11-06-2016, 11:59 AM
I posted this in another forum in response to a question about Trump's qualification for the high office.
I believe right now he has somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 separate legal entities that he owns, I don't need to list them all but he makes certain products in china, mexico builds all across the world etc. etc. So he has experience working within diverse constellations of trade conditions and circumstances that lends itself to the belief that he knows what can attract business and what can dissuade business.
First let's deal with two questions.
1.) Qualifications: You're right. The presidency is the most complex stressful job in the world. So much so that aging in noticeably accelerated for the person who holds office and it is widely believed that it will literally take years off your life. It spans across so many disciplines that in reality no one person is qualified to preside over them all. If you polled congress and the executive branch you might find a handful of them that knew what a Credit Default Swap was before 2006. That's the reality of managing a 16 trillion dollar economy and the most complex system of geo-politics and foreign policy in history. That being said each president brings with them a certain level of expertise in a certain area of focus and then you look for the people that are the best able to build a team around them to execute the duties and responsibilities of the highest office. The key responsibility of the chief executive is to provide vision and accountability for achieving that vision in the various areas of the government.
For example, Barrack Obama had little to no real interest in managing foreign policy. His main area of training and focus was on redistributive justice (his words). His vision for a less intrusive Footprint in America was a goal that he set and made sure was implemented. He wasn't the person that actually drew up the day to day battle plans during the surge in Afghanistan or the eventual pull out of Iraq, he had a basic ideology and appointed people who shared it.
In Trump's case he has a vast array of business knowledge and experience dealing with foreign countries and entities. That's what he naturally brings to the table. In addition to that he also brings the prospect of a team of aids ambassadors negotiators etc. that could be drawn from the private sector as a reflection of their actual expertise and ability instead of their history of campaign contributions or party loyalty. He has also talked about picking the Patton or the MacArthur of our generation to lead us in the fight against global terrorism, potential expansion of Russia, their potential alliance with China Etc. etc.
In other words, you don't judge the coach by how well he throws a ball, you judge him on his ability to coach a team. I think that Trump demonstrates an inordinate (while imperfect-we all are) ability to achieve success in diverse areas specifically trade.
2.) Turnberry. I could make a case for Trump as president just based on this one example. a.) international investing is a hell of a lot bigger than just submitting a piece of paper and a golf course just springing out of nothing. you have to have relationships within the foreign government, develop routes of supply for both the construction of the project and relationships with vendors over the life of the project. you have to have longterm forecasts for political stability or instability, the availability of capital in the tourism markets, that involves currency valuations, longterm economic forecasts, relationships with the local community etc. etc. etc. b.) Trump gets no credit for timming the opening of the course the Morning after Brexit. This demonstrated that he was way ahead of the curve on predicting the geopolitical climate around the EU and the backlash of Global trade. The press conference that he gave was probably the best example of what the PRESIDENTIAL Trump would look like. He didn't boast of brag that he was right. He was complimentary of the decision by the UK but not lecturing like a foreign step mother. He also provided a sense of calm. At the time the dow was off a cliff and the pound sterling looked like it would wither away to nothing. Trump was right that a short term competitive devaluation would lead to a positive economic forecast because it would make the UK a more desireable potential tourist destination and Make British Exports more attractive to foreign consumers. In the weeks after the Dow is at record highs and no one is talking about the UK hanging off a cliff. He also went out of his way to be complimentary of the regulators and officials in Scotland, that had frankly been hammering him in a lot of ways. Why is this important? A big part of Britain actually initiating article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be contingent on the Scotland's future relationship within the UK. He signaled his own heritage and allegiance to Scotland while giving the conservative party leadership in Britain the promise of a "Strong trade relationship" with the US moving forward, a sharp contrast to the threat from the Obama policy of a free Britain going to the BACK OF THE QUE in negotiating a trade deal. That helps to strengthen his natural allies within the Torries and give Theresa May a Carrot in her negotiations to potentially keep Scotland as part of a free Britain.
