Here is a study of draft pick success rate, by position and by round, using draft picks from 2005 to 2014. The criterion is, does the pick become a solid starter.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
=====quote======
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
=======end quote==========
From looking at this, since we are in win-now mode and since we want to focus on the running game, I'd pick an offensive lineman in the first round if there is one that merits the pick.
I wouldn't bother with a QB after the second round. It's a wasted pick.
(03-25-2018, 07:26 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Here is a study of draft pick success rate, by position and by round, using draft picks from 2005 to 2014. The criterion is, does the pick become a solid starter.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
=====quote======
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
=======end quote==========
From looking at this, since we are in win-now mode and since we want to focus on the running game, I'd pick an offensive lineman in the first round if there is one that merits the pick.
I wouldn't bother with a QB after the second round. It's a wasted pick.
Selecting a QB after the second round isn't a wasted pick.
You just have to remember that QBs drafted after the 2nd are generally always backup/developmental/flier QBs type QBs.
Though I would not allow the percentages to necessarily dictate my drafting, that chart is sobering.
First thought is just how remarkable a couple of Caldwell's classes have been.
Second thought is Will Hernandez is the one realistic option who can definitely improve this team instantly.
(03-25-2018, 10:32 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]First thought is just how remarkable a couple of Caldwell's classes have been.
Second thought is Will Hernandez is the one realistic option who can definitely improve this team instantly.
I agree on both thoughts.
Also noted that the years charted are 2005-2014. So the QB numbers after the first round do not reflect Carr, Prescott or Garoppolo.
(Garoppolo was indeed drafted in 2014 which was included - but he did not meet the "starter criterion" at the time these stats were gathered - and therefore would have been counted as an unsuccessful pick)
If teams just went based on solely success rates, no team would ever draft a QB, period. Even 63% isn't very good.
(03-25-2018, 10:32 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]First thought is just how remarkable a couple of Caldwell's classes have been.
Second thought is Will Hernandez is the one realistic option who can definitely improve this team instantly.
Caldwell has certainly defied the odds with a couple of his draft classes. Because of this, Jag fans need to have faith in his (and his scouting dept.) picks- even if they don't agree on draft day(s). He has earned that, despite also making some very poor decisions (extending Gus and drafting B.B.).
As far as Hernandez in the first round, this would be a solid and popular pick. There are other offensive linemen like Isaiah Wynn and Connor Williams who should also be considered. They offer more versatility than Hernandez in the sense they can play guard or tackle. Of course, the thought of having both Hernandez and Norwell opening up holes for Fournette is tantalizing.
Based on the statistics, a quarterback would have to be considered in round 1. If they really like the long-term prospects of Rudolph or Jackson, I wouldn't be shocked if one of those guys is the pick. The odds of a quarterback taken after round 1 being successful are frightening low. Second tier guys like White and Lauletta are likely to eventually prove to be wasted picks in the 3rd or 4th rounds.
(03-25-2018, 11:17 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 10:32 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]First thought is just how remarkable a couple of Caldwell's classes have been.
Second thought is Will Hernandez is the one realistic option who can definitely improve this team instantly.
Caldwell has certainly defied the odds with a couple of his draft classes. Because of this, Jag fans need to have faith in his (and his scouting dept.) picks- even if they don't agree on draft day(s). He has earned that, despite also making some very poor decisions (extending Gus and drafting B.B.).
As far as Hernandez in the first round, this would be a solid and popular pick. There are other offensive linemen like Isaiah Wynn and Connor Williams who should also be considered. They offer more versatility than Hernandez in the sense they can play guard or tackle. Of course, the thought of having both Hernandez and Norwell opening up holes for Fournette is tantalizing.
Based on the statistics, a quarterback would have to be considered in round 1. If they really like the long-term prospects of Rudolph or Jackson, I wouldn't be shocked if one of those guys is the pick. The odds of a quarterback taken after round 1 being successful are frightening low. Second tier guys like White and Lauletta are likely to eventually prove to be wasted picks in the 3rd or 4th rounds.
