12-02-2014, 08:21 AM
12-02-2014, 08:22 AM
Quote:Wait. Did he start this thread right after we went for two? lol. We won. Who cares?
It was too high...
12-02-2014, 09:52 AM
Quote:It was too high...
lol.. huh?
12-02-2014, 09:58 AM
Quote:lol.. huh?
Sorry, just a really bad major league reference. Don't ask my why, but your comment reminded me of that scene
12-02-2014, 01:21 PM
Quote:lol.. huh?
Major League quote if I am not mistaken.
12-03-2014, 10:33 AM
Quote:Football isn't real life. It's a game….with scoring…. which entails numbers….. which means analytics aren't arbitrary, they are logical to apply.
Still… I like your statement about "gut" vs. incorrectly applied analysis.
You'll also be happy to know that Caldwell and Bradley both seem to look at this analytics thing with narrowed eyes. They might just be squinting though. Not sure.
Thing is, analytics is still in its infancy stage. Football is also not a strict numbers games, like baseball which lends itself to analytics naturally. There's a lot of different things that affects a play. Sure, its great that they are using analytics to factor in their decision making, but if the stats are being interpreted incorrectly then it does us no good.
Just take a look at that analytics that Tony Khan triumphed when we drafted Luke. Remember when they released that stat showing that Gratz challenges passes thrown his way?
12-03-2014, 11:03 AM
Quote:Thing is, analytics is still in its infancy stage. Football is also not a strict numbers games, like baseball which lends itself to analytics naturally. There's a lot of different things that affects a play. Sure, its great that they are using analytics to factor in their decision making, but if the stats are being interpreted incorrectly then it does us no good.
Just take a look at that analytics that Tony Khan triumphed when we drafted Luke. Remember when they released that stat showing that Gratz challenges passes thrown his way?
All good points - and of course football isn't as "quantifiable" as baseball due to the wider range of variables and scenarios - but:
Two point conversions vs. FG seems to be an area of the game that actually lends itself much mare naturally to analytics than the examples you listed.
Aside from the analytics, I just think when faced with:
Make a FG - need a TD to win
Make the conversion - FG ties it
Miss conversion - still need TD to win
The decision isn't a tough one - nor is it terribly risky. The obvious detraction is that it may have been too early to think this way. Normally I'd agree - but not with the Jags w/L record.
12-03-2014, 11:11 AM
Quote:All good points - and of course football isn't as "quantifiable" as baseball due to the wider range of variables and scenarios - but:
Two point conversions vs. FG seems to be an area of the game that actually lends itself much mare naturally to analytics than the examples you listed.
Aside from the analytics, I just think when faced with:
Make a FG - need a TD to win
Make the conversion - FG ties it
Miss conversion - still need TD to win
The decision isn't a tough one - nor is it terribly risky. The obvious detraction is that it may have been too early to think this way. Normally I'd agree - but not with the Jags w/L record.
It was too early to think that way. Sure, if you want to qualify with "well, Jags only have 1 win" then you might as well throw reasoning out the window and just go for it at your own whim...after all, we only have 1 win right?
12-03-2014, 11:42 AM
Quote:It was too early to think that way. Sure, if you want to qualify with "well, Jags only have 1 win" then you might as well throw reasoning out the window and just go for it at your own whim...after all, we only have 1 win right?
You're hyperbolizing my point, but…. Sure. Given the implications of the point differential (missed conversion and extra point both leave you needing a TD) and the record - I can support trying the conversion one offensive possession earlier than you might with a more competitive team.
I'm not saying "kick it onside every time." I'm saying I support the decision to go for the conversion six minutes earlier than another team might.
12-03-2014, 12:57 PM
Quote:I liked the call.I did too, i mean why not the season is shot one game loss wont hurt this team but the experince of going for it & getting it is great.
Not getting it is still a learning experince and it shows he has the guts to make the risky calls.
12-03-2014, 04:54 PM
Quote:I was totally against it at the time. However, in formulating this post, I looked it up, and according to this link, the average success rate over the years in the NFL on a 2 point conversion is 50%.Its how often the Jaguars can pull it off.
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/...tics/2014/
So that means the expected return on a 2 pointer is about the same as on a 1 point kick: 1 point. (Of course, that is assuming you are an average team.)
So I can't criticize it.
We don't have tight ends that catch, which is the usual primary target in the red zone.
We have an inexperienced QB who rarely throws a fade pass.
We have two running backs, one with a recovering foot issue, the other a speedy skinny guy who makes
yardage by making people miss. Hard to do that with everyone bunched up at the 2.
we have an offensive line that is not exactly blowing people off the ball to allow a QB run.
Given those analytics, the jags should never go for 2 unless time is a factor.
As was proven out in the actual game.
If I can figure that out, Coach Bradley and Fisch should be able to, and that scares me.
12-03-2014, 07:59 PM
Quote:This dude is Muschamp, NFL version. Stick to being a DC. Not a HC. SMH
Did anyone explain this yet? If not I will. It's pretty obvious if you understand the football scoring system.
With the score at 21-16, there is a 5 point difference. If you kick the extra point, you're at a 4 point difference which means you still need two scores to win or tie. If you get two, you're one score from tying the game up. If you miss on the two points, you're still two scores away from winning or tying, so the loss of the extra point is irrelevant.
With the score at 22-21, if you kick the extra point, the Giants can still win with one score. If you go for two and make it, now you've made it a two score deficit. If you miss, the Giants can still win with one score, same as if you'd kicked the extra point, making the extra point irrelevant.
It's a shame I have to explain something this elementary.