I believe right now he has somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 separate legal entities that he owns, I don't need to list them all but he makes certain products in china, mexico builds all across the world etc. etc. So he has experience working within diverse constellations of trade conditions and circumstances that lends itself to the belief that he knows what can attract business and what can dissuade business.
First let's deal with two questions.
1.) Qualifications: You're right. The presidency is the most complex stressful job in the world. So much so that aging in noticeably accelerated for the person who holds office and it is widely believed that it will literally take years off your life. It spans across so many disciplines that in reality no one person is qualified to preside over them all. If you polled congress and the executive branch you might find a handful of them that knew what a Credit Default Swap was before 2006. That's the reality of managing a 16 trillion dollar economy and the most complex system of geo-politics and foreign policy in history. That being said each president brings with them a certain level of expertise in a certain area of focus and then you look for the people that are the best able to build a team around them to execute the duties and responsibilities of the highest office. The key responsibility of the chief executive is to provide vision and accountability for achieving that vision in the various areas of the government.
For example, Barrack Obama had little to no real interest in managing foreign policy. His main area of training and focus was on redistributive justice (his words). His vision for a less intrusive Footprint in America was a goal that he set and made sure was implemented. He wasn't the person that actually drew up the day to day battle plans during the surge in Afghanistan or the eventual pull out of Iraq, he had a basic ideology and appointed people who shared it.
In Trump's case he has a vast array of business knowledge and experience dealing with foreign countries and entities. That's what he naturally brings to the table. In addition to that he also brings the prospect of a team of aids ambassadors negotiators etc. that could be drawn from the private sector as a reflection of their actual expertise and ability instead of their history of campaign contributions or party loyalty. He has also talked about picking the Patton or the MacArthur of our generation to lead us in the fight against global terrorism, potential expansion of Russia, their potential alliance with China Etc. etc.
In other words, you don't judge the coach by how well he throws a ball, you judge him on his ability to coach a team. I think that Trump demonstrates an inordinate (while imperfect-we all are) ability to achieve success in diverse areas specifically trade.
2.) Turnberry. I could make a case for Trump as president just based on this one example. a.) international investing is a hell of a lot bigger than just submitting a piece of paper and a golf course just springing out of nothing. you have to have relationships within the foreign government, develop routes of supply for both the construction of the project and relationships with vendors over the life of the project. you have to have longterm forecasts for political stability or instability, the availability of capital in the tourism markets, that involves currency valuations, longterm economic forecasts, relationships with the local community etc. etc. etc. b.) Trump gets no credit for timming the opening of the course the Morning after Brexit. This demonstrated that he was way ahead of the curve on predicting the geopolitical climate around the EU and the backlash of Global trade. The press conference that he gave was probably the best example of what the PRESIDENTIAL Trump would look like. He didn't boast of brag that he was right. He was complimentary of the decision by the UK but not lecturing like a foreign step mother. He also provided a sense of calm. At the time the dow was off a cliff and the pound sterling looked like it would wither away to nothing. Trump was right that a short term competitive devaluation would lead to a positive economic forecast because it would make the UK a more desireable potential tourist destination and Make British Exports more attractive to foreign consumers. In the weeks after the Dow is at record highs and no one is talking about the UK hanging off a cliff. He also went out of his way to be complimentary of the regulators and officials in Scotland, that had frankly been hammering him in a lot of ways. Why is this important? A big part of Britain actually initiating article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be contingent on the Scotland's future relationship within the UK. He signaled his own heritage and allegiance to Scotland while giving the conservative party leadership in Britain the promise of a "Strong trade relationship" with the US moving forward, a sharp contrast to the threat from the Obama policy of a free Britain going to the BACK OF THE QUE in negotiating a trade deal. That helps to strengthen his natural allies within the Torries and give Theresa May a Carrot in her negotiations to potentially keep Scotland as part of a free Britain.