As the availability of certain QBs is likely to be a talking-point for us, maybe we should consider which teams are likely to take one in the first round, which ones might and which won’t.
I’d rank them like this... (this is just for teams likely to use a valuable first round pick on the position)
LIKELY TO PICK A QB
Browns
Jets
Bills
Cardinals
MIGHT PICK A QB
Broncos
Giants
Dolphins
PROBABLY WONT PICK A QB
Colts
Texans
Titans
Packers
Vikings
Bears
Lions
Cowboys
Eagles
Redskins
Chiefs
Raiders
Seahawks
49ers
Rams
Panthers
Falcons
Buccaneers
And then there are a few, probably including the Jaguars, which could also look for a QB, if the right one is available (mainly to groom as replacements for ageing players)
Chargers
Steelers
Saints
Ravens
Patriots
Bengals
I've been meaning to go through this exercise myself. Nice work!
Next step is put them in draft order in the first and maybe second rounds. I might do that in a spreadsheet and post it at some point, unless you beat me to it.
Nice 1st round breakdown by Lance Zierlein.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000...every-team
First 3 picks are likely QBs. Barring a trade up, the next QB off the board might come at 11 and/or 12 to the Dolphins and Bills.
As far as the Jags are concerned, if the draft gets to pick 10 with only 3 QBs off the board that might be one spot they'd consider trading up for if they like a guy enough. It's a very similar jump to what KC did last year to get Mahomes at 10 from 27. Though Mahomes was the 2nd QB off the board at that point, not the 4th. However, in retrospect you could say that a couple of teams that needed QBs last year ahead of 10 passed on him so maybe the 3rd QB doesn't come off the board by the 3rd pick.
The Chiefs ended up giving up pick 27 (we're picking 29th this year) and a third rounder last year and also gave up this year's first rounder to make the jump. A Jags jump would likely involve similar compensation. Not a fan of giving up future firsts, but if you land your next starting QB you'd have to say it was worth it and having your QB of the future operate on his rookie deal for 4 to 5 years goes a long way to keeping as many other pieces as possible when it comes to re-signing guys in a couple of years. I'll trust their evaluations for now, whatever they may be, as Caldwell has done a better than average job with his picks.
All good points
For us, it depends on trades I think.
Pretty sure two QBs will go in the top 10 - to the Browns and the Jets.
But if the Giants and Broncos decide not to go for a QB then there are no other teams in the top 10 likely to pick one (the others are the Colts, Bucs, Bears, 49ers and Raiders)
So if everyone stays put, there could be two of the “top four” still on the board at 10 and a good chance for us to trade up.
Unfortunately we’d probably see other teams also wanting to trade up, like the Dolphins and the Bills and they might have more to offer in a bidding-war.
And while a trade up to 10 might be just about possible, a trade inside the top-10 might be asking too much...
Minimum of 3 QBs in the top 5 this year.
Likely 6 in the first round 2.
(03-18-2018, 06:18 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Minimum of 3 QBs in the top 5 this year.
Likely 6 in the first round 2.
That does seem to be the expectation.
One way or another, three will go early.
It’s where the final three fall in the first round that will be interesting though... and it could be an interesting draft day to watch for that reason.
(03-19-2018, 07:49 AM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2018, 06:18 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Minimum of 3 QBs in the top 5 this year.
Likely 6 in the first round 2.
That does seem to be the expectation.
One way or another, three will go early.
It’s where the final three fall in the first round that will be interesting though... and it could be an interesting draft day to watch for that reason.
I tend to think there is gonna be a handful of teams that value Lamar Jackson correctly and take him in the top 15/20. Then desperation will result in Rudolph getting taken quite soon after.
Also think some team will sell themselves on Josh Allen in the top 20.
In other words, I'd be surprised if any of those guys make it #29. Personally I value Lauletta over Allen but taking him in the 1st isn't what I would do.
I see the Jaguars trading up to #2, giving up the #29, and next 3 years #1's, to draft Josh Rosen.
(03-19-2018, 09:36 AM)Jagsfan32277 Wrote: [ -> ]I see the Jaguars trading up to #2, giving up the #29, and next 3 years #1's, to draft Josh Rosen.
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
(03-19-2018, 09:36 AM)Jagsfan32277 Wrote: [ -> ]I see the Jaguars trading up to #2, giving up the #29, and next 3 years #1's, to draft Josh Rosen.
That trade would certainly get the attention of everyone following the NFL. Of course, there's no way that will happen. Not sure I would have made that trade for Andrew Luck when he came out or even Peyton Manning. Rosen is far from a sure-shot.
I don't see us moving up that high to land a rookie QB. Just seems like a lateral move. If they were truly interested in upgrading the QB position they would have went after Cousins, Keenum, Brees, etc. I don't recall them having any interest. Which I am fine with. I don't want them to jeopardize the continuity and confidence they've already been able to establish with Bortles. And I honestly don't think Cousins or Keenum were going to offer a whole lot more than what we already have. Brees getting out NOLA was slim to none as well.
If they do trade up from 29th overall. I would see them making a play between the 15th - 22nd range. And it's more than likely to land either Roquan Smith at OLB, Derwin James at S or Calvin Ridley at WR. Any of those three that somehow fall for a variety of reasons (non off the field or character concern related of course) makes a lot of sense for them to come up and grab. They all fit needs or roles the team could need.
Smith fills the loss of Poszlusny. He's another great athlete that plays sideline to sideline. Pairing him up with Telvin and Myles is scary.
James offers yet another freakish athlete to the secondary. He can roam and come up to play inside the box. Church and Gipson have been good. But James has that rare ability that may make him a Jalen Ramsey type player at his position.
