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Awhile back I saw an article stating that every BCS champion had at least 50% of their recruiting classes as 4 or 5 star recruits or Blue Chips for the previous 4 years. This rule really proved its merit last year as Auburn and FSU were both part of the 9 teams that fit the criteria despite no one considering Auburn a preseason favorite. The others were Alabama, UF, LSU, Notre Dame, USC, Ohio State, and Texas. Looking at Auburn's example, I figured I'd find the teams that have been recruiting well that have perhaps been underperforming and could break out this year.

 

For the upcoming season the teams that fit the recruiting profile of a BCS champion are:

 

#2 Alabama - 67.7% Blue Chip rate

#15 USC - 67.1% Blue Chip rate (However has about 20 fewer commitments than these others due to probation)

#6 Ohio State - 63.2% Blue Chip rate

#13 LSU - 58.1% Blue Chip rate

Unranked UF - 56.8% Blue Chip rate

#1 FSU - 56.7% Blue Chip rate

#5 Auburn - 56.5% Blue Chip rate

#17 Notre Dame - 55.2% Blue Chip rate (However has about 10 fewer commitments for no reason I can find)

#24 Texas - 54.5% Blue Chip rate

#12 UGA - 51.5% Blue Chip rate

 

This leads me to think UF and Texas are underrated and could be in the hunt given they avoid the ever unpredictable injury bugs and/or bad QB play. I'm seeing a playoff including SEC champ, FSU, Ohio State, and PAC 12 champ which won't be Oregon.

 

The next tier that are between 40% and 50% include:

 

Unranked Michigan 47.7%

#7 UCLA 47.6%

#11 Stanford 46.4%

Unranked Tennessee 45.0%

#4 Oregon 41.0%

#20 TAMU 40.9%

 

Michigan's coaching will hold them back again, but Tennessee is dangerous and TAMU has more young talent than people realize. TAMU has often been cited as overrated this year, but I disagree.

 

Notable teams not included in the above list include:

 

#3 Oklahoma 39.8%

#8 Michigan State 19.0%

#9 South Carolina 33.3%

#10 Baylor 10.2%

#16 Clemson 39.4%

Unranked UM 31.9%

 

I would mark Baylor down for a collapse, but other than OU and Texas there's no one to threaten them. Same for Michigan State. Despite being very thin there isn't enough talent in the Big 10 to give them a lot of losses. But they will be stomped by Ohio State again. Despite losing a lot, Clemson will be good again, and UM could have a breakout year if they find a QB.

 

 

Great Post and one of the primary reasons college football is so lopsided.

Just curious as to why you say "Michigan's coaching will hold them back again."


Rich Rod left our program in shambles and completely neglected the offensive and defensive lines on the recruiting trail. Hard to run a pro style offense with what Rich Rod left. Hoke finally has his guys in the system and in the trenches, so this should be his judgement year.... Not last year or the year before.

Also, Michigan fired their stagnant OC, Al Borges, and replaced him with former Alabama OC Doug Nussmeier. That can only help.

Quote:Also, Michigan fired their stagnant OC, Al Borges, and replaced him with former Alabama OC Doug Nussmeier. That can only help.

 

I wasn't aware Michigan had so much turnover. Chalk it up to southeast bias. That could make them more dangerous than I anticipated.

Quote:Also, Michigan fired their stagnant OC, Al Borges, and replaced him with former Alabama OC Doug Nussmeier. That can only help.

Alabama wasn't really known for their high power offenses.  Even with the best recruiting classes in the nation, I was never too impressed with what Alabama did.  They should have been rolling teams more than they were.

Quote:Alabama wasn't really known for their high power offenses.  Even with the best recruiting classes in the nation, I was never too impressed with what Alabama did.  They should have been rolling teams more than they were.

 

Maybe not, but Nussmeier can't be any worse than Al Borges was. Nuss will also bring a much better understanding of play-calling for a pro-style offense. Borges made my eyes bleed at times.

 

FWIW, Nuss was only there for two seasons (2012 and 2013).

 

2007: 25.0 ppg

2008: 30.1 ppg

2009: 31.1 ppg

2010: 33.4 ppg

2011: 35.2 ppg

2012: 37.6 ppg

2013: 37.2 ppg

 

 

Now, I think that mostly is attributed to the ridiculous amount of talent Alabama has been putting through that program, but it at least it shows Nuss was competent.

 

Prior to being at Alabama, Nuss was the OC at Washington from 2009 to 2011.

 

2008: 13.2 ppg

2009: 26.1 ppg

2010: 21.8 ppg

2011: 33.7 ppg

 

 

I don't think he is going be a savior, but he should be better than Al Borges. To be fair, Borges turned around San Diego St.'s offense a few years ago, too, so who really knows.

Quote:Maybe not, but Nussmeier can't be any worse than Al Borges was. Nuss will also bring a much better understanding of play-calling for a pro-style offense. Borges made my eyes bleed at times.


FWIW, Nuss was only there for two seasons (2012 and 2013).


2007: 25.0 ppg

2008: 30.1 ppg

2009: 31.1 ppg

2010: 33.4 ppg

2011: 35.2 ppg
2012: 37.6 ppg
2013: 37.2 ppg



Now, I think that mostly is attributed to the ridiculous amount of talent Alabama has been putting through that program, but it at least it shows Nuss was competent.


Prior to being at Alabama, Nuss was the OC at Washington from 2009 to 2011.


2008: 13.2 ppg
2009: 26.1 ppg
2010: 21.8 ppg
2011: 33.7 ppg



I don't think he is going be a savior, but he should be better than Al Borges. To be fair, Borges turned around San Diego St.'s offense a few years ago, too, so who really knows.

I think Michigan will be a lot better offensively with Nussmeier, and another year of Hokes recruits.

I'll be very interested to see how Florida's offense does with a new OC and whether Muschamp puts his hands all over the offense again.