Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:the premise of the thread is qbs drafted in the first half of the first round vs the second half+2nd round. why are you guys including 3rd round and beyond qbs, even UDFAs lol

Well the article lists success rates for each round. So it's still relevant.

Quote:Well the article lists success rates for each round. So it's still relevant.

no actually its not, we are talking about the state of the jags, "franchise" qbs are drafted in the first two rounds beyond that are "projects". and yes wilson is an exception.

Quote:the premise of the thread is qbs drafted in the first half of the first round vs the second half+2nd round. why are you guys including 3rd round and beyond qbs, even UDFAs lol

What round was Russell Wilson drafted in? If he is used as a hit then misses in the 3rd should be counted as well.


Round 2-3 misses from 07-11 - Kolb, beck, Stanton, Edwards, Brohm, Henne, O'Connell, White, Clausen, McCoy.


The only 2 maybes are Kap and Dalton who both have looked meh this year.

Quote:Well the article lists success rates for each round. So it's still relevant.

They considered guys like Kyle Orton a success. We don't know that a guy like Ryan Mallet or Tyrod Taylor couldn't achieve that level of "success" if given an opportunity to start. That's why I put in the legitimate chance to start criteria.

Quote:They considered guys like Kyle Orton a success. We don't know that a guy like Ryan Mallet or Tyrod Taylor couldn't achieve that level of "success" if given an opportunity to start. That's why I put in the legitimate chance to start criteria in.

Ryan Mallett has looked abysmal in pre-season but I agree. He shouldn't count against because Brady is in front of him.

bleedingteal, bro, admit you made a mistake so we can move on  :whistling:

Quote:bleedingteal, bro, admit you made a mistake so we can move on :whistling:

The original quote I was responding to said 2nd half of first round or later. Sorry I defined later incorrectly, I guess.

Quote:http://www.bucsnation.com/2013/11/14/510...draft-pick

 

In the past 13 years the chances of a QB panning out are literally cut in half once you get to the second half of the first round. They also drop by 20% from the top 5 to picks 6-15. 

 

Almost everyone seems to agree that we should pick a QB if we are drafting first, but i thought this article really clarifies how rare it is to hit on a QB after the first round. 

 

Even if we miss out on Teddy I think the clear pick is Mariota. He isnt perfect but you cant wait until a perfect prospect falls into your lap. Waiting and settling will most likely get you no where. 

 

The following is a list of quarterbacks taken with the first pick of the draft (number one over-all) dating back to 1966.

 

2013 - None

2012 - Andrew Luck 

2011 - Cam Newton

2010 - Sam Bradford

2009 - Matthew Stafford

2008 - None

2007 - JaMarcus Russell

2006 - None

2005 - Alex Smith

2004 - Eli Manning - Super Bowl

2003 - Carson Palmer

2002 - David Carr

2001 - Michael Vick

2000 - None 

1999 - Tim Couch

1998 - Peyton Manning  - Super Bowl

1997 - None

1996 - None

1995 - None

1994 - None

1993 - Drew Bledsoe - Super Bowl

1992 - None

1991 - None

1990 - Jeff George

1989 - Troy Aikman - Super Bowl

1988 - None

1987 - Vinny Testaverde

1986 - None

1985 - None

1984 - None

1983 - John Elway - Super Bowl

1982 - None

1981 - None

1980 - None

1979 - None

1978 - None

1977 - None

1976 - None

1975 - Steve Bartkowski

1974 - None

1973 - None

1972 - None

1971 - Jim Plunkett - Super Bowl

1970 - Terry Bradshaw Super Bowl

1969 - None

1968 - None

1967 - None

1966 - None

Quote:True.

What if they didn't tho lmao. what a fail that would be. 

Quote:Of players who have been given a legitimate chance to start, in that time frame the successful :

 

Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson 

 

The unsuccessful:

 

Chad Henne, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen 

 

Special category:

 

Josh Freeman 

Quote:Guys like Ryan Mallet and Kirk Cousin haven't had a chance to play yet that's why he's leaving them out.

 

^^^ These things.

 

For those who know of my fairly random, sarcasm-filled posts regarding the expectation/hope that the Jags continue to flop all the way to the #1 pick which MUST (sarcasm again) be Teddy Bridgewater, the referenced players above coupled with the list of QBs taken #1 are my exact point. This is NOT a draft with a Luck or Manning. AKA an absolute, near as can be 100% concensus "THIS IS THE GUY TO BE PICKED FIRST" quarterback.

 

This is a draft with a favored quarterback to go first (Teddy B.), an arguable second-best who continues to rise (Mariotta, and then the Stanford game, lol), and several more quarterbacks that all have very strong arguments to be first-round picks, almost any of whom could be the third quarterback picked behind the likely 1A/1B of Bridgewater and Mariotta.

 

That list of QBs that have been #1 picks makes it very clear that even as the first pick of the draft, complete success is still a 50/50 shot. Couch/Carr/Russell as busts. Bradford isn't typically labeled a bust but hasn't quite put it together. Palmer had a streak of some good years but overall, opinions would differ if asking if he was worthy of the pick. Vick is exciting, but... That's a debate I wouldn't want to touch. Talented though. Newton slumped as a second year but looks solid. Alex Smith FINALLY put it together, and is still really a game manager. Who was drafted first. And then you've a few that were clearly good picks as number 1.

 

Granted, some of these suffered in part because they were talents stuck on awful teams. But what's that go to show? Oh, yeah. That a quarterback with talents out of this world still is guaranteed to change the world for a franchise.

 

And just the same, some are taken later in the first (or later, sure) that turn out just as good. Aaron Rodgers, anyone? Big Ben at #11. Philip Rivers wasn't the first pick... Etc etc.

 

For me, it's the simple point that if we win 2-3 games, we're still just as likely (ok, nearly as likely) to end up with a star-caliber quarterback from this draft. I'm not condoning waiting until the second round (though I'd be happy with the first pick and trading back a few spots, at worst), but it does not have to be the end of the world if we don't get the first pick.

 

And we can get the first pick and still be wrong. Even if drafting Teddy Bridgewater number 1. It COULD be POSSIBLE that it still turns out WRONG.

 

 

 

In the grand scheme of it all, the real thing of key importance is that we have the proper decision-makers in place to make the right choice.