Maybe. You have to think no matter what happens with Bortles this year that they still have hope that the other skill position players can get it done with a different signal caller involved moving forward.
I don't think AR15 has earned a large extension. I would wait and see what he does this year.
I'm mixed about this one. We know how solid Robinson can be as a #1. Then we have what transpired last year. I think that entire 2016 season was just an absolute train wreck, so I'm almost willing to give him a pass on that because of all the issues the offense was dealing with.
From a business perspective, the team has a heck of a lot more leverage right now coming off a less than stellar season, so there might be a bargain to be made here. From his perspective, he may want a little redemption before they starts talking numbers.
(07-26-2017, 10:22 AM)FBT Wrote: [ -> ]I'm mixed about this one. We know how solid Robinson can be as a #1. Then we have what transpired last year. I think that entire 2016 season was just an absolute train wreck, so I'm almost willing to give him a pass on that because of all the issues the offense was dealing with.
From a business perspective, the team has a heck of a lot more leverage right now coming off a less than stellar season, so there might be a bargain to be made here. From his perspective, he may want a little redemption before they starts talking numbers.
Right. I don't think it's ridiculous to imagine ARob wants to be paid like he's coming off of his 2015 season while the team is making an offer more fitting of the season he just had.
Personally I think he's a great talent and will make us forget 2016 this year, but if November rolls around and he's at 35 catches, 500 yards, and 3 TDs then he might end up wishing he'd signed right now.
I could see the Jags offering him something like 5 years at 55 mil with ~30 guaranteed. Just don't know if they try to do it now or later.
At his very best, Robinson is capable of 1400 yard and 14 TDs.
Last year was a dumpster fire on so many different levels, he can't be blamed for being unable to rise above the dysfunction.
He's a guy with good size who can jump and get deep. We went a decade without a credible threat at WR, in the process discovering that WRs are NOT a dime a dozen, contrary to what Ketchman would have you believe.
We need to re-sign him.
(07-26-2017, 11:27 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I could see the Jags offering him something like 5 years at 55 mil with ~30 guaranteed. Just don't know if they try to do it now or later.
If they were able to sign him for that price, you almost have to do it. If he returns to 2015 form, he will command 14-17 million dependent on what the other receivers in that great class sign for. If he has another 2016, then he is still going to command 9 or 10 million per year as an excellent number 2 receiver.
(07-26-2017, 12:04 PM)rufftime Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2017, 11:27 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I could see the Jags offering him something like 5 years at 55 mil with ~30 guaranteed. Just don't know if they try to do it now or later.
If they were able to sign him for that price, you almost have to do it. If he returns to 2015 form, he will command 14-17 million dependent on what the other receivers in that great class sign for. If he has another 2016, then he is still going to command 9 or 10 million per year as an excellent number 2 receiver.
Yeah. I guess I should say that would be my offer
now. Not later.
If they wait they stand a chance of paying a larger number if Bortles returns to form.
(07-26-2017, 12:21 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2017, 12:04 PM)rufftime Wrote: [ -> ]If they were able to sign him for that price, you almost have to do it. If he returns to 2015 form, he will command 14-17 million dependent on what the other receivers in that great class sign for. If he has another 2016, then he is still going to command 9 or 10 million per year as an excellent number 2 receiver.
Yeah. I guess I should say that would be my offer now. Not later.
If they wait they stand a chance of paying a larger number if Bortles returns to form.
Completely agreed. 55 million would be a bargain for a #1 level WR, it he has another year on the level of 2015 it'll literally be tens of millions of dollars difference in his deal.
Of course if he's having another 2016 and it's not seen as being all on Bortles then he could see his deal shrink.
Still, being what we know of his ability so far if he's betting on himself to be better than in 2016 I think that's a good bet.
Has A-Rob proven beyond a doubt that he will be able to consistently beat double coverage that inevitably rolls to #1 receiving threats? I am not so sure. As a matter a fact I think he displayed that he couldn't more times than not last year. But I'm not holding many players responsible for a lot that happened last year for several reasons. I won't mind if they sign him soon for as cheap as possible.
(07-26-2017, 01:08 PM)Jagwired Wrote: [ -> ]Has A-Rob proven beyond a doubt that he will be able to consistently beat double coverage that inevitably rolls to #1 receiving threats? I am not so sure...
Right. This is why I like the "lowball" offer idea now as well.
However, Bortles' ball placement and timing greatly affected A-Rob's performance when his CB had safety help. He did actually get open a respectable amount vs double teams - but the ball wasn't often on time or on target.
