphins twice, Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Steelers, Packers and Lions. The Vikings are as good as the Rams. They have a few more easy games to play: the Bears, Raiders, and Titans.

 

What about the Buccaneers? They have the Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Packers and Lions. Most games on their schedule are not difficult because the whole division sucks. So they have the weakest 2014 schedule, not the Titans.

 

We got the Colts twice, Texans twice, Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Eagles. The Titans twice, Giants, and Redskins are the only weak opponents  The Titans got the Chiefs, Jaguars twice, and Jets.

 

So it looks to me like the order will be Buccaneers, Jets, Raiders, Toilet Bowl loser, Toilet Bowl winner if everyone except the Titans or Jaguars never wins another game.

Quote:I think Oakland can win out potentially if Denver rests their starters week 17.  Latavius gives them an actual ground game.

 

Zero chance the Broncos will rest their starters. There is no reason for anybody with a brain to think there is. They will need that game just to win the division title.

Quote:One more item to toss into the mix. Oakland ends the season at Denver. Denver will in all likelihood have sewn up the division and so it is possible they rest their starters potentially enabling Oakland to win its 3rd game of the season. This would push the Jags up to the 3rd spot and Oakland to the 4th spot, both team with three wins.

 

Exactly how is the AFC playoff seeding going to be locked up before Week 17? Even if the Broncos win their division before then, their seed in the playoffs will be affected by that game.

Quote:Zero chance the Broncos will rest their starters. There is no reason for anybody with a brain to think there is. They will need that game just to win the division title.

This post makes zero sense.  They are tied for the best record in the AFC right now.  If they are ahead of NEP that week and have locked up home field advantage, there's going to be a good chance they can rest their starters.  It doesn't matter that it's a divisional game if they have a better record than everyone.

Quote:This post makes zero sense.  They are tied for the best record in the AFC right now.  If they are ahead of NEP that week and have locked up home field advantage, there's going to be a good chance they can rest their starters.  It doesn't matter that it's a divisional game if they have a better record than everyone.

 

Currently the Chargers are only two games behind with three games left, so mathematically, they could steal the AFC West title. Also, the Colts are only one game behind Denver right now and can mathematically jump over the Broncos with three games left. The Broncos are not going to say any chance of these events happening is unlikely, so it is OK to risk losing. Why would any team do that?

 

Even more important. the Broncos lost their game at New England, so the Patriots currently own homefield advantage and Denver only has a bye week. Obviously they are not going to settle for that if they are still tied with the Patriots after Week 16 and therefore will have a do-or-die attitude going into the Raiders game.

I feel that Denver will wrap up the 2nd seed in the AFC which means that they will host a playoff game against a wildcard team. That wildcard team may just come out of the AFC North. Thus, with nothing to gain except the risk of injury against a Raider team that hates the Broncos, I feel there is a good chance that the Broncos will indeed rest some of their starters since almost every team is nicked up at the end of the season.

Quote:I feel that Denver will wrap up the 2nd seed in the AFC which means that they will host a playoff game against a wildcard team. That wildcard team may just come out of the AFC North. Thus, with nothing to gain except the risk of injury against a Raider team that hates the Broncos, I feel there is a good chance that the Broncos will indeed rest some of their starters since almost every team is nicked up at the end of the season.

 

The #2 seed gets a bye week.

Quote:Currently the Chargers are only two games behind with three games left, so mathematically, they could steal the AFC West title. Also, the Colts are only one game behind Denver right now and can mathematically jump over the Broncos with three games left. The Broncos are not going to say any chance of these events happening is unlikely, so it is OK to risk losing. Why would any team do that?

 

Even more important. the Broncos lost their game at New England, so the Patriots currently own homefield advantage and Denver only has a bye week. Obviously they are not going to settle for that if they are still tied with the Patriots after Week 16 and therefore will have a do-or-die attitude going into the Raiders game.

And mathematically they could be 2 games ahead of New England by that point and have nothing to play for.  Unless you have a crystal ball that foresees everyone's record after week 16, you have no idea what will happen.  Anything is possible at this point.  "Anyone with a brain" can see that.

Hey, this is all conjecture. If the Raiders don't win a 3rd game, I project the Jags will select 4th in Rd 1.

 

I fully expect that neither the Bucs nor Titans will win another game, meaning the Titans lose to the Jags and Jets giving both the Jags and Jets 3 wins.

 

If the Bucs and Titans take a QB, then I think the Raiders will take Leonard Williams - DT/DE - USC.

 

That will leave the Jags with a choice between Randy Gregory or Shane Ray.

 

I fully expect Shane Ray to WOW at the Combine and run a sub 4.6/40 and jump through the roof.

 

I think the Jags will take Shane Ray and make him the next Dwight Freeney type DE for the Jags.