I think you're right, there's a good chance it'll be QB or Oline in the first.
I have a sneaky feeling they might be after Jackson. They may have a plan of exactly what our running-based offense should look like, with a QB heavily involved in that. Norwell's experience with Cam could be part of that. Obviously there's a whole lot of mights, mays and coulds in there. Nobody really knows.
(03-25-2018, 11:36 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 11:17 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]Caldwell has certainly defied the odds with a couple of his draft classes. Because of this, Jag fans need to have faith in his (and his scouting dept.) picks- even if they don't agree on draft day(s). He has earned that, despite also making some very poor decisions (extending Gus and drafting B.B.).
As far as Hernandez in the first round, this would be a solid and popular pick. There are other offensive linemen like Isaiah Wynn and Connor Williams who should also be considered. They offer more versatility than Hernandez in the sense they can play guard or tackle. Of course, the thought of having both Hernandez and Norwell opening up holes for Fournette is tantalizing.
Based on the statistics, a quarterback would have to be considered in round 1. If they really like the long-term prospects of Rudolph or Jackson, I wouldn't be shocked if one of those guys is the pick. The odds of a quarterback taken after round 1 being successful are frightening low. Second tier guys like White and Lauletta are likely to eventually prove to be wasted picks in the 3rd or 4th rounds.
I think you're right, there's a good chance it'll be QB or Oline in the first.
I have a sneaky feeling they might be after Jackson. They may have a plan of exactly what our running-based offense should look like, with a QB heavily involved in that. Norwell's experience with Cam could be part of that. Obviously there's a whole lot of mights, mays and coulds in there. Nobody really knows.
It doesn't makes sense, though, to me, for them to say, we're going to the Super Bowl with Blake, and at the same time, we're drafting a QB in the first round to replace Blake. That's why I think it is much more likely at pick #29 they will pick an offensive lineman rather than a QB. I mean, how can they "express confidence in our QB" and then turn right around and draft his replacement?
It appears the team has committed itself to the idea of building a talented team that can overcome average QB play. That tells me, they're not going to pick a QB in the first round. They're going to pick a guy who can start and really help the team win.
(03-25-2018, 12:12 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 11:36 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]I think you're right, there's a good chance it'll be QB or Oline in the first.
I have a sneaky feeling they might be after Jackson. They may have a plan of exactly what our running-based offense should look like, with a QB heavily involved in that. Norwell's experience with Cam could be part of that. Obviously there's a whole lot of mights, mays and coulds in there. Nobody really knows.
It doesn't makes sense, though, to me, for them to say, we're going to the Super Bowl with Blake, and at the same time, we're drafting a QB in the first round to replace Blake. That's why I think it is much more likely at pick #29 they will pick an offensive lineman rather than a QB. I mean, how can they "express confidence in our QB" and then turn right around and draft his replacement?
It appears the team has committed itself to the idea of building a talented team that can overcome average QB play. That tells me, they're not going to pick a QB in the first round. They're going to pick a guy who can start and really help the team win.
You're probably right. But... Teams say stuff all the time and then do the exact opposite. Especially in terms of expressing 'confidence' in players. We will see.
And if they did draft a QB in the first round you know they would still say "Blake is our QB, rookie won't play this year" etc etc.
(03-25-2018, 12:30 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]And if they did draft a QB in the first round you know they would still say "Blake is our QB, rookie won't play this year" etc etc.
The best thing about Blake's extension and moderately improved play in 2017 is that the Jaguars legitimately
can do exactly that and really mean it.
It gives them a somewhat rare opportunity to develop a fringe or raw QB prospect for a year (maybe two) while investments in the defense and run game keep them competitive despite the starting QB's inconsistencies.
(03-25-2018, 12:36 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 12:30 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]And if they did draft a QB in the first round you know they would still say "Blake is our QB, rookie won't play this year" etc etc.
