Quote:900 yards, 9 tds and maybe another 150 receiveing. But had bad hands at college level. If you dont believe me. Go on youtube and watch the actual games. The announcers say. Well good thing Fournette is not known for his hands. The reason LSU did not use him that much in receiving game. Is during games would drop catches.
But that is still great for a rookie with a average to below average line. Fournette will not be the savior. I'd love to be wrong. But right now I don't see it.
Honest question. Do not think about the things you post on here before laying it out? Would save you some grief from being wrong a lot of the time.
272 attempts 1200 yards 4.41 ypc 10 touchdowns
30 receptions 230 yards 2 touchdowns
0 yards
.... I'm convinced we're jinxed.
Quote:270 att, 1323 yards, 4.9 avg, 14 td
25 rec, 265 rec yards, 1 td
255 att, 1230 yards, 4.8 avg, 15 TDs
47 rec, 440 yards, 11 TDs
He is still running behind this offensive line and has Blake as QB right? He will avg under 4.0 yards per. Probably like 950 yds and 5 TD's. Gurley went from 4.8 to 3.2 all because of line. I still don't get why people think he will run well behind this line and with telegraphic Blake.
My stat line above was actually projecting what would just set all the yardage and TD rookie records for Jaguars RBs. I know the receiving part looks a bit high, but that's what it takes to beat out MJD's receiving numbers. The rushing part looks more doable.
Also for the record I think he eclipses 300 carries.
Interesting comments on here and after reading some I will have to follow suit on some.
1. Start all 16 games and be healthy.
2. If he is higher than 4 yards a carry I think we will have more success.
3. Do really well against pass protection and not cause holding penalties.
I think if all of those are accomplished then we can win ball games. I still see Blake throwing 30 or more times a game. I think having fournette in the backfield will keep other defenses honest and not expecting a pass on majority of the plays.
1,125 yards rushing with 8 tds
Hmmm...
I think 1500 yards from scrimmage is asking a lot from a rookie. That said, Ezekiel Elliot had 1964 and 15 touchdowns last year, behind the best offensive line in football. Looking at some of the best rookie performances in NFL History I noticed that Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew are on many lists. Let's use those as a baseline.
Fred Taylor 15 games, 264 rushing attempts (4.6 average), 1223 rushing yards (81.5 average), 14 touchdowns, 44 receptions, 421 yards (9.6 average), 3 touchdowns.
Maurice Jones Drew 16 games, 166 rushing attempts (5.7 average), 941 yards (58.8 average), 13 touchdowns, 46 receptions, 436 yards (9.5 average), 2 touchdowns.
They want to feed him 20-30 times a game. If you hit the median that's 25 times a game. Say he hits that number that puts him at 400 carries this season. Say he averages 4ypc that would put him at 1600 yards. Now I'm not saying this is realistic but I see him getting about 300-320 carries and about 1200-1400 yards depending on his ypc.
Quote:He is still running behind this offensive line and has Blake as QB right? He will avg under 4.0 yards per. Probably like 950 yds and 5 TD's. Gurley went from 4.8 to 3.2 all because of line. I still don't get why people think he will run well behind this line and with telegraphic Blake.
Well, two-fifths of the line are likely upgraded players with Albert and Robinson. A healthy Parnell with a new staff breathing down his neck should be better than his 2016 performance also. The rook will also have a FB lead-blocking for him much of the time. It's not crazy to think Fournette could average over 4 yards per carry.
18 carries per game at 4.2 YPC would end up at 1209 yards. I could see him coming close to that.
Quote:They want to feed him 20-30 times a game. If you hit the median that's 25 times a game. Say he hits that number that puts him at 400 carries this season. Say he averages 4ypc that would put him at 1600 yards. Now I'm not saying this is realistic but I see him getting about 300-320 carries and about 1200-1400 yards depending on his ypc.
Ezekiel Elliot lead the league in carries last year with 322. Next highest was LeGarrette Blount with 299. The all time record is 416 by Larry Johnson in 2006. In 2014 Demarco Murray had 392 and was useless the next year. He went from 1845 yards and a 4.7 average to 702 yards and a 3.6 average. He went from 13 touchdowns to 6. Of course, some of this had to do with going from the Cowboys to the Eagles.
Still, if you run Fournette 320 times as a rookie, he might have a very short career. 250 is a nice number and he could still hit your target.
Quote:Well, two-fifths of the line are likely upgraded players with Albert and Robinson. A healthy Parnell with a new staff breathing down his neck should be better than his 2016 performance also. The rook will also have a FB lead-blocking for him much of the time. It's not crazy to think Fournette could average over 4 yards per carry.
18 carries per game at 4.2 YPC would end up at 1209 yards. I could see him coming close to that.
I literally just did the math for the exact same numbers before seeing you already posted. I also think 1209ish yards at 4.2 avg. with say 6 tds. 15rec for 100yards 1 td.
Quote:Interesting comments on here and after reading some I will have to follow suit on some.
1. Start all 16 games and be healthy.
2. If he is higher than 4 yards a carry I think we will have more success.
3. Do really well against pass protection and not cause holding penalties.
I think if all of those are accomplished then we can win ball games. I still see Blake throwing 30 or more times a game. I think having fournette in the backfield will keep other defenses honest and not expecting a pass on majority of the plays.
I'm perfectly fine with Bortles throwing 30 times a game or just over... it's when he's throwing over 40 times a game that I'll get a little nervous.
25000 yarrrrrrrds
and 25 touchdowns
280 attempts, 960 yards, 15 TDs, a couple dozen receptions. NFL defenses are harder to run over than their college equivalents. Not a bad debut season for a rook.
Quote:25000 yarrrrrrrds
and 25 touchdowns
A touchdown for every thousand yards?
He'd be the opposite of Leroy Hoard who once had one yard rushing and three touchdowns in a game.
Quote:Well, two-fifths of the line are likely upgraded players with Albert and Robinson. A healthy Parnell with a new staff breathing down his neck should be better than his 2016 performance also. The rook will also have a FB lead-blocking for him much of the time. It's not crazy to think Fournette could average over 4 yards per carry.
18 carries per game at 4.2 YPC would end up at 1209 yards. I could see him coming close to that.
I just don't see it yet. Albert even if he does show up, has only played 16 games once in his career. Though, if he is out there and healthy I will definitely not deny that he is an upgrade. Cam hasn't played a down in the NFL yet, so how can we be for certain he is an upgrade? The only for sure thing I see on the line is Linder, and I will give you Albert as well if he is healthy and motivated. Other than that, I see questions. Like many on here, I am on the side of "When I see it, I'll believe it". Fournette is a monster, but he is going to need a lane to get going. Hopefully it works out.