03-31-2018, 02:55 PM
03-31-2018, 02:55 PM
04-01-2018, 01:14 AM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/car...475346002/
think this is relevant here.
think this is relevant here.
04-01-2018, 07:30 AM
(04-01-2018, 01:14 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/car...475346002/
think this is relevant here.
From your link:
Quote:It said the first version would found by the government to reduce crash rates by up to 40% and that it's only gotten better -- Tesla flashes over-the-air update -- since then.
If Tesla's software can be changed remotely, what stops a hacker terrorist from rewriting the Tesla fleet to (say) mow down pedestrians?
04-01-2018, 09:01 AM
(04-01-2018, 07:30 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ](04-01-2018, 01:14 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/car...475346002/
think this is relevant here.
From your link:
Quote:It said the first version would found by the government to reduce crash rates by up to 40% and that it's only gotten better -- Tesla flashes over-the-air update -- since then.
If Tesla's software can be changed remotely, what stops a hacker terrorist from rewriting the Tesla fleet to (say) mow down pedestrians?
I don't think we can make life fool proof, but we can make it better. I put equal trust in the development of predictive security technologies and human competence behind the wheel, which is not much since I'm a skeptic by nature. Neither will be perfect ever, but machines will eventually be better than people by wide margins.
04-01-2018, 10:06 AM
This is a bump in the road. Full autonomy is right around the corner. Like it or not, machines/computers can do tasks better and more efficient than humans. I wonder how many here realize just how much is entrusted to computers when they fly. Pilots are becoming more or less obsolete. With NextGen being implemented in the US and most newer aircraft being CATIII certified and CATIIIa, b, c in testing, full pilotless travel is less than 10 years away. In my opinion, with proper funding and cooperation across the infrastructure sectors, driverless cars are a much easier reality.
04-01-2018, 11:48 PM
(04-01-2018, 10:06 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]This is a bump in the road. Full autonomy is right around the corner. Like it or not, machines/computers can do tasks better and more efficient than humans. I wonder how many here realize just how much is entrusted to computers when they fly. Pilots are becoming more or less obsolete. With NextGen being implemented in the US and most newer aircraft being CATIII certified and CATIIIa, b, c in testing, full pilotless travel is less than 10 years away. In my opinion, with proper funding and cooperation across the infrastructure sectors, driverless cars are a much easier reality.
The difference is that pilots, truck drivers, and taxi drivers are paid. There is a strong financial incentive to replace them.
When you are in your own car, you are not being paid, and thus other considerations take precedent. Do you (not you specifically) want control of your car? Is a computer-driven car more expensive? Do you trust the computer? Do you see driving a car not driven by a computer as a form of protest against having others tell you what to do?
Ultimately, I agree it will come down to how soon the government mandates it. Mandatory use of seat belts and baby seats took a long time. Airbags were mandated very quickly, too quickly in the case of the passenger-side death cannons. Since this affects the safety of others, and the elite love to tell the peons how to live their lives, I suspect it will happen rather quickly.
04-02-2018, 01:40 AM
(04-01-2018, 09:01 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ](04-01-2018, 07:30 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]
From your link:
If Tesla's software can be changed remotely, what stops a hacker terrorist from rewriting the Tesla fleet to (say) mow down pedestrians?
I don't think we can make life fool proof, but we can make it better. I put equal trust in the development of predictive security technologies and human competence behind the wheel, which is not much since I'm a skeptic by nature. Neither will be perfect ever, but machines will eventually be better than people by wide margins.
Its not whether the widget machine can produce widgets faster than a human. This is complex programing, and anyone who has spent any amount of time program knows that debugging even simple things can be a nightmare, much less something as complex as a self driving car with many 'run-away trolley' type choices.
Think of it this way. I knew a girl who was a complete ditz as a driver in highschool. She crashed her car three times over the last 2.5 years of highschool (and this was presmart phone/texting so that wasn't it). Compare that to my android/computer software crashes and freezes. I can't tell exactly how many times its happened in the last 2.5 years, but its way more than 3.
And unlike that ditzy girl, computer programs don't get better about crashing over time, they get much much worse. So much so, that people suggest that you have to wipe windows clean every couple of years if you want it to run reliably. Or they say not to update your iphones more than 3 times, because they basically become unable to run. How is it that everyone knows this about every smart phone/computer they have, and yet they expect cars running some version of 'autopilot' being made by companies that have far smaller software departments than microsoft or apple to do better?
OTA updates make a tesla better? Yeah right! The cars functions will go slower and slower and start glitching and crashing more often. This is what technology does!
04-02-2018, 01:51 AM
(04-01-2018, 10:06 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]This is a bump in the road. Full autonomy is right around the corner. Like it or not, machines/computers can do tasks better and more efficient than humans. I wonder how many here realize just how much is entrusted to computers when they fly. Pilots are becoming more or less obsolete. With NextGen being implemented in the US and most newer aircraft being CATIII certified and CATIIIa, b, c in testing, full pilotless travel is less than 10 years away. In my opinion, with proper funding and cooperation across the infrastructure sectors, driverless cars are a much easier reality.