I don't place a lot of stock in the whole "true number one receiver" thing. If your corps as a whole has varying skill sets, a team can overcome not having that - and the Jags have that sort of corps coming together now.
For that reason - A-Rob doesn't necessarily have to be that go-to #1 guy always beating double teams. Though I think he can do it just enough to sit atop the Jags' depth chart.
Hopefully they get him cheap now. (under 12 mil per year)
(07-26-2017, 10:22 AM)FBT Wrote: [ -> ]I'm mixed about this one. We know how solid Robinson can be as a #1. Then we have what transpired last year. I think that entire 2016 season was just an absolute train wreck, so I'm almost willing to give him a pass on that because of all the issues the offense was dealing with.
From a business perspective, the team has a heck of a lot more leverage right now coming off a less than stellar season, so there might be a bargain to be made here. From his perspective, he may want a little redemption before they starts talking numbers.
This has been my struggle, too. It's easy to blame Bortles for Robinson's struggles last season, but there were plenty of marginally thrown balls that hit him squarely in the hands. Those have to be caught. His struggles beating the jam off the line last season contributed to his issues, but so did a patchwork OL that didn't always allow him time to make the breaks out of routes to get open. Last season was such a complete dumpster fire that I'm almost willing to give him a pass.
Say he gets an extension this season, coming off of a sub par year and makes the Pro Bowl (a possible incentive in his new contract), everybody wins. The team has signed a more team-friendly contract (with a possible team option for years 4 and 5), and AR15 got a big payday. The only way this blows up is if he just flat sucks this year, which hasn't been the case with him yet.
At 12 or even 13 mil a year with 30 guaranteed, I would think we got an alright deal, even if he only did 1k this year again. But if he goes back to 2015, that will be a great deal.
There's several players I would like to see return to their 2015 production... Robinson being one of them... I hope the FO doesn't offer him a bunch of money until he proves his value... there were balls he could/should have caught and I think he would have in 2015... for, whatever reason, be it injury or something else, he looked like he gave up on routes last year... he just wasn't as sharp going into and coming out of his routes like he was in 2015...
(07-26-2017, 12:00 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]At his very best, Robinson is capable of 1400 yard and 14 TDs.
Last year was a dumpster fire on so many different levels, he can't be blamed for being unable to rise above the dysfunction.
He's a guy with good size who can jump and get deep. We went a decade without a credible threat at WR, in the process discovering that WRs are NOT a dime a dozen, contrary to what Ketchman would have you believe.
We need to re-sign him.
Exactly. We keep seeing him make crazy catches and we know he has the talent. Sign him now and you're sure to get him at a great rate with roughly the same money as the Hurns and Linder deals. If you wait 'til he breaks out, he just might break the bank or could become nearly impossible to sign.
People love to point out he had a bad year but his QB was not making it easy for hiim. Pay Da MAN! He deserves top 10 wr money. I think he could be dominant with a good consistent QB.
(07-26-2017, 07:47 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2017, 12:00 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]At his very best, Robinson is capable of 1400 yard and 14 TDs.
Last year was a dumpster fire on so many different levels, he can't be blamed for being unable to rise above the dysfunction.
He's a guy with good size who can jump and get deep. We went a decade without a credible threat at WR, in the process discovering that WRs are NOT a dime a dozen, contrary to what Ketchman would have you believe.
We need to re-sign him.
Exactly. We keep seeing him make crazy catches and we know he has the talent. Sign him now and you're sure to get him at a great rate with roughly the same money as the Hurns and Linder deals. If you wait 'til he breaks out, he just might break the bank or could become nearly impossible to sign.
Precisely.
I think if Bortles turns it around and shows more consistency, if he is to do it for longer than just this year, he's going to need Robinson.
If Bortles proves he's not the QB this team needs, assuming the team goes into the draft to get one, the last thing the new guy needs is his main receiver to either be not as talented or a rookie to help him adjust to the game. Any rookie QB will need an experienced main WR to give him perspectives on identifying and adjusting to various coverages.
Here is the one thing you could do... Sign him to a deal a little more lucrative than Hurns, and if he balls out you are getting him on the cheap again compared to his production. This could result in holdouts, but ultimately I don't think it would. If he flops, you can always cut ties with minimal issue as well.
I am in the camp of 'wait and see'. If by week 10 he has 800 yards and multiple TDs, you lock him up before the season ends. Plus this would mean Bortles is lighting it up too, which would be really nice.
Now, it's all about guaranteed money.