Seven football experts - mostly guys with familiar names - were asked that question. Here are their answers:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000...f-14-class
Charles Davis:
Quote: Bortles will be No. 1 The answer here is Blake Bortles. The Jaguars might have surprised us with the selection of the UCF QB (the widespread belief was that they would take LB Khalil Mack or WR Sammy Watkins) at No. 3. However, put his potential with Jags GM Dave Caldwell (who added nice supporting pieces for Bortles in the draft in WRs Marqise Leeand Allen Robinson, G Brandon Linder and RB Storm Johnson), head coach Gus Bradley and offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, and Bortles could be special.
Chase Goodbread:
Quote: Jags have right plan for Bortles Jacksonville's Blake Bortles, given three years, will be at the head of the draft class at his position. The fact that he'll get the chance to learn and develop as a rookie this year will be a luxury for both he and the club (GM David Caldwellhas indicated that's the plan). Presumably, he'll take his lumps in Year 2, but by Year 3, he'll be able to match quality experience with what should be a better cast of offensive weapons in Jacksonville. If Luke Joeckel and Marqise Leeare playing to their potential at that time, Bortles will be a force.
Only one guy voted for Johnny Manziel. The majority prefer Teddy Bridgewater. It was nice to see two votes for Bortles.
I would vote Bortles or Bridgewater, with the note that the whole exercise of grading draft classes or predicting their future performance is a rather silly endeavor at this juncture.
Johnny Manziel. He should have a few rings by then
Maybe we'll know in.....3 years?
Blake Or Teddy most likely.
Quote:Only one guy voted for Johnny Manziel. The majority prefer Teddy Bridgewater. It was nice to see two votes for Bortles.
Financially, TB should be pretty upset he didn't wear his gloves, but for future investment, he couldn't have asked to be with a better team. Norv knows offense and QB.
Garoppolo is still my fav QB.
Quote:Garoppolo is still my fav QB.
Why?
He doesn't react well to pressure at all. I don't think that's something that can be fixed.
Quote:Why?
He doesn't react well to pressure at all. I don't think that's something that can be fixed.
you're right ask blaine gabbert
Quote:Mettenberger, sadly.
Oh my???
Quote:Blake Or Teddy most likely.
Agreed. Blake has more upside. Teddy is probably the safer choice.
Tom Savage could also enter the conversation 3 years from now.
Quote:Tom Savage could also enter the conversation 3 years from now.
I'd bet against him. If the guy had such a bright future, he'd have been a potential first-round pick more than two weeks before the draft, and he wouldn't have tanked to the fourth round when it counted. You can't teach physical attributes, I know, but plenty of mid-round QBs with great physical attributes have been career backups.
Savage was, imo, the first product of "we have two extra weeks" syndrome. Everyone know who the best prospects were, so it was time to dig into the bag of tricks and pull out a guy with a cannon arm. Never mind that he changed colleges roughly as often as most people change their sheets, or that he's two years older than the average rookie and coming from middling competition. I'd compare his draft profile to that of Ryan Nassib, who went from a mid-round pick to a top-ten candidate for some reason or another, then tanked back down to the fourth round on draft day, reminding everyone that GMs get paid a lot to be right, and Kiper gets paid a lot more to be wrong.
Quote:I'd bet against him. If the guy had such a bright future, he'd have been a potential first-round pick more than two weeks before the draft, and he wouldn't have tanked to the fourth round when it counted. You can't teach physical attributes, I know, but plenty of mid-round QBs with great physical attributes have been career backups.
Savage was, imo, the first product of "we have two extra weeks" syndrome. Everyone know who the best prospects were, so it was time to dig into the bag of tricks and pull out a guy with a cannon arm. Never mind that he changed colleges roughly as often as most people change their sheets, or that he's two years older than the average rookie and coming from middling competition. I'd compare his draft profile to that of Ryan Nassib, who went from a mid-round pick to a top-ten candidate for some reason or another, then tanked back down to the fourth round on draft day, reminding everyone that GMs get paid a lot to be right, and Kiper gets paid a lot more to be wrong.
Like I expressed in another thread, I like the risk/ reward of the Tom Savage pick. Even if you are proven correct, which is certainly a realistic possibility, the Texans made a good decision in taking Savage at that point of the draft.
The last two drafts, QB's for the most part have lasted longer than in the drafts prior to that. Because of the high bust rate of QB's, many NFL organizations seem to be becoming more cautious in taking a QB in the first couple of days of the draft. If a number of QB's from the last couple of drafts taken in Rounds 4 and 5 go on to perform at a level noticeably higher than when they were taken, there's a good chance that more QB's will be taken in the first 3 Rounds in the latter half of this decade.
Oh yeah, it's hard to call a fourth-round pick a bust given how unlikely those players are to become more than career backups if they even stick in the first place, but the Savage love from the media just seemed ridiculous. None of it ever added up. They latched onto a guy who played three years of college football (one of which saw him benched), completed 56% of his passes, kept transferring because he couldn't lock on to a starting job and wound up looking just ok as a 23-year-old senior on an ACC team. Who in their right mind would see that type of player as a first-round candidate, which is what the Mel Kipers of the world wanted to peg him as?
Savage in four, cool. If there's a QB on the board in the fourth round that you reasonably believe can be a decent NFL starter, he should be getting strong consideration for your next pick. But Savage as the best QB from this year's draft? I strongly doubt it. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Houston goes QB early in next year's draft to find their starter, and sets Savage up as the Kirk Cousins of that organization.
Quote:Oh yeah, it's hard to call a fourth-round pick a bust given how unlikely those players are to become more than career backups if they even stick in the first place, but the Savage love from the media just seemed ridiculous. None of it ever added up. They latched onto a guy who played three years of college football (one of which saw him benched), completed 56% of his passes, kept transferring because he couldn't lock on to a starting job and wound up looking just ok as a 23-year-old senior on an ACC team. Who in their right mind would see that type of player as a first-round candidate, which is what the Mel Kipers of the world wanted to peg him as?
Savage in four, cool. If there's a QB on the board in the fourth round that you reasonably believe can be a decent NFL starter, he should be getting strong consideration for your next pick. But Savage as the best QB from this year's draft? I strongly doubt it. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Houston goes QB early in next year's draft to find their starter, and sets Savage up as the Kirk Cousins of that organization.
How much progress Tom Savage makes this season will very likely go along way in the Texans 2015 draft strategy. If Savage doesn't show enough signs that he can turn potential into production, QB will almost certainly be the Texans greatest draft priority in 2015.
The aspect that intrigues me about Tom Savage potentially noticeably exceeding his draft landing spot is Bill O' Brien having a successful background with QB's.
Even if Savage becomes a Kirk Cousins level QB, he would have exceeded his draft landing spot. Realistically though, it probably will be at least until 2015 that Savage can even be counted on as a # 2 QB. At the very least, in 2014 he needs to display significant progress on the practice field and class room.
I say either Bridgewater or Bortles. Teddy for his consistency and Bortles for what he can become. All the other ones look like they'll have solid years her or there at best. Savage and mettenberger are just big guys. I liked murray too and think he can be a solid consistent guy as well.
Manziel, Bortles, or Murray
Murray will walk the Landy Jones, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Greg McElroy, and Ryan Nassib road. Not all short QBs who aren't mobile or physically gifted will be the next Drew Brees. Three years from now, no one would even notice who they are.