Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:Are we really comparing a practice squad guy to the starting back?

I'd be very surprised if he didn't make the roster. If he were put on the practice squad, he'd be snatched up instantly. Absolute steal in the 7th.

Quote:I'd be very surprised if he didn't make the roster. If he were put on the practice squad, he'd be snatched up instantly. Absolute steal in the 7th.

 

He was the 19th RB selected in a crappy RB class.    I highly doubt he suddenly becomes a hot commodity among the NFL personnel community when just a few months ago they didn't even think he was worth one of the top 221 picks.

Quote:I'm a big UCF fan and I watched a lot of Storm Johnson.  I thought when we didnt take him in the 3rd/4th there was no hope of getting him.  I think his fumbling issues (8 fumbles in 2013) made him drop, and I listened to the segment of Gus mic'd up and he was really pushing that on him when he ran the ball to hold it high and tight.

 

If he can fix those problems, the future is bright for him.  He was taken out of a few games and missed a lot of time because of those issues.  He almost single handedly gave away the USF game with his fumbles....I almost lost my mind.

 

I actually just found this by googling.  Interesting read put together by what looks like a fan.

 

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2014/0...fl_27.html

 

 

The hands certainly didn't help, but the bottomline is he's not an exceptionally talented back and he runs a 4.6.    You  find a few anomalies like Alfred Morris (playing under Shannahan's system) and Frank Gore or Eddie Lacy (rehabing injuries in the pre-draft process) who ran slow times in the pre-draft process and later become productive backs, but by and large it's hard to make it in the NFL as a RB with 4.6 speed.   You look at the 1000 yard rushers in the NFL last year ... Shady McCoy (4.5), Matt Forte (4.44), Jamaal Charles (4.38), Adrian Pederson (4.4), Marshawn Lynch (4.42), Ryan Matthews (4.32), DeMarco Murray (4.41), Chris Johnson (4.24), Reggie Bush (4.37).     When you're running 4.6 you're looked at as a platoon back, and those guys are a dime a dozen who will have to make their way on special teams and pick up pass protection concepts quicker than their peers to earn playing time. 

I think it's a little too early to talk about a 7th round rookie earning a starting job over a multi-million dollar free agent acquisition who has done nothing but impress since getting here.  Honestly, I think Storm's best shot is to be a better option than Todman or Robinson.  Depending on how many TE's and FB's the team keeps though it shouldn't be hard to keep 4 RB's if you're looking to develop one or two of them.  

Quote:The hands certainly didn't help, but the bottomline is he's not an exceptionally talented back and he runs a 4.6.    You  find a few anomalies like Alfred Morris (playing under Shannahan's system) and Frank Gore or Eddie Lacy (rehabing injuries in the pre-draft process) who ran slow times in the pre-draft process and later become productive backs, but by and large it's hard to make it in the NFL as a RB with 4.6 speed.   You look at the 1000 yard rushers in the NFL last year ... Shady McCoy (4.5), Matt Forte (4.44), Jamaal Charles (4.38), Adrian Pederson (4.4), Marshawn Lynch (4.42), Ryan Matthews (4.32), DeMarco Murray (4.41), Chris Johnson (4.24), Reggie Bush (4.37).     When you're running 4.6 you're looked at as a platoon back, and those guys are a dime a dozen who will have to make their way on special teams and pick up pass protection concepts quicker than their peers to earn playing time. 

 

Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40 yard dash (source - https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=ch...040%20time).  That time has nothing to do with being elusive and recognizing/exploiting holes created by the Oline.

Quote:Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40 yard dash (source - https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=ch...040%20time).  That time has nothing to do with being elusive and recognizing/exploiting holes created by the Oline.

 

Yes, we call this "anomaly hunting".    I'm sure someone has hit 21 after hitting on 18, that doesn't mean it's a good strategy for playing blackjack.   For every Jerry Rice, there are thousands of WRs who ran 4.7 or slower who couldn't cut it because they were too slow.     Trying to make a living in the NFL as an personnel man or scout betting on anomalies will leave you unemployed exceptionally fast.   

