Opening line had the Jaguars +4 and has since moved to +5.5.
Over/Under opened at 43.5 and is set at 43.
I'll explain this for those that don't understand betting odds.
A bet placed on the Jaguars means that they must either win or lose by no more than 5.5 points in order to win the bet. On the flip-side, a bet placed on the Dolphins means that the Dolphins must win by more than 5.5 points.
The over/under number is the total number of points scored in the game.
At this point in time, if was going to bet on the game, I would probably select the Jaguars to cover the spread. I just feel like this is going to be a close game. I would probably be inclined to go with the under because I just don't feel that it will be a high scoring game, somewhere around 20-17.
Thoughts on how you would bet this game?
If the line is going UP its telling you to take the Dolphins.
Similar to last week as well.
It went up after Poz went down. Very similar to how the line shifted last week after the Browns lost Mack.
Quote:If the line is going UP its telling you to take the Dolphins.
True. But I think the line moving up is simply due to injury news. My thoughts might change as the week plays out. I haven't looked at any of Miami's news yet so I don't know the status of their team.
Quote:Opening line had the Jaguars +4 and has since moved to +5.5.
Over/Under opened at 43.5 and is set at 43.
I'll explain this for those that don't understand betting odds.
A bet placed on the Jaguars means that they must either win or lose by no more than 5.5 points in order to win the bet. On the flip-side, a bet placed on the Dolphins means that the Dolphins must win by more than 5.5 points.
The over/under number is the total number of points scored in the game.
At this point in time, if was going to bet on the game, I would probably select the Jaguars to cover the spread. I just feel like this is going to be a close game. I would probably be inclined to go with the under because I just don't feel that it will be a high scoring game, somewhere around 20-17.
Thoughts on how you would bet this game?
I'm not a gambling man, so I don't understand spreads and lines and such. Going by what you said, if the Jags win by a TD and a bet was place on the Jags, you'd lose? I thought it was kind of like "spotting" points to the underdog.
Quote:I'm not a gambling man, so I don't understand spreads and lines and such. Going by what you said, if the Jags win by a TD and a bet was place on the Jags, you'd lose? I thought it was kind of like "spotting" points to the underdog.
No. The +5.5 means that if you place a bet on the Jaguars, they must either win or lose by no more than 5.5 points. Even if they win by just 1 point or lose by a field goal you would win the bet.
If you place a bet on the Dolphins, they must win by more than 5.5 points (either 2 field goals or a touchdown).
Quote:No. The +5.5 means that if you place a bet on the Jaguars, they must either win or lose by no more than 5.5 points.
I only quoted part because only one part I'm not understanding. The rest is what I already understood. I guess the part that is confusing me is the "win" by 5.5 part. You say the Jags must WIN or lose by no more than 5.5. I thought if they straight up won regardless of how many you'd still win the bet? In other words if the final score was 28-10 Jags, it reads as if you'd lose since it's more than 5.5 points.
If I have it wrong I apologize, I'm not trying to be difficult. I just wanted to make it clear. Again, not a gambling man, so pardon the my ignorance and thanks for you patience.
Quote:If the line is going UP its telling you to take the Dolphins.
Not necessarily. Depends on who made the line move. Regular betters or the pros.
Super bowl line moved from Seattle -3 to demver + 2.5
Quote:I only quoted part because only one part I'm not understanding. The rest is what I already understood. I guess the part that is confusing me is the "win" by 5.5 part. You say the Jags must WIN or lose by no more than 5.5. I thought if they straight up won regardless of how many you'd still win the bet? In other words if the final score was 28-10 Jags, it reads as if you'd lose since it's more than 5.5 points.
If I have it wrong I apologize, I'm not trying to be difficult. I just wanted to make it clear. Again, not a gambling man, so pardon the my ignorance and thanks for you patience.
No need to apologize.
If the Jaguars win, no matter what the score is, you would win the bet. If the Jaguars lose by LESS than 5.5 (as in if they lost by a field goal) you would still win the bet. In other words, in order to win the bet, the Jaguars need to outright win the game or lose by no more than 5.5 points.
Quote:No need to apologize.
If the Jaguars win, no matter what the score is, you would win the bet. If the Jaguars lose by LESS than 5.5 (as in if they lost by a field goal) you would still win the bet. In other words, in order to win the bet, the Jaguars need to outright win the game or lose by no more than 5.5 points.
