Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(04-22-2018, 04:56 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-22-2018, 04:43 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I'm still not sold on this, and here's why.

As I showed earlier, Dareus has more career sacks and a higher sacks per year average than Malik Jackson, although for all intents and purposes, on a per year average, they are pretty much even.

However, there are other things to factor into those numbers.

First, Malik Jackson played with two of the best pass rushers in the league in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware (who was still effective even though he wasn't the guy he was in Dallas).  Dareus didn't have anyone close to Miller's caliber as a pass rusher in Buffalo.  Furthermore, Jackson's teams were better and generally played with more leads, thanks to Peyton Manning.  Dareus typically didn't have that luxury.

Second, Marcell Dareus' numbers were adversely impacted by the stupid scheme change from Schwartz's attacking 4-3 to Rex Ryan's 3-4.  Buffalo went from registering 54 sacks in 2014 (Schwartz's last year as defensive coordinator) to 21 in 2015 (Rex Ryan's first).  While there was improvement the next year, the fact is, that scheme change hurt Dareus' numbers.

But for these things, Dareus would have a larger edge in sack numbers, and that would alter the perception over who was more disruptive rushing the passer between Jackson and Dareus.

Remember that Jackson has only played 3 seasons as a starter.  Pressures give a much better picture of how disruptive a player is on a down by down basis. In Dareus's best ever pass rushing season (2014) he had 35 pressures.   

It's kind of an odd argument becuase they play different roles and styles. Dareus is a guy who eats blocks and can still play provide some disruption. He's a 1 tech who can moonlight at the 3 due to his talent. Malik is a pure 3 tech who pins his ears back to disrupt. Like you mentioned in Rex Ryan's defense his job wasn't to pass rush. 

I'm not sure anyone would call Dareus an elite pass rushing interior player anymore. Malik is. And this is not to say Dareus is worthless or anything, he's a great player and has been one of the best tackles in the league bar a down year or two. Just if we're talking pure pass rushing ability he isn't on the same scale as Malik.

I second this.

Pressures are arguably more important than sacks, and Malik is much better here. 

Again though, this is not to say Dareus is a bad player, just different. And IMO the easier one to replace in this style defense, if we had to.

(04-22-2018, 09:38 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]All of this Fowler talk boils down to one thing: the Jags have two other very good DEs. If the Jags didn't have Ngakoue and/or Campbell then this question wouldn't be asked because no GM in his right mind would let a young and improving DE reach free agency.

I think the overriding factor is our salary cap situation in 2019.  I don't see how we can keep him.  

So then the question is, do we make a move that benefits 2019, or do we stand pat for the benefit of 2018?   It's not an easy call.  The problem with trading him is that he is in the last year of his contract.  So any team trading for him is only getting him on a one year deal unless they give him an extension.   That lowers his trade value substantially. 

So, let him play it out, or get a 2019 3rd round pick?   It's not an easy call.  But since players get injured all the time, and pass rush is so important, and we are so close to the top of the mountain, I'd let him play it out and not trade him.  That would be my choice.  But I could see the front office going either way.

(04-23-2018, 05:16 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-22-2018, 09:38 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]All of this Fowler talk boils down to one thing: the Jags have two other very good DEs. If the Jags didn't have Ngakoue and/or Campbell then this question wouldn't be asked because no GM in his right mind would let a young and improving DE reach free agency.

I think the overriding factor is our salary cap situation in 2019.  I don't see how we can keep him.  

So then the question is, do we make a move that benefits 2019, or do we stand pat for the benefit of 2018?   It's not an easy call.  The problem with trading him is that he is in the last year of his contract.  So any team trading for him is only getting him on a one year deal unless they give him an extension.   That lowers his trade value substantially. 

So, let him play it out, or get a 2019 3rd round pick?   It's not an easy call.  But since players get injured all the time, and pass rush is so important, and we are so close to the top of the mountain, I'd let him play it out and not trade him.  That would be my choice.  But I could see the front office going either way.

We could have an injury 3 games into the season that makes the decision easier.

I think the main thing to remember here is that Fowler is an ascending productive pass rusher that's only 23 years old....we shouldn't let him walk for a productive lineman that's reaching the downside of their careers.

 I ABSOLUTELY LOVE Calais Campbell. I think his presence changed the culture and he had an amazing season last year, but he is almost 9 years older than Dante.... Let's see how he looks this year. Let's see how everyone looks and make the tough decisions after the season. 

If we trade Fowler now for a third rounder and he shines somewhere else and one of our guys gets injured or falls of a cliff production-wise, this whole board will be losing it.

I don't think this is a decision that needs to be made now at all.

I think Campbell will have another good year, but i dont see him producing like last year. Fowler will be the long term answer.

(04-23-2018, 06:01 AM)Achilles Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 05:16 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I think the overriding factor is our salary cap situation in 2019.  I don't see how we can keep him.  

So then the question is, do we make a move that benefits 2019, or do we stand pat for the benefit of 2018?   It's not an easy call.  The problem with trading him is that he is in the last year of his contract.  So any team trading for him is only getting him on a one year deal unless they give him an extension.   That lowers his trade value substantially. 

So, let him play it out, or get a 2019 3rd round pick?   It's not an easy call.  But since players get injured all the time, and pass rush is so important, and we are so close to the top of the mountain, I'd let him play it out and not trade him.  That would be my choice.  But I could see the front office going either way.

We could have an injury 3 games into the season that makes the decision easier.

I think the main thing to remember here is that Fowler is an ascending productive pass rusher that's only 23 years old....we shouldn't let him walk for a productive lineman that's reaching the downside of their careers.

 I ABSOLUTELY LOVE Calais Campbell. I think his presence changed the culture and he had an amazing season last year, but he is almost 9 years older than Dante.... Let's see how he looks this year. Let's see how everyone looks and make the tough decisions after the season. 

