In week 5 we beat Pittsburgh 30-9. 17 of our points came off turnovers. Our defense held them to 3 field goals. So lets look at the additions and subtractions to both teams for the rematch.
Jags:
We added Darius to a defense that already shut them down to 3 fg
We added Lambo to replace meyers (kicking could be a concern with he weather conditions better to have lambo)
Steelesr:
Lost Jesse James for the season their #1 tight end
AB coming off injury might be a little rust there
Lost Shazier their #2 tackler and captain of the Defense
The weather will be in play Sunday but BB only threw the ball 14 times in that game so if 4net can get the run game going and getting TJ back, I expect our defense to actually be better now then it was then. I think we can expect the same type of game.
I don't think the steelers will be so stupid this time and abandon the run for the pass against our defense.
I also doubt Rothlisberger has such a bad outing twice against us. He's better than he played that day.
The Jags on the other hand will need to make adjustments to their offensive gameplan as their run game isn't looking so sharp and that's what won it for them last time. (aided obviously the ridiculous number of INTs and short fields)
I think the Jags will need to find a way to scheme open a receiver, TE, or RB on first down fairly often to shorten or limit the third down conversions. Of course this means they'll need a bit better accuracy from Blake and some sure hands in bone-chilling temps by the targeted receivers. If they can do that - they may be able to lighten the box and get the run game going before halftime.
They actually did this ^ a bit against buffalo - but there were execution problems too often. They attempted a pass or gadget play in 5 of 8 first downs in the first half yesterday in fact. That's a pretty healthy percentage. They'll need to execute those first down completions when they try them against pittsburgh.
Hackett showed a bit more creativity in the run game vs buffalo than in weeks 16 & 17. He'll need to continue that trend and add a wrinkle or two as well to create lanes for his backs moving forward.
So here's a few things that wont happen.
Big Ben will not throw 5 INTS.
Le Veon Bell will not rush less than 50 yards
PITTS will not score less than 10 points
This is why the Jags need to make something happen on offense. AKA let Bortles throw deeper than 5 yards since I am sure PITT will stack the box.
We can not rely100% on our defense to keep PITT out of the endzone because they will score some.
Get Cole and Hurns involved with more deep passes. I'm okay with risking interceptions; our defense is good enough to keep anyone out of the end zone. But if our defense is on the field for too long, that will wear them down, and you'll see a blowout, like against the 49ers.
We need to do a better job of running the ball. If Fournette plays like he did yesterday, I'd limit his carries and give them to a hotter back, like Yeldon, or even Grant.
Yes, Bortles needs to run more when he can.
One big plus for us is TJ Yeldon.
He is the change of pace and 3rd down back we need, we missed him against the Bills.
Hopefully 4Nette just hits the line with a vengeance.