Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Look at this chart:





There's absolutely ZERO reason for Blake to throw the ball that much. Brees and Rodgers are one thing. Looks like the sweet spot is between 450-550. I'd expect Blake to hang out around 500 with a better run game.

Agreed. Way to many pass attempts. I think he's going to be just fine with better coaching and a running game.

Quote:Look at this chart:





There's absolutely ZERO reason for Blake to throw the ball that much. Brees and Rodgers are one thing. Looks like the sweet spot is between 450-550. I'd expect Blake to hang out around 500 with a better run game.

 

Does anything about that chart stand out to you?  To me there is something very glaring, telling and clues me in on what the current front office is trying to accomplish.

 

There are only 3 teams that made it to the playoffs with a quarterback throwing the ball more than 550 times.

 

Carr (Raiders) - 560 attempts - Made it as a wildcard.

Stafford (Lions) - 594 attempts - Made it as a wildcard.

Manning (Giants) - 598 attempts - Made it as a wildcard.

Rogers (Packers) - 610 attempts - Made it as the 4th seed of the conference.

 

Of those teams, the only team to advance not only to the divisional round, but also the conference championship was the Packers.

 

The bottom line is, you can't rely on just the passing game.  Running game and special teams also play a role for success.

dang cam newton sucks lol. 

I still believe in Blake.  He has more work to do obviously, as does most NFL quarterbacks, but I think if the Jags can get that running game going he'll shut a lot of pessimistic mouths around here.

I think Blake has realized the fun and games are over and it's time to go to work. Let's hope that work will show up on gameday.

You throw that much when you're team is pretty much behind at the kickoff of every game.

had no idea flacco technically had a worse season then Blake did in the TD/int category, but he still was head over heels better in accuracy. Wonder why no ome really talked about flaccos down year that much.

Quote:had no idea flacco technically had a worse season then Blake did in the TD/int category, but he still was head over heels better in accuracy. Wonder why no ome really talked about flaccos down year that much.

Bc he won a SB. Look at Eli's and Rivers' numbers too. Albeit Rivers had a lot more tds

Quote:Look at this chart:





There's absolutely ZERO reason for Blake to throw the ball that much. Brees and Rodgers are one thing. Looks like the sweet spot is between 450-550. I'd expect Blake to hang out around 500 with a better run game.

 

 

I'm not sure how you figured that "sweet spot" considering the lowest guy had like 490 and 2nd to lat guy had about 510.


 

Looking at this chart I'd say the sweet spot is in the 540 to 580 range, or 560 +/- 20 passes. 560 passes works out to 35 per game.

Quote:I'm not sure how you figured that "sweet spot" considering the lowest guy had like 490 and 2nd to lat guy had about 510.


Looking at this chart I'd say the sweet spot is in the 540 to 580 range, or 560 +/- 20 passes. 560 passes works out to 35 per game.

The screen shot doesn't show the whole league. Mariota was around 430, so was Brady (after missing 4 games)

Quote:The screen shot doesn't show the whole league. Mariota was around 430, so was Brady (after missing 4 games)

 

 

Oh.... that makes more sense.


 

Although both qbs missed time. If you focus on qbs who played 16 games, the sweet spot has to start higher than 450.

Quote:Oh.... that makes more sense.


 

Although both qbs missed time. If you focus on qbs who played 16 games, the sweet spot has to start higher than 450.

 

I'd guess they'll aim for between 30 and 35 attempts per game for him  - and hope they actually need that many passes vs opponents with weaker run defense. 

 

(30 per game is 480. )

Quote:Does anything about that chart stand out to you?  To me there is something very glaring, telling and clues me in on what the current front office is trying to accomplish.

 

There are only 3 teams that made it to the playoffs with a quarterback throwing the ball more than 550 times.

 

Carr (Raiders) - 560 attempts - Made it as a wildcard.

Stafford (Lions) - 594 attempts - Made it as a wildcard.

Manning (Giants) - 598 attempts - Made it as a wildcard.

Rogers (Packers) - 610 attempts - Made it as the 4th seed of the conference.

 

Of those teams, the only team to advance not only to the divisional round, but also the conference championship was the Packers.

 

The bottom line is, you can't rely on just the passing game.  Running game and special teams also play a role for success.

The only reason Tom Brady isn't up there is cause he missed 4 games. Sry but that theory doesn't hold up. You can win with passing if your guy is good enough.

 

Also Bradys previous Super Bowl win he threw 582 attempts that season. He threw 611 in 2011, and 578 in 2007 (the other super bowl years). I won't look at 2004,2003, 2001 because pre-2006 the game was different (no Roger Goodell, less basketball on grass etc.)

What stands out to me is Wentz throwing 600+ as a rookie, wow they rode that kid.

The most telling issue from that whole chart is that out of those twenty or twenty one starting quarterbacks from last year is that he had the worst completion percentage. And was tied for 3rd place with most INT's thrown. He's also tied for 2nd worst YPA out of that list. Even if we scaled back the volume on his overall workload for the year. How much does that help him? 

 

Bottom line, he has to make the most with his attempts. Even if we scaled him down to say 520 - 550 pass attempts for the year. How much better will his numbers really improve? He's yet to show much improvement in the accuracy department since his rookie season. He's yet to show much improvement with his reading and reacting abilities when it comes to various coverages. Just not sure he's going to look all that much more impressive in 2017. 

 

I'd be happy if he could finish the year as a 7 - 9 or 8 - 8 QB with at least 63% on his completions, and where he finishes with just North of 20 TD passes and avoids double digit INT's for the first time in his career. Just manage the game and work around the running game. Stop forcing plays that aren't there. He's not Brett Favre. 

With an improved defense, and an improved running game, I can foresee an improved Time of Possession, lower point totals for the opposition, fewer interceptions from our passing game, and more final scores like 17-13, 20-10, etc. Hopefully, this year we're on the winning side of those close scores.