If we trade Fowler now for a third rounder and he shines somewhere else and one of our guys gets injured or falls of a cliff production-wise, this whole board will be losing it.

I don't think this is a decision that needs to be made now at all.

The decision as to whether or not to extend his contract into 2019 must be made by May 2nd. That's 9 days from now. 

Of course even if management plans to keep him they could opt to not extend his contract and try to negotiate a deal after this season when he becomes a free agent.

I'm firmly in the yes, extend him, camp.

Calais disappeared as a pass rusher the last half of the season as well as the postseason. I see Fowler taking some snaps away from Campbell this season ultimately leading to Campbell being cut in the 2019 offseason

(04-23-2018, 09:41 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 06:01 AM)Achilles Wrote: [ -> ]We could have an injury 3 games into the season that makes the decision easier.

I think the main thing to remember here is that Fowler is an ascending productive pass rusher that's only 23 years old....we shouldn't let him walk for a productive lineman that's reaching the downside of their careers.

 I ABSOLUTELY LOVE Calais Campbell. I think his presence changed the culture and he had an amazing season last year, but he is almost 9 years older than Dante.... Let's see how he looks this year. Let's see how everyone looks and make the tough decisions after the season. 

If we trade Fowler now for a third rounder and he shines somewhere else and one of our guys gets injured or falls of a cliff production-wise, this whole board will be losing it.

I don't think this is a decision that needs to be made now at all.

The decision as to whether or not to extend his contract into 2019 must be made by May 2nd. That's 9 days from now. 

Of course even if management plans to keep him they could opt to not extend his contract and try to negotiate a deal after this season when he becomes a free agent.

I'm firmly in the yes, extend him, camp.

But that decision can always be negated next year. Just because we pick up the option, doesn't mean he has to play on it, or that we even need to keep him. 

And let's not talk the "what if he gets injured" nonsense. You can't live with that fear

It may have been mentioned earlier and/or discussed as nauseum but maybe the reason Fowler’s option hasn’t been picked up yet is he is potential trade bait for moving up this year to pick a QB in the first round? A young DE like himself would garner a lot of value. Just a thought

Stockpile pass rushers they'll figure out the money. Pass rushers are had to find and Campbell's not getting younger.

(04-23-2018, 11:09 AM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ]It may have been mentioned earlier and/or discussed as nauseum but maybe the reason Fowler’s option hasn’t been picked up yet is he is potential trade bait for moving up this year to pick a QB in the first round? A young DE like himself would garner a lot of value. Just a thought

There's zero chance we're going to trade up for a qb in the first

(04-23-2018, 12:43 PM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 11:09 AM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ]It may have been mentioned earlier and/or discussed as nauseum but maybe the reason Fowler’s option hasn’t been picked up yet is he is potential trade bait for moving up this year to pick a QB in the first round? A young DE like himself would garner a lot of value. Just a thought

There's zero chance we're going to trade up for a qb in the first

Highly unlikely, yes. Zero chance? I wouldn't be so sure

(04-23-2018, 12:51 PM)JNev Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 12:43 PM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]There's zero chance we're going to trade up for a qb in the first

Highly unlikely, yes. Zero chance? I wouldn't be so sure

I'm positive its zero lol

(04-23-2018, 12:43 PM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 11:09 AM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ]It may have been mentioned earlier and/or discussed as nauseum but maybe the reason Fowler’s option hasn’t been picked up yet is he is potential trade bait for moving up this year to pick a QB in the first round? A young DE like himself would garner a lot of value. Just a thought

There's zero chance we're going to trade up for a qb in the first

You can’t rule out anything really. I’m not saying it will happen, but again a young DE coming off a good season would command some serious returns. You never know.

(04-23-2018, 09:51 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 09:41 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]The decision as to whether or not to extend his contract into 2019 must be made by May 2nd. That's 9 days from now. 

Of course even if management plans to keep him they could opt to not extend his contract and try to negotiate a deal after this season when he becomes a free agent.

I'm firmly in the yes, extend him, camp.

But that decision can always be negated next year. Just because we pick up the option, doesn't mean he has to play on it, or that we even need to keep him. 

And let's not talk the "what if he gets injured" nonsense. You can't live with that fear

Good point. That's another argument in favor of the Jags picking up the option.

(04-23-2018, 08:53 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 09:51 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]But that decision can always be negated next year. Just because we pick up the option, doesn't mean he has to play on it, or that we even need to keep him. 

And let's not talk the "what if he gets injured" nonsense. You can't live with that fear

Good point. That's another argument in favor of the Jags picking up the option.

I think that settles it. If he can't be traded to move up in the draft, we will see them exercise the option.

Question: If one of the possible goals of the team is to trade Fowler, either straight up for a pick, or to be used in a package deal to move up, does the team not agreeing to his 5th year option hurt his value/perception of said value?

We gotta keep him, Calais surely only has 1 more year at the top of his game

(04-23-2018, 11:50 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Question:  If one of the possible goals of the team is to trade Fowler, either straight up for a pick, or to be used in a package deal to move up, does the team not agreeing to his 5th year option hurt his value/perception of said value?

Sort of depends on who you trade him to and their cap, but yes, w/o the option in place it negatively impacts value to the other team acquiring him.

(04-24-2018, 11:50 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-23-2018, 11:50 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Question:  If one of the possible goals of the team is to trade Fowler, either straight up for a pick, or to be used in a package deal to move up, does the team not agreeing to his 5th year option hurt his value/perception of said value?

Sort of depends on who you trade him to and their cap, but yes, w/o the option in place it negatively impacts value to the other team acquiring him.

So the only reason they have not exercised the option is if they find a DE to replace him in the draft?