Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(03-20-2018, 02:19 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:16 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I submit Coles is field fast, not necessarily stopwatch fast.

He got deep all preseason and then when he adjusted to the pro game, got deep regularly throughout the regular season.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...leKe00.htm

I see nothing about a 17.8 YPC that resembles a possession receiver.

I agree.  

Regarding Cole at X vs Z, however, our prior dialogue is the deciding factor. The Z is allowed to line up off the line and "get a step" on the defender should he press at the line. 

Still - Cole was used at the X some in 2017 and to some success. I expect he'll get some looks there (if limited)  - especially if he improves beating the jam.

I agree a viable strategy for him might be to use him at Z until he can consistently beat the jam at the LOS.

But to continue my point about him being more of a deep threat than a possession receiver, he had long catches of:

52 yards against the Colts
28 yards against the Bengals
36 yards against the Chargers
24 yards against the Cardinals
32 yards against the Colts
75 yards against the Seahawks
73 yards against the Texans
32 yards against the 49ers
45 yards against the Steelers in the playoff game
26 yards against the Patriots in the AFC title game

In most of those games, the catch represented the long reception for the game for the team.

(03-20-2018, 02:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:19 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I agree.  

Regarding Cole at X vs Z, however, our prior dialogue is the deciding factor. The Z is allowed to line up off the line and "get a step" on the defender should he press at the line. 

Still - Cole was used at the X some in 2017 and to some success. I expect he'll get some looks there (if limited)  - especially if he improves beating the jam.

I agree a viable strategy for him might be to use him at Z until he can consistently beat the jam at the LOS.

But to continue my point about him being more of a deep threat than a possession receiver, he had long catches of:

52 yards against the Colts
28 yards against the Bengals
36 yards against the Chargers
24 yards against the Cardinals
32 yards against the Colts
75 yards against the Seahawks
73 yards against the Texans
32 yards against the 49ers
45 yards against the Steelers in the playoff game
26 yards against the Patriots in the AFC title game

In most of those games, the catch represented the long reception for the game for the team.

I know it’s easy to play with statistics, but if you take out one of those big 79-yarders, his overall figures take a big dip.

I think that while his first year’s production is encouraging, it’s far too small a sample to project from.

What happens, for instance, if Moncrief becomes the preferred option for those long hoofs downfield?

Who knows though, he’s not done much wrong so far...

---

(03-20-2018, 02:58 PM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I agree a viable strategy for him might be to use him at Z until he can consistently beat the jam at the LOS.

But to continue my point about him being more of a deep threat than a possession receiver, he had long catches of:

52 yards against the Colts
28 yards against the Bengals
36 yards against the Chargers
24 yards against the Cardinals
32 yards against the Colts
75 yards against the Seahawks
73 yards against the Texans
32 yards against the 49ers
45 yards against the Steelers in the playoff game
26 yards against the Patriots in the AFC title game

In most of those games, the catch represented the long reception for the game for the team.

I know it’s easy to play with statistics, but if you take out one of those big 70-yarders, his overall figures take a big dip.

I think that while his first year’s production is encouraging, it’s far too small a sample to project from.

What happens, for instance, if Moncrief becomes the preferred option for those long hoofs downfield?

Who knows though, he’s not done much wrong so far...

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(03-20-2018, 02:58 PM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I agree a viable strategy for him might be to use him at Z until he can consistently beat the jam at the LOS.

But to continue my point about him being more of a deep threat than a possession receiver, he had long catches of:

52 yards against the Colts
28 yards against the Bengals
36 yards against the Chargers
24 yards against the Cardinals
32 yards against the Colts
75 yards against the Seahawks
73 yards against the Texans
32 yards against the 49ers
45 yards against the Steelers in the playoff game
26 yards against the Patriots in the AFC title game

In most of those games, the catch represented the long reception for the game for the team.

I know it’s easy to play with statistics, but if you take out one of those big 79-yarders, his overall figures take a big dip.

I think that while his first year’s production is encouraging, it’s far too small a sample to project from.

What happens, for instance, if Moncrief becomes the preferred option for those long hoofs downfield?  

Who knows though, he’s not done much wrong so far...

---

Phrased in a different context, "So Mrs. Lincoln, aside from the cap busted in your husband's dome, how did you enjoy the play?"

Those 70 yard completions are pretty much the point.

His status as a future #1 overall receiver is far from cemented, but those 700+ yards in what amounts to a half season is impressive, small sample size or not.

(03-20-2018, 02:58 PM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I agree a viable strategy for him might be to use him at Z until he can consistently beat the jam at the LOS.

