So some of you might recall around a year ago I started a thread noting that the espn NFL team writers had each predicted out their own team's record game by game for that season, and using those predictions I came up with them deciding (indirectly) that the Jaguars would be a 3-13 team. See the thread here:
https://jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/to...m-in-2016/
Many of us scoffed at the idea, though we noted that Gus was at the rudder and with him leading the team expectations shouldn't be high, but for any team with talent 3 wins is an exceptionally low win prediction.
Well we quickly found out that even though none of us saw it coming, apparently the outside perception was dead on, as the Jaguars went 3-13 and looked every bit the complete losers a 3-13 team is, continually killing themselves with huge mental mistakes and bad decisions. Personal fouls kept opponents drives alive, offensive and special teams turnovers killed drives before they even started, and the running game was once again so bad and so unaccountable that Bortles was made to once again try to carry the offense on his shoulders.
This season the espn NFL team writers have once again selected the Jaguars for three wins on the season.
http://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-ja...he-jaguars
Last year I thought it was a bad number to pick just because I thought the team is too talented for coaching to hold them that far down, this season I think 3 is way too low. Even very poorly coached teams usually win more than 3 games, and I don't think the coaching will be nearly as bad this season.
I see the changes being made and the progress with Blakes arm, and want to think we're winning 10 games this year. However, I've taken a close look at the league after the draft to come up with my power ranking currently posted in the NFL at Large forum. The general opinion of my ranking is that at #22 I have the Jaguars too high. There's one poster in that thread insisting we should be no higher than #25.
I like #22 because as long as I can justify it to myself, I'm good with it, but I can't rightly justify a higher ranking even to myself, and it took the likes of Fournette and Westbrook to get me that high up. Well, #22 is the ranking of maybe a 6-10 team, and I can certainly see this being the outcome. My prediction for the Jaguars all along this offseason has been 8-8 plus or minus two games, so whether they finish 6-10 or 10-6, I'm good there.
Quote:I see the changes being made and the progress with Blakes arm, and want to think we're winning 10 games this year. However, I've taken a close look at the league after the draft to come up with my power ranking currently posted in the NFL at Large forum. The general opinion of my ranking is that at #22 I have the Jaguars too high. There's one poster in that thread insisting we should be no higher than #25.
I like #22 because as long as I can justify it to myself, I'm good with it, but I can't rightly justify a higher ranking even to myself, and it took the likes of Fournette and Westbrook to get me that high up. Well, #22 is the ranking of maybe a 6-10 team, and I can certainly see this being the outcome. My prediction for the Jaguars all along this offseason has been 8-8 plus or minus two games, so whether they finish 6-10 or 10-6, I'm good there.
I think 10 games is within reach if Marrone can solve some problems, namely getting Bortles to be at least at competent game manager level, or not killing the team with turnovers on bad decisions, but I think Bortles decision making wasn't as bad as the numbers last year might look, so I think that part is easily achievable.
I think the harder part will be the defense actually being good, and I don't mean have good yardage allowed totals at the end of the season, but fold in every critical situation they face. If they can actually stop a few teams late in the fourth quarter of a game that will be a big improvement over last year, where the Bears were the only team they managed to close out on defense. The other two wins came because the offense got out ahead and didn't let up.
Six wins should be seen as a floor if a lot of things outside of the team's control go wrong, like critical injuries to Fournette or Bortles. If Fournette and Bortles play the whole season and perform like we think they're capable of then a .500 season should be easy, and while ESPN wouldn't have seen it coming much like they didn't see the titans 9-7 season coming last year, it's nothing that should be unexpected by fans.
It's really tough to predict our division.
I look at the TItans and I admit to being a little scared. I actually think they take the division rather easily because their offense looks so tight all the way around. Just before he was injured, Mariota was playing better than Luck, and the Titans were already boasting perhaps the best OL and of the best TEs in the game. This year they add Corey Davis in the draft, and with their OL it doesn't really matter who is running the ball for them. I see them fielding a power offense but wonder if they might have some vulnerabilities on defense. Back in '99, it was the Jaguars who had the power offense, but the Titans had our number with their ability to control the clock and with their stout defense. Is Karma reeling her head around?
The Colts have Andrew Luck, and that's really all you need to know about their offense. As long as Luck is there, you know they'll be pretty good. Overall this is a team that at least fringes on the playoffs every season, and they appear to have significantly improved their secondary with their first two picks in the draft. Their roster is in transition and overall appears lacking in talent, but they still have the key players to get the job done, and I can easily see them going say 9-7. The Jaguars, however, have had their number the past couple years, and I can see that continuing. Here's hoping we sweep the Colts this year.
The Texans I predict are in for a long season trying to maintain DeShaun Watson as their QB. I know the crowds still see them as a Playoff contender, but I won't be shocked in the least if they go 5-11. Still, it's tough to predict a sweep over them because those Texans always play us hard even when they do stink.
Getting rid of Gus should add 2 or 3 wins. But we won't win more than 6 games with Biff Bortles at QB.
