Per Rotoroworld:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45...-conundrum
The statistics breakdown of their throw attempts on the top four QB prospects -- Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles and Carr.
I thought this article is somewhat interesting. If you look at their numbers and statistics, the scouts and "experts" got their QB ranking right -- Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortle and Carr, in that order.
Though, I have to admit that Manziel actually performed better as a passer than I thought he would be. He's closer to Teddy than the other two.
Even though he ran a spread college offense and despite how much HeeRo tried to talk him up, Carr was the least impressive of the bunch.
Also, this data is taken from their passing attempts. This doesn't include making the right/wrong reads and going through progression, etc...
I've been trying to tell people that Manziel is a far better passer than they give him credit for. People in the media are starting to realize this too. I think with another year of development he will be right there with Bridgewater in terms of arm talent. They're about equal as far as raw arm talent goes.
He can definitely pass the ball. All the Tebow comparisons should be out the window. But running a pro-style offense is something I'm not sure he can handle yet, at least not in his rookie year. Whichever team draft him will have to adjust their offense to a spread, pistol formation.
I don't think so. Give him some time to learn. Whatever team drafts him is going to have to bring in a vet....which we already have (even if he does suck).
What Would Tony Khan Say?
You look at arm strength and durability first. Stats are PR.
ARM STRENGTH - When I see a quarterback, I look for the elite arm strength traits first. The easiest way to put it is the prospective quarterback must throw with the authority of a major league third baseman. Third basemen possess quick release, have velocity on their throw, and excellent touch on their throw so that its easy to catch. It takes time to turn the ball around and send it on it's way with mustard on it. Superior arm strength is a must.
Naturally strong arms don't have a lot of hang-time on deep throws. The elite throw has arc, but doesn't hang in the air the way it does with passers that must heave-ho to cover greater distances.
DURABILITY - After arm strength, the most important elite trait to look for is durability. Height, weight and physical fitness combined are essential to play quarterback, but durability can be more of personal challenge than the result of poor measurements. Durability isn't determined by mobility, elusiveness, or running ability. The stronger the body the more durability it has. The propensity for injury to a quarterback is always an issue. The more durable the quarterback is, the less frequent quarterback injury interrupts the team. The quarterback must be able to function despite injury.
If these two things aren't clear up front, the likelihood the prospect will reach elite status isn't so good.
I think this stats proves why a lot of people like Bridgewater, and why some don't like him as much. The article points out that 50% of his throws are in the 1-10 yard range. However, as the article itself states, it does not take into account progression and reads. Those who watch Teddy often enough will know that a lot of these throws are indeed, check downs. They are not your typical Garrard/Gabbert checkdowns however, where its "Welp, first option covered, time to dump it off" kind of passes. Teddy typically goes through his entire progression first, leaving the checkdown as the last option...as it should be. However, what I really want to point out is this...
According to the stats, Bridgewater attempts 50% of his passes in the 1-10 yard zone. But the thing is, he completes 88% of his 1-5 yard passes, and 81% of his 6-10 yard passes.I don't know about you, but if my QB can complete 88% and 81% of his passes of the needed 10 yards to move the chains...I take it...especially since he also completes a good enough percentage on passes 11-20 yards zone. That his percentage remains high regardless on if he's blitzed, pressured, or has a clean pocket adds to the value of these stats.
It also validates what I've seen of Manziel. I think he throws a reallly nice deep sideline throw. They are often not thrown with great velocity, but have great touch. If you have the WR who can high point these throws (like he did in TAM in Evans), it can be a high percentage throw. I don't know if that will translate in the NFL....but it sure can be pretty to look at.
Quote:You look at arm strength and durability first. Stats are PR.
ARM STRENGTH - When I see a quarterback, I look for the elite arm strength traits first. The easiest way to put it is the prospective quarterback must throw with the authority of a major league third baseman. Third basemen possess quick release, have velocity on their throw, and excellent touch on their throw so that its easy to catch. It takes time to turn the ball around and send it on it's way with mustard on it. Superior arm strength is a must.
Naturally strong arms don't have a lot of hang-time on deep throws. The elite throw has arc, but doesn't hang in the air the way it does with passers that must heave-ho to cover greater distances.
DURABILITY - After arm strength, the most important elite trait to look for is durability. Height, weight and physical fitness combined are essential to play quarterback, but durability can be more of personal challenge than the result of poor measurements. Durability isn't determined by mobility, elusiveness, or running ability. The stronger the body the more durability it has. The propensity for injury to a quarterback is always an issue. The more durable the quarterback is, the less frequent quarterback injury interrupts the team. The quarterback must be able to function despite injury.
If these two things aren't clear up front, the likelihood the prospect will reach elite status isn't so good.
I agree.