Until we have 'air traffic control' for roads with preplaned routes and about 1,000,000 times less cars with no obstacles to hit and no lanes to stay in, that analogy is stupendously bad. And they still need pilots for take off and landing even with all those advantages.
04-02-2018, 07:13 AM
(04-02-2018, 01:51 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ](04-01-2018, 10:06 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]This is a bump in the road. Full autonomy is right around the corner. Like it or not, machines/computers can do tasks better and more efficient than humans. I wonder how many here realize just how much is entrusted to computers when they fly. Pilots are becoming more or less obsolete. With NextGen being implemented in the US and most newer aircraft being CATIII certified and CATIIIa, b, c in testing, full pilotless travel is less than 10 years away. In my opinion, with proper funding and cooperation across the infrastructure sectors, driverless cars are a much easier reality.
Until we have 'air traffic control' for roads with preplaned routes and about 1,000,000 times less cars with no obstacles to hit and no lanes to stay in, that analogy is stupendously bad. And they still need pilots for take off and landing even with all those advantages.
My understanding is, the landing is done by computer. Pilots don't actually land passenger planes any more.
My faith in self driving cars comes in part from my experience in business. Around 1990, we started a business that automated the way prices are quoted and offers are generated by sales people. The response we very often got was, what if your program or database has a mistake in it, and I lose money as a result? And our response to that was, our program/database will inevitably contain errors, but the error rate from using our program and database will be far less than the error rate you will have without it. Over time, our product was widely adopted, and now people cannot do without it.
That's the deal with self-driving cars. Even now, they make far fewer mistakes than humans make, and it'll get even better over time. So some guy crashes his Tesla and dies, and it's treated like it's the end of self driving cars. That's ridiculous. Self driving cars are going to happen. The world moves forward.
04-02-2018, 08:23 AM
(04-02-2018, 07:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 01:51 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]Until we have 'air traffic control' for roads with preplaned routes and about 1,000,000 times less cars with no obstacles to hit and no lanes to stay in, that analogy is stupendously bad. And they still need pilots for take off and landing even with all those advantages.
My understanding is, the landing is done by computer. Pilots don't actually land passenger planes any more.
My faith in self driving cars comes in part from my experience in business. Around 1990, we started a business that automated the way prices are quoted and offers are generated by sales people. The response we very often got was, what if your program or database has a mistake in it, and I lose money as a result? And our response to that was, our program/database will inevitably contain errors, but the error rate from using our program and database will be far less than the error rate you will have without it. Over time, our product was widely adopted, and now people cannot do without it.
That's the deal with self-driving cars. Even now, they make far fewer mistakes than humans make, and it'll get even better over time. So some guy crashes his Tesla and dies, and it's treated like it's the end of self driving cars. That's ridiculous. Self driving cars are going to happen. The world moves forward.
No thanks.
The only way that would truly work would be if the government imposed a law mandating that every citizen purchase a self-driving car. And that gets you civil unrest if not outright rebellion.
I'm 33 and there's no way in hell I want a self-driving car. And I hate driving.
04-02-2018, 08:45 AM
(04-02-2018, 08:23 AM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 07:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]My understanding is, the landing is done by computer. Pilots don't actually land passenger planes any more.
My faith in self driving cars comes in part from my experience in business. Around 1990, we started a business that automated the way prices are quoted and offers are generated by sales people. The response we very often got was, what if your program or database has a mistake in it, and I lose money as a result? And our response to that was, our program/database will inevitably contain errors, but the error rate from using our program and database will be far less than the error rate you will have without it. Over time, our product was widely adopted, and now people cannot do without it.
That's the deal with self-driving cars. Even now, they make far fewer mistakes than humans make, and it'll get even better over time. So some guy crashes his Tesla and dies, and it's treated like it's the end of self driving cars. That's ridiculous. Self driving cars are going to happen. The world moves forward.
No thanks.
The only way that would truly work would be if the government imposed a law mandating that every citizen purchase a self-driving car. And that gets you civil unrest if not outright rebellion.
I'm 33 and there's no way in hell I want a self-driving car. And I hate driving.
I don't understand what you're saying there.
Self-driving cars will be safer for the occupant of the self driving car, whether or not anyone else owns them.
Imagine you're living in 1885. You can continue to ride a horse if you want. A lot of people will choose instead to drive those newfangled horseless carriages.
04-02-2018, 10:03 AM
(04-02-2018, 08:23 AM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 07:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]My understanding is, the landing is done by computer. Pilots don't actually land passenger planes any more.
My faith in self driving cars comes in part from my experience in business. Around 1990, we started a business that automated the way prices are quoted and offers are generated by sales people. The response we very often got was, what if your program or database has a mistake in it, and I lose money as a result? And our response to that was, our program/database will inevitably contain errors, but the error rate from using our program and database will be far less than the error rate you will have without it. Over time, our product was widely adopted, and now people cannot do without it.