The best way to turn a losing team into a winning team quickly in the NFL is to be a trend setter instead of a trend follower. I remember when the Vikings fielded Nate Burleson, Cris Carter and Randy Moss at wide receiver and nobody could cover them. I remember the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk. And we all know about the Legion of Boom.
The lesson is this: The NFL is a league that is predicated on innovation.
What Gus Bradley was trying to do was copy what Pete Carroll did. He failed for the same reason Pete did in New York and Boston. Pete was trying to be Bill Walsh back then. Bill Belichick was trying to be Bill Parcells in Cleveland, (although he did come up with the UFO defense.) That didn't work out either.
Being a trend follower instead of a trend setter is one reason that teams fail in the draft. It has to be done with a five year plan and you have to do it with next years draft in mind. If you don't have a tenured scouting department, this is a liability.
What I think is interesting from the Jaguars point of view is that this was the deepest draft for defensive backs in the last ten years and they only took one very late. Last year was the year to go get offensive and defensive lineman in the draft. Jags drafted four defensive linemen, a shutdown corner and a swiss army knife linebacker with injury concerns. Clearly, they expect to have a big year defensively.
What may be their Achilles heel again this year, is the offensive line. I'm not sure how much could have been done about that. Contrast this to what Seattle did in 2016 taking a tackle in Germain Ifedi, a guard in Rees Odhiambo, and a center in Joey Hunt and feeding Russel Wilson to the wolves behind the worst offensive line in football according to Pro Football Focus. They played a rookie undrafted free agent, George Fant, at LEFT TACKLE for most of the year who had never played the position before at any level. Will the big jump be from year one to year two? I dunno.
If it is, I expect the Jags defense to be stellar, finally, this year.
Quote:It's really tough to predict our division.
I look at the TItans and I admit to being a little scared. I actually think they take the division rather easily because their offense looks so tight all the way around. Just before he was injured, Mariota was playing better than Luck, and the Titans were already boasting perhaps the best OL and of the best TEs in the game. This year they add Corey Davis in the draft, and with their OL it doesn't really matter who is running the ball for them. I see them fielding a power offense but wonder if they might have some vulnerabilities on defense. Back in '99, it was the Jaguars who had the power offense, but the Titans had our number with their ability to control the clock and with their stout defense. Is Karma reeling her head around?
The Colts have Andrew Luck, and that's really all you need to know about their offense. As long as Luck is there, you know they'll be pretty good. Overall this is a team that at least fringes on the playoffs every season, and they appear to have significantly improved their secondary with their first two picks in the draft. Their roster is in transition and overall appears lacking in talent, but they still have the key players to get the job done, and I can easily see them going say 9-7. The Jaguars, however, have had their number the past couple years, and I can see that continuing. Here's hoping we sweep the Colts this year.
The Texans I predict are in for a long season trying to maintain DeShaun Watson as their QB. I know the crowds still see them as a Playoff contender, but I won't be shocked in the least if they go 5-11. Still, it's tough to predict a sweep over them because those Texans always play us hard even when they do stink.
I am not picking on you. But the reality is you nothing about qbs. Luck is coming off real serious shoulder injuries. So the clots being in contention shouldnt even be a concern. plus we was over rated to begin with. The real competition providing marriotta is healhy is the two T in our division. The tacks have just as good if not better running game and just added some playmakers in receiving game. The tinhorns were a good qb away from being a real threat in nfl. And adding watson who is in fact clutch in big time games (ala brady) and a winner (ala dalton) on a much better team than the bengals. Says the road to the title is through the two T teams.
The Tennessee Titans have lost to the Indianapolis Colts 10 straight times and 15 out of their last 16 games.
The problem with Mariota is that he's fragile. He has yet to finish an NFL season.
Quote:The problem with Mariota is that he's fragile. He has yet to finish an NFL season.
He has played in 27 games in two seasons in the NFL. Seems like a pretty small sample size.
Quote:The Texans I predict are in for a long season trying to maintain DeShaun Watson as their QB. I know the crowds still see them as a Playoff contender, but I won't be shocked in the least if they go 5-11. Still, it's tough to predict a sweep over them because those Texans always play us hard even when they do stink.
Hmm don't know where you're getting here. The Texans have gone to the playoffs in past 4 of 5 years, they have 2 AFC championships in the last three, and I hope we can both agree that there QB situation has always been trash. I'm not sure that adding in a rookie (if he eventually beats out Tom Savage in the first year) can downgrade the offense. On the defensive side the #1 defense from last year, is adding the DPOY when JJ Watt comes back. Short of massive injuries 5-11 seems pretty crazy.
Quote:I am not picking on you. But the reality is you nothing about qbs. Luck is coming off real serious shoulder injuries. So the clots being in contention shouldnt even be a concern. plus we was over rated to begin with. The real competition providing marriotta is healhy is the two T in our division. The tacks have just as good if not better running game and just added some playmakers in receiving game. The tinhorns were a good qb away from being a real threat in nfl. And adding watson who is in fact clutch in big time games (ala brady) and a winner (ala dalton) on a much better team than the bengals. Says the road to the title is through the two T teams.