Also I look at the point of release. How much spin is on the ball. Another thing I look for is if a QB can throw in rythm, 3 step drop and boom the ball is out hitting the WR in stride while taking a shot from a defender and then get right back up and do it again.
And lastly his willingness to take shots down the field.
Quote:I think this stats proves why a lot of people like Bridgewater, and why some don't like him as much. The article points out that 50% of his throws are in the 1-10 yard range. However, as the article itself states, it does not take into account progression and reads. Those who watch Teddy often enough will know that a lot of these throws are indeed, check downs. They are not your typical Garrard/Gabbert checkdowns however, where its "Welp, first option covered, time to dump it off" kind of passes. Teddy typically goes through his entire progression first, leaving the checkdown as the last option...as it should be. However, what I really want to point out is this...
According to the stats, Bridgewater attempts 50% of his passes in the 1-10 yard zone. But the thing is, he completes 88% of his 1-5 yard passes, and 81% of his 6-10 yard passes.I don't know about you, but if my QB can complete 88% and 81% of his passes of the needed 10 yards to move the chains...I take it...especially since he also completes a good enough percentage on passes 11-20 yards zone. That his percentage remains high regardless on if he's blitzed, pressured, or has a clean pocket adds to the value of these stats.
It also validates what I've seen of Manziel. I think he throws a reallly nice deep sideline throw. They are often not thrown with great velocity, but have great touch. If you have the WR who can high point these throws (like he did in TAM in Evans), it can be a high percentage throw. I don't know if that will translate in the NFL....but it sure can be pretty to look at.
Yeah, my man @NU_gap did a great job with the aDOT stats in this article, but there was a lot of context missing that would help give some color to the stats too.
For example, Teddy completes so many in the 1-10 yard range because ULs offense ran more on 1st and 2nd than other 3, leaving him in 3 and medium quite often so of course he is going to attempt more in that range to move the chains.
Manziel's pass first (and usually second) offense meant that if he didn't complete the first down pass he was having to attempt to attempt more long passes on 2nd and 3rd and 10. That helps explain why he attempted so many 'NFL throws'. Also, with Johnny having elite offensive lines for his whole career it helped let routes develop longer or allow his scrambles to be more effective, so he was also able to attempt more deep passes.
Also, as I've said with Carr (as I am his only unbiased pseudo defender left), you have to approach scouting him with such a different mindset than any other QB because of that blasted offense. The screens and swings were basically Fresno's run game so of course he is going to have more throws in the sub 5 yard range. That also greatly lowers his attempt %s in the other quadrants naturally. Then you have to think about how many of his passes were forced and rushed deep because he had by far the worst oline of the group too. Scouting him based on aDOT statistics is an injustice to his skills, because that offense doesn't allow for proper measurements.
Confirms what I already think. Bortles or Bridgewater FTW.
Quote:Yeah, my man @NU_gap did a great job with the aDOT stats in this article, but there was a lot of context missing that would help give some color to the stats too.
For example, Teddy completes so many in the 1-10 yard range because ULs offense ran more on 1st and 2nd than other 3, leaving him in 3 and medium quite often so of course he is going to attempt more in that range to move the chains.
Manziel's pass first (and usually second) offense meant that if he didn't complete the first down pass he was having to attempt to attempt more long passes on 2nd and 3rd and 10. That helps explain why he attempted so many 'NFL throws'. Also, with Johnny having elite offensive lines for his whole career it helped let routes develop longer or allow his scrambles to be more effective, so he was also able to attempt more deep passes.
Also, as I've said with Carr (as I am his only unbiased pseudo defender left), you have to approach scouting him with such a different mindset than any other QB because of that blasted offense. The screens and swings were basically Fresno's run game so of course he is going to have more throws in the sub 5 yard range. That also greatly lowers his attempt %s in the other quadrants naturally. Then you have to think about how many of his passes were forced and rushed deep because he had by far the worst oline of the group too. Scouting him based on aDOT statistics is an injustice to his skills, because that offense doesn't allow for proper measurements.
Carr has such an arm talent...but it is so difficult to evaluate him because of the system that he plays in. The number of screen passes he throws has been talked about a lot. It's ridiculous how many throws he has that are behind the LOS. And even when they are not throwing those passes, it seems majority of his passes go to his first read. Not sure if this is how their offense is designed, or if he's just not progressing to the next reads for whatever reason. I think this also affects his accuracy overall...because for the most part when he throws the intermediate passes...they are thrown with great velocity and are thrown right into the body of the receiver.
However, because it is typically thrown quickly and to the first read...it seems like the guy is draped by his defender as soon as the ball gets there making it a more difficult catch. As I said, hard to say if this is a cause or more of an effect (of their system, OL play, etc)
But if you take everything away and just look at arm talent, I don't think there's doubt that Carr is at the top of this class. I just don't know that I'm willing to spend the #3 on him given all of these question marks.