Ridley could come in and make a push for anyone's job on this roster at WR right now. The fact that they let Robinson walk, but were rumored to be interested in Watkins, and yet, managed to maintain Lee should tell you that they're at least looking for upgrades that fit their offensive formula.
(03-19-2018, 01:20 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see us moving up that high to land a rookie QB. Just seems like a lateral move. If they were truly interested in upgrading the QB position they would have went after Cousins, Keenum, Brees, etc. I don't recall them having any interest. Which I am fine with. I don't want them to jeopardize the continuity and confidence they've already been able to establish with Bortles. And I honestly don't think Cousins or Keenum were going to offer a whole lot more than what we already have. Brees getting out NOLA was slim to none as well.
If they do trade up from 29th overall. I would see them making a play between the 15th - 22nd range. And it's more than likely to land either Roquan Smith at OLB, Derwin James at S or Calvin Ridley at WR. Any of those three that somehow fall for a variety of reasons (non off the field or character concern related of course) makes a lot of sense for them to come up and grab. They all fit needs or roles the team could need.
Smith fills the loss of Poszlusny. He's another great athlete that plays sideline to sideline. Pairing him up with Telvin and Myles is scary.
James offers yet another freakish athlete to the secondary. He can roam and come up to play inside the box. Church and Gipson have been good. But James has that rare ability that may make him a Jalen Ramsey type player at his position.
Ridley could come in and make a push for anyone's job on this roster at WR right now. The fact that they let Robinson walk, but were rumored to be interested in Watkins, and yet, managed to maintain Lee should tell you that they're at least looking for upgrades that fit their offensive formula.
If they can somehow land James or Smith, I would pass out. The defense would be darn near perfect.
But to answer the initial question, every move they have made seems to lead toward a QB. It was really clear in the previous years that Fournette, Ramsey and Fowler were the picks based on FA. This year, it's set up to be a QB. Which one? Most likely Rudolph.
(03-19-2018, 02:04 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (03-19-2018, 01:20 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see us moving up that high to land a rookie QB. Just seems like a lateral move. If they were truly interested in upgrading the QB position they would have went after Cousins, Keenum, Brees, etc. I don't recall them having any interest. Which I am fine with. I don't want them to jeopardize the continuity and confidence they've already been able to establish with Bortles. And I honestly don't think Cousins or Keenum were going to offer a whole lot more than what we already have. Brees getting out NOLA was slim to none as well.
If they do trade up from 29th overall. I would see them making a play between the 15th - 22nd range. And it's more than likely to land either Roquan Smith at OLB, Derwin James at S or Calvin Ridley at WR. Any of those three that somehow fall for a variety of reasons (non off the field or character concern related of course) makes a lot of sense for them to come up and grab. They all fit needs or roles the team could need.
Smith fills the loss of Poszlusny. He's another great athlete that plays sideline to sideline. Pairing him up with Telvin and Myles is scary.
James offers yet another freakish athlete to the secondary. He can roam and come up to play inside the box. Church and Gipson have been good. But James has that rare ability that may make him a Jalen Ramsey type player at his position.
Ridley could come in and make a push for anyone's job on this roster at WR right now. The fact that they let Robinson walk, but were rumored to be interested in Watkins, and yet, managed to maintain Lee should tell you that they're at least looking for upgrades that fit their offensive formula.
If they can somehow land James or Smith, I would pass out. The defense would be darn near perfect.
But to answer the initial question, every move they have made seems to lead toward a QB. It was really clear in the previous years that Fournette, Ramsey and Fowler were the picks based on FA. This year, it's set up to be a QB. Which one? Most likely Rudolph.
Coughlin does like the prototypical size/style QBs like Rudolph.
However, Jackson could appeal to them if they liked the type of play they saw in Houston with Deshaun Watson, and want to incorporate some of that themselves.
I don't like the prospects of any of the other QBs in this draft (assuming those are the only two in play for us.)
IMO, the Bills need to make a major trade up to at least get ahead of the Dolphins or else they might miss out on getting one of the top 4 elite QB's in this draft. I see no possible way they stand at #12. They have to currently be in negotiations to trade up. If not, they may lose out on a major opportunity. It's conceivable that they could go into camp with McCarron, Peterman and some project QB like Jackson, White or Falk as their only options, if they don't trade up.
(03-20-2018, 04:25 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]IMO, the Bills need to make a major trade up to at least get ahead of the Dolphins or else they might miss out on getting one of the top 4 elite QB's in this draft. I see no possible way they stand at #12. They have to currently be in negotiations to trade up. If not, they may lose out on a major opportunity. It's conceivable that they could go into camp with McCarron, Peterman and some project QB like Jackson, White or Falk as their only options, if they don't trade up.
Nah man, they'll just settle and draft what's left, Rudolph or Lamar and Arizona will draft what's left of those 2. That leaves the Jaguars with one of the garbage tier QBs as the backup.
(03-20-2018, 05:05 PM)Jagsfan32277 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2018, 04:25 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]IMO, the Bills need to make a major trade up to at least get ahead of the Dolphins or else they might miss out on getting one of the top 4 elite QB's in this draft. I see no possible way they stand at #12. They have to currently be in negotiations to trade up. If not, they may lose out on a major opportunity. It's conceivable that they could go into camp with McCarron, Peterman and some project QB like Jackson, White or Falk as their only options, if they don't trade up.
Nah man, they'll just settle and draft what's left, Rudolph or Lamar and Arizona will draft what's left of those 2. That leaves the Jaguars with one of the garbage tier QBs as the backup.
You must live a pretty miserable existence.