Allen Robinson might be expecting to get top-dollar, as the number one receiver on the free agent market, but what can Aaron Colvin expect?
He’s likely to go into a market which has already seen trades for Talib and Peters.
Now he is likely to join Trumaine Johnson, Richard Sherman, Kyle Fuller, Malcolm Butler, Morris Claiborne, Brent Grimes,Patrick Robinson, EJ Gaines and Bashaud Breeland.
If he’s hoping to get a big deal, could he be disappointed?
And what might he expect to get?
Whats a good number for corners maybe he ends in the 8-10mil range no clue really.
Nickleback, or 3rd corner, plays about 65% of the snaps. Given his role on our team, and the way he fits our defense, it seems like he's worth more to us than he would be to someone else, but unfortunately, there are always going to be talent-starved teams who throw money at players (like we did for a couple of years).
What's he worth on the open market? I'd say some team with a dearth of talent and a surplus of cap space will throw him a contract for 5 years, $50 million. But of course that is pure speculation. That's above what we can pay him.
(03-10-2018, 08:57 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Nickleback, or 3rd corner, plays about 65% of the snaps. Given his role on our team, and the way he fits our defense, it seems like he's worth more to us than he would be to someone else, but unfortunately, there are always going to be talent-starved teams who throw money at players (like we did for a couple of years).
What's he worth on the open market? I'd say some team with a dearth of talent and a surplus of cap space will throw him a contract for 5 years, $50 million. But of course that is pure speculation. That's above what we can pay him.
What's he worth and what's he going to receive are totally different. As far as his actual value he's probably worth about five or six million a season as a decent slot corner that does a good job making tackles but who almost never makes a play for the ball.
In the open market I expect he probably get more like seven or eight million a year.
For the Jaguars to sign him I'd want it to be a 20-30 million dollar contact for four or five years with less than ten million in guarantees. I expect he'll get more like 30-40 with about 15 guaranteed.
I could see him going to the Seahawks
If Colvin hits the open market someone is going to throw a bunch of money at him. Maybe not CB1 type money but way more than we're willing to pay.
I'd say he gets 9/10 million on the open market.
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(03-10-2018, 09:33 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 08:57 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Nickleback, or 3rd corner, plays about 65% of the snaps. Given his role on our team, and the way he fits our defense, it seems like he's worth more to us than he would be to someone else, but unfortunately, there are always going to be talent-starved teams who throw money at players (like we did for a couple of years).
What's he worth on the open market? I'd say some team with a dearth of talent and a surplus of cap space will throw him a contract for 5 years, $50 million. But of course that is pure speculation. That's above what we can pay him.
What's he worth and what's he going to receive are totally different. As far as his actual value he's probably worth about five or six million a season as a decent slot corner that does a good job making tackles but who almost never makes a play for the ball.
In the open market I expect he probably get more like seven or eight million a year.
For the Jaguars to sign him I'd want it to be a 20-30 million dollar contact for four or five years with less than ten million in guarantees. I expect he'll get more like 30-40 with about 15 guaranteed.
^This
I hope the Jags will be able to work out a deal for Colvin, even if it means "overpaying" him a little. The team did save some money by not signing Robinson and this would be a good place to utilize that savings. The secondary is, by far, the strength of this team. Imagine what they can do next year now that they have one entire year playing together. Many of the sacks happened due to the coverage in the secondary. I expect Fowler and Jack to keep improving which should make the defense truly elite for the next couple of years, at least. They really have little need to sign extremely high-priced free agents like Norwell when they can draft a lineman like Price, Ragnow, Williams or Daniels in the 2nd round and another in the 6th. My free agency list would look like this:
1. Re-sign Colvin
2. Re-sign Omameh unless he gets crazy offer from another team
3. Re-sign Poz for a team-friendly amount.
4.Sign Trey Burton
5. Sign a 2nd tier wide receiver like Paul Richardson or Taylor Gabriel.
These moves would not set the team back much with respect to the salary cap. They can then draft an interior lineman, tight end, wide-receiver and back-up quarterback in rounds 1-4. The team would then begin next season with upgrades at tight end (significant), offensive line and hopefully back-up q.b. The only position which gets worse is wide-receiver due to losing AROB and possibly Lee. However, if they sign the right free-agent at this position and draft someone like D.J. Moore or Sutton in the first round or possibly wait til rounds 3 or 4 to get possible steals like Michael Gallup (great name) or bigger targets like Simmie Cobbs or Allen Lazard the drop-off at this position will not be so great.