But to continue my point about him being more of a deep threat than a possession receiver, he had long catches of:

52 yards against the Colts
28 yards against the Bengals
36 yards against the Chargers
24 yards against the Cardinals
32 yards against the Colts
75 yards against the Seahawks
73 yards against the Texans
32 yards against the 49ers
45 yards against the Steelers in the playoff game
26 yards against the Patriots in the AFC title game

In most of those games, the catch represented the long reception for the game for the team.

---

(03-20-2018, 02:58 PM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]I know it’s easy to play with statistics, but if you take out one of those big 70-yarders, his overall figures take a big dip.

I think that while his first year’s production is encouraging, it’s far too small a sample to project from.

What happens, for instance, if Moncrief becomes the preferred option for those long hoofs downfield?  

Who knows though, he’s not done much wrong so far...

Having multiple viable downfield options is a good thing and it's a big reason they've signed Moncrief.  What it does to Cole's stat-line is irrelevant to the success of the overall offense. 

I can't wait to see various combos of Lee/Cole/Moncreif/Westbrook going vertical in play action. 
Guys are going to get open deep.

Yes Cole has the potential to be a number 1.

(03-20-2018, 02:19 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:16 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I submit Coles is field fast, not necessarily stopwatch fast.

He got deep all preseason and then when he adjusted to the pro game, got deep regularly throughout the regular season.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...leKe00.htm

I see nothing about a 17.8 YPC that resembles a possession receiver.

I agree.  

Regarding Cole at X vs Z, however, our prior dialogue is the deciding factor. The Z is allowed to line up off the line and "get a step" on the defender should he press at the line. 

Still - Cole was used at the X some in 2017 and to some success. I expect he'll get some looks there (if limited)  - especially if he improves beating the jam.

Cole did a lot of damage in the slot last year as well

Meh, I think this group CAN be good, but will it develop? There are some serious ? marks going forward.

I am not too thrilled about the group as it stands. I think it would've been a better move to skip on Moncrief and keep Hurns. I hope I am wrong though, and Cole/Westbrook/Lee and Moncfrief ball out and we have a lights out offense.

(03-20-2018, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:58 PM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]I know it’s easy to play with statistics, but if you take out one of those big 79-yarders, his overall figures take a big dip.

I think that while his first year’s production is encouraging, it’s far too small a sample to project from.

What happens, for instance, if Moncrief becomes the preferred option for those long hoofs downfield?  

Who knows though, he’s not done much wrong so far...

---

Phrased in a different context, "So Mrs. Lincoln, aside from the cap busted in your husband's dome, how did you enjoy the play?"

Those 70 yard completions are pretty much the point.

His status as a future #1 overall receiver is far from cemented, but those 700+ yards in what amounts to a half season is impressive, small sample size or not.

Yes, I think we are agreeing that the same stats can be viewed in very different ways.

And yes, 700+ yards in half a season looks very good on paper (as I said he’s not done much wrong, so far).

But the point I’m trying to make (and I think you agree) is that it’s not really possible to make meaningful projections from 42 career catches.

Looking at it another way, Keelan caught 51% of the passes thrown to him.

Dede Westbrook caught 53% of his passes (again, small numbers).

So far in Marqise Lee’s career, he has caught 57% and Donte Moncrief 59%.

In his rookie year Lee had a 54% catch-rate and Moncrief 65%.

Would you look at those figures and conclude Cole will be less reliable than the other two? That he can’t be a number 1 WR?

I think that would also be a difficult assumption to make.

You could equally look at their yards per catch and say Cole gets a lot more yard per reception – but again it’s based on a relatively small sample size, so projections aren’t really that meaningful.

I’m sure somebody can reply to this post with their own take on the figures…

But the reality is that in the relatively small sample size we have for Keelan Cole, all we can say with any real certainty is he’s caught a good number of long passes.

If he can continue to do that, then we will have a superstar on our hands.

And I’d hope they use him more next season.

I hope he will develop into a key receiver for us.

He could even be a number one WR for us.

But I’m not going to expect too much from him at this stage (or worry if his stats drop a little in his second season).

Let’s see how his second season goes…


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(03-21-2018, 06:46 AM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Phrased in a different context, "So Mrs. Lincoln, aside from the cap busted in your husband's dome, how did you enjoy the play?"

Those 70 yard completions are pretty much the point.

His status as a future #1 overall receiver is far from cemented, but those 700+ yards in what amounts to a half season is impressive, small sample size or not.

Yes, I think we are agreeing that the same stats can be viewed in very different ways.

And yes, 700+ yards in half a season looks very good on paper (as I said he’s not done much wrong, so far).

But the point I’m trying to make (and I think you agree) is that it’s not really possible to make meaningful projections from 42 career catches.

