2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS (
last week's prices in parentheses)
ALABAMA 5-1 (7-1)
OLE MISS 5-1 (8-1)
GEORGIA 6-1 (10-1)
FLORIDA ST 7-1 (5-1)
OREGON 7-1 (10-1)
MICHIGAN ST 7-1
MISSISSIPPI ST 7-1
OHIO ST 10-1
AUBURN 10-1
TCU 15-1 (50-1)
BAYLOR 25-1 (12-1)
KANSAS ST 25-1 (50-1)
NOTRE DAME 30-1 (12-1)
NEBRASKA 50-1 (60-1)
USC 60-1 (75-1)
UCLA 75-1 (100-1)
ARIZONA ST 75-1 (100-1)
CLEMSON 100-1 (300-1)
ARIZONA 100-1
OKLAHOMA 100-1 (7-1)
UTAH 100-1 (500-1)
LSU 300-1
DUKE 500-1 (1000-1)
WISCONSIN 1000-1
STANFORD 1000-1
OKLAHOMA ST 1000-1 (60-1)
MISSOURI 1000-1
LOUISVILLE 5000-1
GEORGIA TECH 9999-1 (1000-1)
OREGON ST 9999-1 (1000-1)
BOISE ST 9999-1
WASHINGTON 9999-1 (500-1)
IOWA 9999-1 (200-1)
FIELD 300-1
I really don't think they're accounting enough for the fact that all those SEC schools still have a lot of games against each other. With 4 very good teams in the playoffs you'd expect the best odds of winning two in row to become champions close to 4:1 given you've made the playoffs. Simple math says they're giving Alabama and Ole Miss approximately an 80% chance of making the playoffs and Georgia a 67% chance. The next batch at 7:1 would all be about 57%.
Not including the 10:1 or higher, there's an implied expected 4.55 teams in the playoff. Once you include those, the number goes up even further.
Vegas always overstates the odds because it increases their profit margin, but this is WAY over. Especially for the SEC teams. Based on the given odds, the expected number of SEC teams in the playoff is about 3.23 once you add in LSU at about 40%.
Bad bets all around except for the top non-SEC teams.
Quote:I really don't think they're accounting enough for the fact that all those SEC schools still have a lot of games against each other. With 4 very good teams in the playoffs you'd expect the best odds of winning two in row to become champions close to 4:1 given you've made the playoffs. Simple math says they're giving Alabama and Ole Miss approximately an 80% chance of making the playoffs and Georgia a 67% chance. The next batch at 7:1 would all be about 57%.
Not including the 10:1 or higher, there's an implied expected 4.55 teams in the playoff. Once you include those, the number goes up even further.
Vegas always overstates the odds because it increases their profit margin, but this is WAY over. Especially for the SEC teams. Based on the given odds, the expected number of SEC teams in the playoff is about 3.23 once you add in LSU at about 40%.
Bad bets all around except for the top non-SEC teams.
I think thats what they are accounting for though...they know at least one of those schools is going to make the championship. If its up to Vegas and they think whatever SEC team makes it out of that conference has the best shot, then thats how they are making the odds.
Either way though, if you increase the odds of any SEC team winning within the playoffs you have to decrease it for all the non-SEC teams. That's still going to give you much more than 4 expected teams in the playoffs with their odds. HUGE profit margin for them and bad bets for us.
Edit: And for the SEC, either they'd have to expect the SEC to get two teams in with each of those teams having about 30-40% chance of winning, or one team in with about a 75% chance of winning. Either of those seem way on the high side.