I really think Caldwell/Coughlin will approach free-agency like this which will allow them to continue to win with an elite defense for the next 2-3 years and have enough salary cap money to keep their best young players like Ramsay, Jack and Yannick for a long time.
I'm thinking we might offer him something like $9 mil per. My fear is that someone might want to gamble on him with something like a $12 mil per contract to start outside.
(03-10-2018, 11:52 AM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking we might offer him something like $9 mil per. My fear is that someone might want to gamble on him with something like a $12 mil per contract to start outside.
That would be a ridiculous number for him. Almost Bouye price at 12. If the Jaguars pay him 9 million a year they're doing it wrong. Arob at franchise tag price made more sense than Colvin at 7 million a year, much less 9 a year.
(03-10-2018, 12:06 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 11:52 AM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking we might offer him something like $9 mil per. My fear is that someone might want to gamble on him with something like a $12 mil per contract to start outside.
That would be a ridiculous number for him. Almost Bouye price at 12. If the Jaguars pay him 9 million a year they're doing it wrong. Arob at franchise tag price made more sense than Colvin at 7 million a year, much less 9 a year.
I could see the Broncos paying him 9 mil a year.
(03-10-2018, 12:06 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 11:52 AM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking we might offer him something like $9 mil per. My fear is that someone might want to gamble on him with something like a $12 mil per contract to start outside.
That would be a ridiculous number for him. Almost Bouye price at 12. If the Jaguars pay him 9 million a year they're doing it wrong. Arob at franchise tag price made more sense than Colvin at 7 million a year, much less 9 a year.
That's simply the market for CBs. Starting outside CBs are getting $11 to $14 mil. The elite guys are getting $20 mil. Good nickelbacks are getting $8 to $10 mil. If they can get Colvin for $7 mil per, that would be a huge deal for the Jaguars. He's does his job.
The reason I bought up all those names at the start was because I wonder if the plentiful supply of cornerbacks available in free agency might force his price down.
If he is holding out for 12, but another, similar, CB is prepared to accept less, he might find he has to lower his demands...
But on the other hand there are a lot of teams out there and a lot of cash washing about. Maybe they’ll all get paid.
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(03-10-2018, 04:34 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 12:06 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]That would be a ridiculous number for him. Almost Bouye price at 12. If the Jaguars pay him 9 million a year they're doing it wrong. Arob at franchise tag price made more sense than Colvin at 7 million a year, much less 9 a year.
That's simply the market for CBs. Starting outside CBs are getting $11 to $14 mil. The elite guys are getting $20 mil. Good nickelbacks are getting $8 to $10 mil. If they can get Colvin for $7 mil per, that would be a huge deal for the Jaguars. He's does his job.
Yep 7 is about the max I'd pay for Colvin. Maybe 8 with a favourable structure.
(03-10-2018, 04:46 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 04:34 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]
That's simply the market for CBs. Starting outside CBs are getting $11 to $14 mil. The elite guys are getting $20 mil. Good nickelbacks are getting $8 to $10 mil. If they can get Colvin for $7 mil per, that would be a huge deal for the Jaguars. He's does his job.
Yep 7 is about the max I'd pay for Colvin. Maybe 8 with a favourable structure.
I can see getting only $8 mil because he doesn't have the INTs on his resume.
(03-10-2018, 04:53 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 04:46 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Yep 7 is about the max I'd pay for Colvin. Maybe 8 with a favourable structure.
I can see getting only $8 mil because he doesn't have the INTs on his resume.
I think teams will value his efficiency stats over his INTs.
(03-10-2018, 05:02 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 04:53 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]I can see getting only $8 mil because he doesn't have the INTs on his resume.
I think teams will value his efficiency stats over his INTs.
...which is why he's getting at least $8 mil.
(03-10-2018, 08:27 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-10-2018, 05:02 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]I think teams will value his efficiency stats over his INTs.
...which is why he's getting at least $8 mil.
Oh I thought you were saying you don't think he will get more than 8 due to his low INTs.