Ok, that is what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up. I was getting tripped up on on the wording of it.
Quote:Ok, that is what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up. I was getting tripped on on the wording of it.
That's O.K. I very rarely gamble or bet myself, but I do look at the odds every week. I'm pretty much a geek and numbers/odds is kind of a fascination for me.
Simply put:
If it's Jags +5.5
You add 5.5 points to the Jaguars score.
Meaning if they score 14, the spread increases that score to 19.5
If they score 0, the spread increases that score to 5.5
Let's say Sunday, the Dolphins score 24 points. That means if you bet on the Jags, you need them to score at least 19 points.
Now let's say Sunday the dolphins score only 10 points. That means if you bet on the Jags, you need them to score at least 5 points.
On the other hand... let's say you bet on the Dolphins. If the Jags score 7 points, the Dolphins need to score at least 13.
If the Jaguars score 24 points, that means the Dolphins need to score at least 30.
I would take +5.5 points pretty good value there. even if we lose by a field goal you still win your bet. In this game the under is a safe bet since dolphins have good D and we have been playing better D also. But over and under is always risky. Take the +5.5! Line is moving in favor of the Dolphins because they were at -4 and majority of the bets are on -4 so now its -5.5. -4 was also a great value but now take +5.5!
Never heard such in-depth discussion about a points spread. I've always viewed it as a handicap basically. You're spotting the Jags 5.5 points to start the game. That's all.
Miami is averaging 24.5 points per game. I see it as a 27-14 or 24-10 type of game. I'm not touching the over/under but I would bet Dolphins. The team is coming together a bit in the last few weeks. Lost to the Packers in the last 6 seconds at home and then went to Chicago and kicked their butts pretty good. No disrespect, but I see a 9-7 or 10-6 team paying a 4-12 team. Home field is usually 3 points. So Vegas says the Dolphins are 8.5 points better on level ground. While Jacksonville has shown improvement, I don't think they are as good as Chicago. I will be surprised if Miami is not up by 2 scores at the end of the half.
Quote:Miami is averaging 24.5 points per game. I see it as a 27-14 or 24-10 type of game. I'm not touching the over/under but I would bet Dolphins. The team is coming together a bit in the last few weeks. Lost to the Packers in the last 6 seconds at home and then went to Chicago and kicked their butts pretty good. No disrespect, but I see a 9-7 or 10-6 team paying a 4-12 team. Home field is usually 3 points. So Vegas says the Dolphins are 8.5 points better on level ground. While Jacksonville has shown improvement, I don't think they are as good as Chicago. I will be surprised if Miami is not up by 2 scores at the end of the half.
I think you may be surprised. From what I've gathered of Miami, seems like they rely on the run game. Tannehill is most effective with an effective running game. You shut the running game down, you put the game on Tannehill's shoulders, and I don't think that's his game. Jags have improved in run defense by leaps and bounds so far this season. I think they'll take the running game away from the Dolphins, which will force them into a lot of 3rd and longs. They can do that and Tannehill's going to have a long day. It'll be a low scoring game. I still think Miami pulls out the win, but don't be surprised to see a 17-14 final score.
Quote:I think you may be surprised. From what I've gathered of Miami, seems like they rely on the run game. Tannehill is most effective with an effective running game. You shut the running game down, you put the game on Tannehill's shoulders, and I don't think that's his game. Jags have improved in run defense by leaps and bounds so far this season. I think they'll take the running game away from the Dolphins, which will force them into a lot of 3rd and longs. They can do that and Tannehill's going to have a long day. It'll be a low scoring game. I still think Miami pulls out the win, but don't be surprised to see a 17-14 final score.
Naa. I watch pretty closely. Miami is not a power team. They pass to set up the run. Take the run away like Chicago did pretty well last week. They will read option and screen pass and dink and dunk 5 yards at a time. It has been 3 years since Miami has depended on a run game. They are ranked 4th in rushing because of the pass.
Regardless, without Poz and Branch, and without Cleveland coach Pettine to make stupid strategic calls on 4th down plays, I don't like this situation.
Cleveland was without its entire defensive line, they had a stupid head coach who made boneheaded decisions, and their QB missed wide open receivers.
I don't think I'd bet the Jags +5.5. I think I'd want at least 7.