Luck's shoulder injury is the same one he had in 2015. He just finally had it worked on and will need this offseason to heal up. The scary thing is, once healed he's expected to be better than he was at pretty much any point the past two seasons. That said, I can see the Colts maybe slacking off just enough for the Jaguars to surpass them in the standings.
As for the Texans, I just see them throwing in all their chips on Watson, and I just don't see that working out to well. We'll see if their defense can continue carrying them to wins, but I just see the rookie holding them back this year. Maybe I'm way wrong and everyone else is right. It's May.
Quote:Luck's shoulder injury is the same one he had in 2015. He just finally had it worked on and will need this offseason to heal up. The scary thing is, once healed he's expected to be better than he was at pretty much any point the past two seasons. That said, I can see the Colts maybe slacking off just enough for the Jaguars to surpass them in the standings.
As for the Texans, I just see them throwing in all their chips on Watson, and I just don't see that working out to well. We'll see if their defense can continue carrying them to wins, but I just see the rookie holding them back this year. Maybe I'm way wrong and everyone else is right. It's May.
I am not saying Watson will be the savior this year. However he has a great coach and will end up a great qb down the line.
Quote:I am not saying Watson will be the savior this year. However he has a great coach and will end up a great qb down the line.
Sure they might figure some things out by year two, but I just really think he's going to struggle as a rookie.
Quote:Sure they might figure some things out by year two, but I just really think he's going to struggle as a rookie.
He could. But with the tinhorns d line. He may not have to be much more then a game manager year one. He has a number 1 and two receiver and a really good running back to help him.
Quote:The best way to turn a losing team into a winning team quickly in the NFL is to be a trend setter instead of a trend follower. I remember when the Vikings fielded Nate Burleson, Cris Carter and Randy Moss at wide receiver and nobody could cover them. I remember the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk. And we all know about the Legion of Boom.
The lesson is this: The NFL is a league that is predicated on innovation.
What Gus Bradley was trying to do was copy what Pete Carroll did. He failed for the same reason Pete did in New York and Boston. Pete was trying to be Bill Walsh back then. Bill Belichick was trying to be Bill Parcells in Cleveland, (although he did come up with the UFO defense.) That didn't work out either.
Being a trend follower instead of a trend setter is one reason that teams fail in the draft. It has to be done with a five year plan and you have to do it with next years draft in mind. If you don't have a tenured scouting department, this is a liability.
What I think is interesting from the Jaguars point of view is that this was the deepest draft for defensive backs in the last ten years and they only took one very late. Last year was the year to go get offensive and defensive lineman in the draft. Jags drafted four defensive linemen, a shutdown corner and a swiss army knife linebacker with injury concerns. Clearly, they expect to have a big year defensively.
What may be their Achilles heel again this year, is the offensive line. I'm not sure how much could have been done about that. Contrast this to what Seattle did in 2016 taking a tackle in Germain Ifedi, a guard in Rees Odhiambo, and a center in Joey Hunt and feeding Russel Wilson to the wolves behind the worst offensive line in football according to Pro Football Focus. They played a rookie undrafted free agent, George Fant, at LEFT TACKLE for most of the year who had never played the position before at any level. Will the big jump be from year one to year two? I dunno.
If it is, I expect the Jags defense to be stellar, finally, this year.
This is a very intelligent post even if I don't agree with every particular point. Well done sir.
Quote:Sure they might figure some things out by year two, but I just really think he's going to struggle as a rookie.
I agree. I have little confidence in Watson. With the Jags' recent additions in the secondary and D-Line, I like how we match up with Watson. I think we'll force him to make mistakes. I'm glad they took him instead of Mahomes.
Quote:I agree. I have little confidence in Watson. With the Jags' recent additions in the secondary and D-Line, I like how we match up with Watson. I think we'll force him to make mistakes. I'm glad they took him instead of Mahomes.
Agreed. I like Watson's character and would've rooted for him if he landed outside of our division, but I think he's highly flawed and was never impressed by him. I'm sure Bill OB knows more about football than I do, but the kid doesn't scare me at all, particularly with our CBs. And I also think Mahomes has a MUCH higher ceiling. But hey, what do I know, just speculation. I'm actually a bigger fan of Foreman than Watson, thought that was a great pick for them. But our front 7 should be stellar so that doesn't worry me too much either. Excited about our (potential) defense.
Quote:Agreed. I like Watson's character and would've rooted for him if he landed outside of our division, but I think he's highly flawed and was never impressed by him. I'm sure Bill OB knows more about football than I do, but the kid doesn't scare me at all, particularly with our CBs. And I also think Mahomes has a MUCH higher ceiling. But hey, what do I know, just speculation. I'm actually a bigger fan of Foreman than Watson, thought that was a great pick for them. But our front 7 should be stellar so that doesn't worry me too much either. Excited about our (potential) defense.
Agreed on all points.
Common theme all off season. Everyone knows this year is on Blake's progression and the offensive line to create some push up front to open up the run game. If both come together this team can win a lot of games. That is a big IF for Bortles, and also a questionable IF for an O line that will likely see Albert gone(retired/cut/etc) and Cam stepping in at LT as a rookie. I don't think we did enough this off season up front, just my .02.