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Quote:Indeed mate. I like your cruder take, going only by clear pick 6s/ST score than turnovers leading to short fields etc, as that skews the data even more.


Well, it's come this, grasping for excel sheets and calculators to see what if. The Jags are a case study with boundless angles.

 

I did an examination of just defensive and special teams scores in another thread a year ago here.  Essentially, when Blake throws a pick 6 we're immediately in a category where we have a roughly 30% chance of winning the game if our defense or special teams doesn't get a score back for us. They're devastating.

Very good thread JM! Thanks for all the analytics you're doing (have been doing) on this.


Of course every team has turnovers or situations that might put their defense in a bad spot, but it sure seems like the Jaguars defense is in bad spots very often (much more often than their opponents for that day, anyway).


Heck, I'm pretty sure that all of the KC scoring drives STARTED in FG range. At least 4/5 of their scoring drives started there due to INT, Fumble, Muffed Punt, Punt Returns.


Houston got a pick 6 and drive starting at the 7 yd line.


Detroit got a pick 6 and a punt return TD


Denver got a pick 6 and a drive starting in FG range due to fumble


Etc....



It annoys me that all these points are attributed to PPG given up by the defense. The Jags defense has been victimized by this FREQUENTLY this season (more than most teams, I'm sure).


Good posts.

Play#    Date                Opp        Player           Play              Result     Fld Position  Pts. Assigned   Pts. Scored   Winner      Final Score                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

1           2016-10-24     Broncos   Osweiler       Fumble          Turnover   HOU 25               3                       3              Broncos       27-9

2           2016-10-16     Colts        Osweiler       Int                  Turnover   HOU 20                 3                       7              Texans        26-23


3           2016-09-22     Patriots    ST/Fuller      Muffed Punt   Turnover   HOU 21                3                       7              Patriots        27-0


4           2016-09-22     Patriots    ST/James     Fumbled KR  Turnover   HOU 22               3                       7              Patriots        27-0


5           2016-09-11     Bears       Sp. Teams    Punt Return   Big Play    HOU 40                0                      0              Texans         23-14


6           2016-09-18     Chiefs      Sp. Teams    Punt Return   Big Play    HOU 34                3                      3              Texans         19-12


7           2016-10-09     Vikings     Sp. Teams    Punt Return   TD            Endzone               7                       7              Vikings        31-13


8           2016-11-21     Raiders    ST/Ervin        Muffed KR     Turnover  HOU 19                 3                      3              Raiders        27-20


                                                                                                                                                    25                    37                           

 

Houston.

Play#    Date                Opp          Player   Play        Result   Fld Position     Pts. Assigned   Pts. Scored     Winner        Final Score

 

1           2016-09-18     Broncos    Luck     Fumble     TD              Endzone                7                       7                Broncos      34-20


2           2016-09-18     Broncos    Luck     Int             TD              Endzone                7                       7                Broncos      34-20


3           2016-09-25     Chargers  Luck     Int             Turnover     IND 6                     3                       3                Colts           26-22


4           2016-10-30     Chiefs       Luck     Fumble     Turnover     IND 23                   0                       0                Chiefs         30-14


5           2016-10-30     Chiefs       Luck     Int             Turnover     IND 36                   3                       7                Chiefs         30-14


6           2016-11-06     Packers     Luck     Int             Turnover    IND 29                    3                       3                Colts           31-26


                                                                                                                                          23                      27                           

 

 

Colts.

I'll get to the Titans later.  I'm going to have to step away for a bit.  Of note, Colts special teams unit appears to be really solid with no real big plays given up.  Conversely, I'm not sure why our special teams coach still has a job.  As bad as Osweiler is, I think the Jags would be 6-6 or better with him at the helm.  Just my thoughts.

Terrific job Jaguarmeister! Kudos to you and a great (but sad) read!

But the rocket scientist dude (spacecoastjag) has been telling us it's the defenses fault

Quote:But the rocket scientist dude (spacecoastjag) has been telling us it's the defenses fault

 

That would be rocket surgeon.  

Quote:That would be rocket surgeon.  

 

 

lol .... here's his class photo

 

Maybe if Bradley saw this, we'd see Allen for the last few games, assuming he want's to go out with the best chance to win a few.  It ain't with Bortles.

I suspected I was missing something with my play search and I was correct.  It was not picking up muffed punts recovered by the punting team.  So I uncovered another play for the Jags.  The one where Marqise Lee fumbled a punt on our own 35 yard line which was recovered by the Titans.  I'll add it to the OP.

 

EDIT:  There were actually two more muffed punts one by Greene and another by Walters that I'll add to the OP.  I'm using the updated search on Houston and Indy and will update accordingly.

 

No turnovers off of muffed kicks or punts for Indy.  Found three for Houston.

Play#    Date              Opp          Player         Play             Result     Fld Position   Pts. Assigned   Pts. Scored  Winner     Final Score

 

1           2016-09-25   Raiders     Mariota        Fumble        Turnover   TEN 24                  3                       3              Raiders     17-10


3           2016-09-25   Raiders     Mariota        Int                Turnover   TEN 34                  0                       0              Raiders     17-10


4           2016-09-11   Vikings      Mariota        Fumble         TD            Endzone                7                       7              Vikings      25-16


5           2016-10-23   Colts         Mariota        Fumble         TD            Endzone                7                       7              Colts         34-26


6           2016-11-06   Chargers   Mariota        Int                 Turnover  TEN 15                  3                       3              Chargers  43-35


7           2016-11-06   Chargers   Mariota        Int                 TD           Endzone                7                       7              Chargers   43-35


8           2016-10-09   Dolphins    Sp. Teams   Punt Return  TD           Endzone                7                       7              Titans        30-17


9           2016-10-02   Texans      Sp. Teams   Punt Return  TD           Endzone                7                       7              Texans       27-20


                                                                                                                                                 41                      41                           

 

 

 

Titans

Bake Goatles is going nowhere. Sit down.!!!!