 

Like I said, there are tried and true notable decades old anomaly examples that people throw out (though few are eager to trot out the thousands that proved the rule, because they don't make good stories), and maybe some drills are irrelevant for some positions.  However, it's near impossible to ignore the correlation between 40 yard dash and productive NFL runningbacks without just trying to throw out anomalies to deflect from the overall body of data.    

 

Or to put it another way, if 40 times are irrelevant for running backs, why did almost every 1,000 yard back in the NFL last year run in the 4.4s or better?      Why don't we see more runningbacks who run 4.6+ running for 1,000 yard seasons if it's so meaningless?    Because "recognizing/exploiting holes" is bare minimum qualifications for a runningback in the NFL.   That might be good enough for a end of roster/platoon back.    Featured high end NFL RBs recognize/exploit holes and then take a 4 yard gain for a 30+ yard gain.    It's hard to do that when you can't outrun anyone. 

Most people see storm johnson as a backup RB and never being the main featured back, but anything can happen.

Quote:The hands certainly didn't help, but the bottomline is he's not an exceptionally talented back and he runs a 4.6. You find a few anomalies like Alfred Morris (playing under Shannahan's system) and Frank Gore or Eddie Lacy (rehabing injuries in the pre-draft process) who ran slow times in the pre-draft process and later become productive backs, but by and large it's hard to make it in the NFL as a RB with 4.6 speed. You look at the 1000 yard rushers in the NFL last year ... Shady McCoy (4.5), Matt Forte (4.44), Jamaal Charles (4.38), Adrian Pederson (4.4), Marshawn Lynch (4.42), Ryan Matthews (4.32), DeMarco Murray (4.41), Chris Johnson (4.24), Reggie Bush (4.37). When you're running 4.6 you're looked at as a platoon back, and those guys are a dime a dozen who will have to make their way on special teams and pick up pass protection concepts quicker than their peers to earn playing time.

Where did you get 4.6? He ran 4.50 at the combine.

Quote:Where did you get 4.6? He ran 4.50 at the combine.

Yeah, measurable wise he stacks up with Lesean McCoy in most categories

seemed to pull away from people on that kick return in the scrimmage.

(granted he would have been tackled around midfield.) but still showed a nice burst

Very unlikely that Storm can take the starting job but its not like he's trying to take the job from a prime MJD or Matt Forte. 

 

Gerhart could be good but he could also be a FA bust who simply has enjoyed success behind AP and from not having teams gameplan for him. Everyone is so hyped for Gerhart but watching him at Stanford and in limited time with Minn i dont feel impressed.He's done nothing special and doesnt really carry any special attributes like visible patience in the hole, amazing bursts or cutbacks etc.

 

 For example a poster is talking about Storm's 40 time well what did Gerhart run in the 40? Cause he's certainly not nearly as fast as every back he listed and its not even close. Storm is better at catching outta the backfield ,faster, more elusive , still has power , and is younger why would it be impossible for him to beat out a career backup?

Ah, here it is. The annual thread of "Can [6th round rookie or later] beat out [starter, usually above average]?"

Quote:Ah, here it is. The annual thread of "Can [6th round rookie or later] beat out [starter, usually above average]?"

 

If our starters were "usually above average," don't you think we'd have an above average team?

Quote:If our starters were "usually above average," don't you think we'd have an above average team?

 

I didn't say our starters were usually above average, I said the starters who are brought up in these threads every year are. 

Gerhart is unproven he shouldnt be listed as above average. Maybe above average for a backup running back but we saw how that has worked out for Rashad Jennings and his amazing 5+ YPC when he was backing up MJD in limited time.

Quote:Gerhart is unproven he shouldnt be listed as above average. Maybe above average for a backup running back but we saw how that has worked out for Rashad Jennings and his amazing 5+ YPC when he was backing up MJD in limited time.

Jennings averaged 4.5 YPC last season in Oakland.  (163 carries) That didn't really work out so bad. 

 

Most will agree Gerhart is likely better than Jennings. But - you're right - he's technically unproven. A question mark in my mind.