Looking at it another way, Keelan caught 51% of the passes thrown to him.

Dede Westbrook caught 53% of his passes (again, small numbers).

So far in Marqise Lee’s career, he has caught 57% and Donte Moncrief 59%.

In his rookie year Lee had a 54% catch-rate and Moncrief 65%.

Would you look at those figures and conclude Cole will be less reliable than the other two?  That he can’t be a number 1 WR?

I think that would also be a difficult assumption to make.

You could equally look at their yards per catch and say Cole gets a lot more yard per reception – but again it’s based on a relatively small sample size, so projections aren’t really that meaningful.

I’m sure somebody can reply to this post with their own take on the figures…

But the reality is that in the relatively small sample size we have for Keelan Cole, all we can say with any real certainty is he’s caught a good number of long passes.

If he can continue to do that, then we will have a superstar on our hands.

And I’d hope they use him more next season.

I hope he will develop into a key receiver for us.

He could even be a number one WR for us.

But I’m not going to expect too much from him at this stage (or worry if his stats drop a little in his second season).

Let’s see how his second season goes…


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My only point in bringing up those stats are to show he can get deep...that he has some explosiveness to his game.  A high YPC average tends to be an indicia of explosiveness.

I did not offer those stats to show that his game is somehow complete, or that he is Jerry Rice 2.0.

Throughout this thread and the other thread I cited, I've indicated there are parts to his game he has to improve in order for him to reach his potential.

Apologies if I mistakenly gave that impression.

The way Cole took over the preseason reminded me of Victor Cruz when he balled out to make the Giants roster... fast forward a year later and he's taking the league by storm! I think Cole has the potential to be real special. 6'2" and is much faster than the unofficial 40 time from his pro day. He also has decent hands and makes circus catches at times. Now that the rookie nerves are off the skys the limit. I'm predicting a 1000 yard season with 4 TD's this year.

(03-20-2018, 02:16 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2018, 02:13 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]
Cole doesn't get all that much separation typically coming down with tough catches over the middle. He strikes me as a possession receiver who should do just fine in a flanker-type role. At split-end it's suddenly important to have all the factors like size and speed to beat the league's top CBs. Moncrief is our tallest receiver, has blazing speed, and has been working in this very role all along. Lee at least has some top-end speed to make things interesting although he too is a bit small. I love Cole because he's clutch, but his measureables aren't quite there. He's measures just under 6' 1", and at his pro day he ran the 40 in about 4.6 flat. Really what the Jaguars can use at WR is someone like Courtland Sutton who has the size you want and can run.

I submit Coles is field fast, not necessarily stopwatch fast.

He got deep all preseason and then when he adjusted to the pro game, got deep regularly throughout the regular season.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...leKe00.htm

I see nothing about a 17.8 YPC that resembles a possession receiver.

Exactly!

(03-21-2018, 08:17 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2018, 06:46 AM)Andy G Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, I think we are agreeing that the same stats can be viewed in very different ways.

And yes, 700+ yards in half a season looks very good on paper (as I said he’s not done much wrong, so far).

But the point I’m trying to make (and I think you agree) is that it’s not really possible to make meaningful projections from 42 career catches.

Looking at it another way, Keelan caught 51% of the passes thrown to him.

Dede Westbrook caught 53% of his passes (again, small numbers).

So far in Marqise Lee’s career, he has caught 57% and Donte Moncrief 59%.

In his rookie year Lee had a 54% catch-rate and Moncrief 65%.

Would you look at those figures and conclude Cole will be less reliable than the other two?  That he can’t be a number 1 WR?

I think that would also be a difficult assumption to make.

You could equally look at their yards per catch and say Cole gets a lot more yard per reception – but again it’s based on a relatively small sample size, so projections aren’t really that meaningful.

I’m sure somebody can reply to this post with their own take on the figures…

But the reality is that in the relatively small sample size we have for Keelan Cole, all we can say with any real certainty is he’s caught a good number of long passes.

If he can continue to do that, then we will have a superstar on our hands.

And I’d hope they use him more next season.

I hope he will develop into a key receiver for us.

He could even be a number one WR for us.

But I’m not going to expect too much from him at this stage (or worry if his stats drop a little in his second season).

Let’s see how his second season goes…


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My only point in bringing up those stats are to show he can get deep...that he has some explosiveness to his game.  A high YPC average tends to be an indicia of explosiveness.

I did not offer those stats to show that his game is somehow complete, or that he is Jerry Rice 2.0.

Throughout this thread and the other thread I cited, I've indicated there are parts to his game he has to improve in order for him to reach his potential.

Apologies if I mistakenly gave that impression.

Understood, and like I say, I think we probably agree on how we see him - he’s an exciting young talent.