Unless Bortles plays lights out these next 4 games (I'm not holding my breath), I'll solidly be in the "Fire Caldwell" group if he ends up picking up the 5th year option in May assuming he's still here making the decisions.

 

I'd say 66 of the 313 points we've allowed this season should not be the Defense's responsibility which would put the real number allowed at 247.

 

Adjusting the entire division puts the Titans at 252 allowed, the Colts at 285 and the Texans at 229.

Quote:When your offense or ST puts the opponent in FG range, I think it's pretty safe and easy to assign at least the 3 points to whichever side of the ball is responsible depending on the circumstances.  I did not assign all 7 if a TD was given up as the Defense in most of the examples still had an opportunity to get a stop and force a FG.  Also, more often than not, if you're giving the opponent the ball inside your own 40, it means you probably didn't have possession very long and your defense is having to trot back out there on short rest.  It's the worst thing a team can do which negatively affects your chances of winning the game.  We seem to do it way too often.

 

Kinda like in baseball how a relief pitcher isn't responsible for runners already on base when he enters the game.  The current league wide successful FG percentage regardless of where the ball is being kicked from is 84.5%.  I don't think you can put the 3 on the D in these examples.

 

 

 

I disagree that 3 points is so automatic. If a team makes it to the 20, it's going to be a 37 or 38 yard FG. Anything beyond that is by no means a given. With that in mind, I can agree to assigning 3 points for turnovers or ST plays that result in the opponent getting the ball inside the red zone, but beyond that the defense most definitely has a chance to fend off the points.


 

With this in mind, the team had four such plays... A fumble, a muffed punt and two INTs. However, no points were scored off the fumble, so there are no points to subtract from the defense for that play. This leaves three plays where I can agree to assign the FG to the offense instead of the defense. Subtracting 9 more points puts the overall points scored against the defense at 276, which in turn works out to 23.0 points per game and would have them ranked 18th.


 

The points allowed breaks down as follows...


 

276 - defense


27 - offense


10 - special teams


313 - total

Quote:I disagree that 3 points is so automatic. If a team makes it to the 20, it's going to be a 37 or 38 yard FG. Anything beyond that is by no means a given. With that in mind, I can agree to assigning 3 points for turnovers or ST plays that result in the opponent getting the ball inside the red zone, but beyond that the defense most definitely has a chance to fend off the points.


 

With this in mind, the team had four such plays... A fumble, a muffed punt and two INTs. However, no points were scored off the fumble, so there are no points to subtract from the defense for that play. This leaves three plays where I can agree to assign the FG to the offense instead of the defense. Subtracting 9 more points puts the overall points scored against the defense at 276, which in turn works out to 23.0 points per game and would have them ranked 18th.


 

The points allowed breaks down as follows...


 

276 - defense


37 - offense


313 - total

 

We'll have to disagree then.  Even FG's attempted from the 30 yard line or farther away (47+ yd FGs) are made 60% of the time this year.  Maybe the fairer thing to do would be to apply the percentage made for a specific FG range to the 3 points and assign that amount of points to the responsible party (Offense or ST) and the other to the D.  That would be too tedious to actually do, but hanging all those points on a defense isn't a clean way of examining a defense's effectiveness at preventing scoring.  And I don't want to sound too much like I'm touting the defense here.  They need to get a lot more turnovers themselves.

The defence has clearly improved, and it's true the PPG stat is misleading.

Play#  Date              Opp           Player   Play        Result     Fld Position    Pts. Assigned     Pts. Scored     Winner        Final Score

 

1         2016-09-11   Cardinals   Blount   Fumble  Turnover     NE 33                   3                      7              Patriots       23-21


                                                                                                                             3                      7                              

 

 

 

The Patriots for [BAD WORD REMOVED] and giggles.  There was another play where the Cardinals got a sack fumble on Garoppolo inside FG Range but a personal foul on the Cards pushed them to the other side of the 50.  The Patriots clearly aren't giving away points. That's a well coached team.

Quote:I disagree that 3 points is so automatic. If a team makes it to the 20, it's going to be a 37 or 38 yard FG. Anything beyond that is by no means a given. With that in mind, I can agree to assigning 3 points for turnovers or ST plays that result in the opponent getting the ball inside the red zone, but beyond that the defense most definitely has a chance to fend off the points.


With this in mind, the team had four such plays... A fumble, a muffed punt and two INTs. However, no points were scored off the fumble, so there are no points to subtract from the defense for that play. This leaves three plays where I can agree to assign the FG to the offense instead of the defense. Subtracting 9 more points puts the overall points scored against the defense at 276, which in turn works out to 23.0 points per game and would have them ranked 18th.


The points allowed breaks down as follows...


276 - defense

27 - offense

10 - special teams

313 - total

Ravens game:


Bortles eludes a sack, rolls left, then fumbles the ball away in his own territory.


Ravens ball. Jags defense immediately holds. Justin Tucker comes out and nails a FG.

3 points there, the defense had nothing to do with it. They stopped the Ravens from advancing.


That's happened quite a few times this season. Heck, the KC game was almost nothing but possessions starting in FG range. Defense holds in 3 downs,, KC nails 3 points.