The best thing about Blake's extension and moderately improved play in 2017 is that the Jaguars legitimately can do exactly that and really mean it.
It gives them a somewhat rare opportunity to develop a fringe or raw QB prospect for a year (maybe two) while investments in the defense and run game keep them competitive despite the starting QB's inconsistencies.
All true, but we all know how that usually plays out in the nfl... Blake has a few bad games and in goes the rookie
(03-25-2018, 02:11 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 12:36 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The best thing about Blake's extension and moderately improved play in 2017 is that the Jaguars legitimately can do exactly that and really mean it.
It gives them a somewhat rare opportunity to develop a fringe or raw QB prospect for a year (maybe two) while investments in the defense and run game keep them competitive despite the starting QB's inconsistencies.
All true, but we all know how that usually plays out in the nfl... Blake has a few bad games and in goes the rookie
I think this staff is smarter than that and the roster is equipped to reach the play-offs even if Blake does have a few bad games. (he certainly had a few bad games in 2017)
(03-25-2018, 02:11 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 12:36 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The best thing about Blake's extension and moderately improved play in 2017 is that the Jaguars legitimately can do exactly that and really mean it.
It gives them a somewhat rare opportunity to develop a fringe or raw QB prospect for a year (maybe two) while investments in the defense and run game keep them competitive despite the starting QB's inconsistencies.
All true, but we all know how that usually plays out in the nfl... Blake has a few bad games and in goes the rookie
That's what I'm hoping. Right now, we have no insurance at all.
(03-25-2018, 02:16 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 02:11 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]All true, but we all know how that usually plays out in the nfl... Blake has a few bad games and in goes the rookie
I think this staff is smarter than that and the roster is equipped to reach the play-offs even if Blake does have a few bad games. (he certainly had a few bad games in 2017)
It's always the plan but things never go to plan, and the rookie goes in. Mahomes is the only one I can think of that has actually sat his whole rookie year, and that was because Smith was playing at such a high level last season. Perfect situation would be Blake playing well the whole year and giving us huge trade value, but history says odds are against it.
(03-25-2018, 02:46 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (03-25-2018, 02:16 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I think this staff is smarter than that and the roster is equipped to reach the play-offs even if Blake does have a few bad games. (he certainly had a few bad games in 2017)
It's always the plan but things never go to plan, and the rookie goes in. Mahomes is the only one I can think of that has actually sat his whole rookie year, and that was because Smith was playing at such a high level last season. Perfect situation would be Blake playing well the whole year and giving us huge trade value, but history says odds are against it.
That's a grim outlook, but completely unconvincing for me.
Things do indeed go according to plan sometimes and fear of failure is no reason not to make a strategic move at the quarterback position.
QBs that sat their first year: Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Jared Goff
We just haven't seen it much lately. Doesn't mean it can't be done - and the Jags seem to be in a nearly perfect stance to try it.
That chat screams draft your LB in the first then OL in the second and third and go for upside in positions after that since there's a dismall chance elsewhere lol
I would take the hit% with a major grain of salt in this. Remember when we went through this with a finer tooth comb for QBs they were counting some absolute trash at QB just because they technically started for multiple years. Guys like JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Brady Quinn and more...
I would guess that is happening quite a bit at the other positions too. For example, I'll bet they count Joeckel and Greg Robinson as hits simply because they have started a lot even though they have been awful.
(03-25-2018, 07:26 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Here is a study of draft pick success rate, by position and by round, using draft picks from 2005 to 2014. The criterion is, does the pick become a solid starter.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
=====quote======
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
=======end quote==========
From looking at this, since we are in win-now mode and since we want to focus on the running game, I'd pick an offensive lineman in the first round if there is one that merits the pick.
I wouldn't bother with a QB after the second round. It's a wasted pick.
This is very interesting. How many GMs have final word on which players start? I remember Gene Smith fired a WR coach and cut a free agent WR, Jason Hill, to get his pick (Cecil Shorts) on the field.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/...1699818496