05-16-2014, 09:44 AM
Without question, Jaguars fans are currently experiencing a level of excitement over our future prospects we haven't legitimately seen in years due to what appears to be a fantastic draft class brought in by Dave Caldwell and the FO. Even the national media took notice, with most national media observers giving the Jaguars very high marks for this draft class.
With visions of long TDs from Bortles to Lee and Robinson dancing through our heads, hopes are high that the dark days of the Jaguars losing are soon to be behind us, and a new golden age of the Jaguars lay just over the horizon. Dare we dream about a worst to first finish?
But how do we know we're on the right track?
How long will it take for the team to become perennial contenders?
After some research, I offer a couple of rules that will attempt to shed some light on some of these questions, based upon historical precedent.
1. The rule of the dominant draft class. It seems nearly every team that has become perennial playoff contenders over the last 40 years or so has had at least one draft class that brought in a major infusion of talent that helped propel the team from the dregs into longer term winners. This holds true of contenders pre free agency to the current era. Even before the great 1974 Steelers draft which is widely considered the best ever draft class with 4 Hall of famers, the Steelers, the Steelers had in classes that brought in a lot of talent. Noll's first year-1969-saw the Steelers add two Hall of Famers-Joe Greene and L.C. Greenwood, and OL John Kolb, another starter on their Super Bowl teams. The next class saw the Steelers add two more Hall of Famers-Bradshaw and Mel Blount. The third class saw the Steelers add yet another Hall of Famer-LB Jack Ham-and two other starters/major contributors-DL Dwight White and Ernie Holmes. The 1980s 49ers dynasty arrived in 1981. While they added guys like Montana and Clark in 1979, the 1981 draft arguably put them over the top, because they added three new starters to their secondary that year, including HOF Ronnie Lott, and Pro Bowlers Carlton Williamson and Eric Wright. Other 1980s powers included the Skins, whose 1981 draft class added five starters, including Mark May, Russ Grimm, DE Dexter Manley, WR Charlie Brown and DT Darryl Grant. This holds true for modern day champions, too. The current Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks were bolstered by their 2010 draft class. The first six (6) players from that class were starters on last year's Super Bowl team. If this Jaguars draft class is as strong as it appears, it may one day fall into one of these discussions in the future.
2. The rule of 3-4. Still unanswered is the question of when we can expect the team to start winning. In the immediate aftermath of this draft class, many posters have pointed to 2015 as the year our Jaguars make the ascent to our rightful place at the top of the NFL. Based upon the slow development plan of Bortles and Colvin's return to 100% from the torn ACL, in addition to historical precedent, this seems to be accurate. Starting in 1969, it took the Steelers four drafts to go from bottom of the NFL to the playoffs. It took Walsh and the 49ers three drafts (1979-1981) to turn the team into champions. Similarly, it took the Gibbs era skins the same amount of time/drafts (1980-1982) to become perennial contenders. The 1985 Bears matured into one of the all time dominant teams starting with the 1982 draft and reaching the NFC championship by 1984. Jimmy Johnson took over Dallas in 1989 and had them in the playoffs by 1991. The Coughlin era Giants went from taking Phillip Rivers and trading for Eli Manning in 2004 to winning their first Super Bowl in 2007-4 drafts. It took Sean Payton 4 drafts from his arrival to win the Super Bowl in New Orleans. Likewise, Seattle's ascent took 3 drafts to become a solid playoff contender, and another to win the Super Bowl. Counting from last year, if the draft this year is as good as advertised, and last year's guys like Joeckel, Cyprien, Gratz and Sanders continue to develop as we think, our development should be on this schedule where we reach the playoffs in 2015.
To be honest, it's great to be able to think along this trajectory for once.
With visions of long TDs from Bortles to Lee and Robinson dancing through our heads, hopes are high that the dark days of the Jaguars losing are soon to be behind us, and a new golden age of the Jaguars lay just over the horizon. Dare we dream about a worst to first finish?
But how do we know we're on the right track?
How long will it take for the team to become perennial contenders?
After some research, I offer a couple of rules that will attempt to shed some light on some of these questions, based upon historical precedent.
1. The rule of the dominant draft class. It seems nearly every team that has become perennial playoff contenders over the last 40 years or so has had at least one draft class that brought in a major infusion of talent that helped propel the team from the dregs into longer term winners. This holds true of contenders pre free agency to the current era. Even before the great 1974 Steelers draft which is widely considered the best ever draft class with 4 Hall of famers, the Steelers, the Steelers had in classes that brought in a lot of talent. Noll's first year-1969-saw the Steelers add two Hall of Famers-Joe Greene and L.C. Greenwood, and OL John Kolb, another starter on their Super Bowl teams. The next class saw the Steelers add two more Hall of Famers-Bradshaw and Mel Blount. The third class saw the Steelers add yet another Hall of Famer-LB Jack Ham-and two other starters/major contributors-DL Dwight White and Ernie Holmes. The 1980s 49ers dynasty arrived in 1981. While they added guys like Montana and Clark in 1979, the 1981 draft arguably put them over the top, because they added three new starters to their secondary that year, including HOF Ronnie Lott, and Pro Bowlers Carlton Williamson and Eric Wright. Other 1980s powers included the Skins, whose 1981 draft class added five starters, including Mark May, Russ Grimm, DE Dexter Manley, WR Charlie Brown and DT Darryl Grant. This holds true for modern day champions, too. The current Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks were bolstered by their 2010 draft class. The first six (6) players from that class were starters on last year's Super Bowl team. If this Jaguars draft class is as strong as it appears, it may one day fall into one of these discussions in the future.
2. The rule of 3-4. Still unanswered is the question of when we can expect the team to start winning. In the immediate aftermath of this draft class, many posters have pointed to 2015 as the year our Jaguars make the ascent to our rightful place at the top of the NFL. Based upon the slow development plan of Bortles and Colvin's return to 100% from the torn ACL, in addition to historical precedent, this seems to be accurate. Starting in 1969, it took the Steelers four drafts to go from bottom of the NFL to the playoffs. It took Walsh and the 49ers three drafts (1979-1981) to turn the team into champions. Similarly, it took the Gibbs era skins the same amount of time/drafts (1980-1982) to become perennial contenders. The 1985 Bears matured into one of the all time dominant teams starting with the 1982 draft and reaching the NFC championship by 1984. Jimmy Johnson took over Dallas in 1989 and had them in the playoffs by 1991. The Coughlin era Giants went from taking Phillip Rivers and trading for Eli Manning in 2004 to winning their first Super Bowl in 2007-4 drafts. It took Sean Payton 4 drafts from his arrival to win the Super Bowl in New Orleans. Likewise, Seattle's ascent took 3 drafts to become a solid playoff contender, and another to win the Super Bowl. Counting from last year, if the draft this year is as good as advertised, and last year's guys like Joeckel, Cyprien, Gratz and Sanders continue to develop as we think, our development should be on this schedule where we reach the playoffs in 2015.
To be honest, it's great to be able to think along this trajectory for once.
