Quote:It's dangerous to extrapolate such a small sample size.
It's how Marcedes got that big contract.
Gene Smith's logic: "Marcedes caught 10 TDs this year... that means if I resign him for another 6 seasons he'll catch 60 TDs for us! HOW CAN I PASS THAT UP!?!??!"
It's the same kind of numbers he put up in 8ish games last year. I don't think that's a small sample. You do. We've been through this before. Moving on.
Quote:It's the same kind of numbers he put up in 8ish games last year. I don't think that's a small sample. You do. We've been through tho before. Moving on.
No need to move on just yet.
If we flip a coin 100 times and at some point in that sequence we get 10 out of 10 tries coming up heads does that mean that the coin was actually more likely to come up heads or does that mean that a statistically unusual but quite likely over a large enough sample size event occurred?
Poz will shut down the rbs. Cyprien, Ball, Gratz will knock out anybody that runs in their zone. Branch, Marks, Clemmons, Bryant will strike fear to Rivers.
Quote:Poz will shut down the RBs. Cyprien, Ball, Gratz will knock out anybody that runs in their zone. Branch, Marks, Clemmons, Bryant will strike fear to Rivers.
Why couldn't they do that to Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck?
Quote:No need to move on just yet.
If we flip a coin 100 times and at some point in that sequence we get 10 out of 10 tries coming up heads does that mean that the coin was actually more likely to come up heads or does that mean that a statistically unusual but quite likely over a large enough sample size event occurred?
Dude it's football. Not a statistics course. I'm able to deduce from watching a a tight end play football in multiple games that he has the ability to play at a certain level. I've made my mind on the matter. I don't care how many games he has to prove it in your mind. I've already decided.
BTW - Do you think I don't know the laws of probability? C'Mon.
Quote:Dude it's football. Not a statistics course. I'm able to deduce from watching a a tight end play football in multiple games that he has the ability to play at a certain level. I've made my mind on the matter. I don't care how many games he has to prove it in your mind. I've already decided.
BTW - Do you think I don't know the laws of probability? C'Mon.
You apparently don't if you think having a handful of passable games in one season is statistically meaningful.
However, I have good news, Bortles is the starter moving forward so I fully expect him to make Marcedes look better in every area, thus assisting your position, though I still expect him to only be the 3rd or 4th most productive receiver.
Quote:Why couldn't they do that to Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck?
Bortles is now the QB. The players want to play for Bortles not Henne.
Quote:Bortles is now the QB. The players want to play for Bortles not Henne.
How can the players not want to play for someone they voted captain? Chad Henne is a great leader, just not a very good quarterback.
The diference is intangibles. Blake Bortles has the "it" factor Henne lacks and a higher football IQ.
Quote:You apparently don't if you think having a handful of passable games in one season is statistically meaningful.
You are missing the point. I am not using math or probability to make the determination. You are. I am using evaluation of his skill.
I've seen enough from him to believe he can continue to perform at this level - assuming the injury doesn't set him back severely. You want to bring math into it. I don't think it's even remotely necessary.
Quote:How can the players not want to play for someone they voted captain? Chad Henne is a great leader, just not a very good quarterback.
The diference is intangibles. Blake Bortles has the "it" factor Henne lacks and a higher football IQ.
Whoever voted Henne as a captain should be cut.
Quote:You are missing the point. I am not using math or probability to make the determination. You are. I am using evaluation of his skill.
I've seen enough from him to believe he can continue to perform at this level - assuming the injury doesn't set him back severely. You want to bring math into it. I don't think it's even remotely necessary.
I think you're biased in your appraisal.
He's a marginal starter at best at this point in his career whose best attribute is teams facing us not considering him enough of a threat to actively plan for him.
However, at this point I concur that we must agree to disagree on him.
Quote:You apparently don't if you think having a handful of passable games in one season is statistically meaningful.
The comparison to a coin flip is bad for a number of reasons. Statistical probability and trend analysis are related but not equivalent.
A player is not a coin. A good player who is playing well should continue more or less to perform similarly from game to game unless some event has an impact on his performance (health, going up against an unusually talented opponent, benching, etc.) That's what allows us to extrapolate with some degree of confidence.
Quote:The comparison to a coin flip is bad for a number of reasons. Statistical probability and trend analysis are related but not equivalent.
A player is not a coin. A good player who is playing well should continue more or less to perform similarly from game to game unless some event has an impact on his performance (health, going up against an unusually talented opponent, benching, etc.) That's what allows us to extrapolate with some degree of confidence.
My point is there is a significant degree of randomness in the per game performance of any player.
The important part is the trend, not the individual games, and the trend for Marcedes is that of a marginal receiving TE.
We could go back and cherry pick games where Chad Henne or Gabbert looked pretty decent, same for Jason Hill or Mike Thomas.
Marcedes has had the good fortune of being signed long term and to be considered a low enough priority to not be replaced up to this point.
A player isn't a coin, but the variance of conditions over a single game have a large impact on performance. If the DB falls down and Marcedes catches a long TD pass does that make him a good player, or did he just have a good statistical performance because an unusual situation happened?
However, I expect the rising tide of Bortles to raise all ships, including Marcedes.