That's the deal with self-driving cars. Even now, they make far fewer mistakes than humans make, and it'll get even better over time. So some guy crashes his Tesla and dies, and it's treated like it's the end of self driving cars. That's ridiculous. Self driving cars are going to happen. The world moves forward.
No thanks.
The only way that would truly work would be if the government imposed a law mandating that every citizen purchase a self-driving car. And that gets you civil unrest if not outright rebellion.
I'm 33 and there's no way in hell I want a self-driving car. And I hate driving.
Hi, I'm Flo from Progressive.
I'm sorry to inform you that persons who continue to manually operate a motor vehicle will now be required to pay an additional premium to cover the expenses associated with human error in the unsafe operation of motor vehicles. Your new policy rate is $16,875 for 6 months. Your rate will be reduced by $16,575 if you choose to insure a vehicle equipped with automated steering control technology before the expiration date of your policy.
Progressive, protecting you from your own stubbornness since, well, pretty much forever.
04-02-2018, 10:14 AM
(04-02-2018, 01:51 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]Because you’re ignorant to how things work around you doesn’t mean the analogy is “stupendously bad”. By your response you didn’t even take the time to research terms you obviously didn’t comprehend. To help you out, airline crew sizes have been cut in half and so have their functional requirements. With NextGen, technology that is already in place will allow for taxi, takeoff, and landing by computer. Most of those tasks already occur without passengers being aware, leaving the pilot as a glorified radio operator. Common misconception is that most flights are VFR or looking out the window, which is just not the case. Back to cars...why can’t the DOT map out and place sensors on all roadways that act as waypoints for autonomous cars? Google already maps about 90% of all roads without Federal assistance and sensors can be placed during periodic road maintenance. As to your ‘air traffic control’ for roads, in a sense, it already exists in large metropolises.(04-01-2018, 10:06 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]This is a bump in the road. Full autonomy is right around the corner. Like it or not, machines/computers can do tasks better and more efficient than humans. I wonder how many here realize just how much is entrusted to computers when they fly. Pilots are becoming more or less obsolete. With NextGen being implemented in the US and most newer aircraft being CATIII certified and CATIIIa, b, c in testing, full pilotless travel is less than 10 years away. In my opinion, with proper funding and cooperation across the infrastructure sectors, driverless cars are a much easier reality.
Until we have 'air traffic control' for roads with preplaned routes and about 1,000,000 times less cars with no obstacles to hit and no lanes to stay in, that analogy is stupendously bad. And they still need pilots for take off and landing even with all those advantages.
It’s a new concept that is foreign and uncomfortable. Nothing new when it comes to innovation.
04-02-2018, 06:09 PM
(03-30-2018, 11:10 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ](03-30-2018, 09:30 PM)Sneakers Wrote: [ -> ]A computer is fine for climate control. I'm not giving up gas, brakes and steering.
You already have an electronic throttle control, automatic braking and steering assist in new cars. You already gave up control, all you have left is it's illusion.
Since I have none of these in my truck I've not given up a dang thing, and I won't until I have absolutely no choice.
I should not be forced to buy a vehicle I don't find safe by my standards anymore than I should pay higher fuel tax just because people drive those Prius cars and others like them. Not that it has happened but I heard a rumor once that it could happen. I pay enough in gas and gas tax when I fill my Silverado without having to also pay the difference in what oil companies and states are losing in revenue from the granola crowd.
04-02-2018, 06:22 PM
(04-02-2018, 07:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 01:51 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]Until we have 'air traffic control' for roads with preplaned routes and about 1,000,000 times less cars with no obstacles to hit and no lanes to stay in, that analogy is stupendously bad. And they still need pilots for take off and landing even with all those advantages.
My understanding is, the landing is done by computer. Pilots don't actually land passenger planes any more.
My faith in self driving cars comes in part from my experience in business. Around 1990, we started a business that automated the way prices are quoted and offers are generated by sales people. The response we very often got was, what if your program or database has a mistake in it, and I lose money as a result? And our response to that was, our program/database will inevitably contain errors, but the error rate from using our program and database will be far less than the error rate you will have without it. Over time, our product was widely adopted, and now people cannot do without it.
That's the deal with self-driving cars. Even now, they make far fewer mistakes than humans make, and it'll get even better over time. So some guy crashes his Tesla and dies, and it's treated like it's the end of self driving cars. That's ridiculous. Self driving cars are going to happen. The world moves forward.
A lot of so-called human error is people just being plain stupid. Drunk driving, distracted driving, failing to follow even basic driving rules and regulations (like a rolling stop at a traffic light or stop sign), etc. Every single one of those things are preventable if people would actually engage in the act of safe driving.
04-02-2018, 08:13 PM
(04-02-2018, 06:09 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ](03-30-2018, 11:10 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]You already have an electronic throttle control, automatic braking and steering assist in new cars. You already gave up control, all you have left is it's illusion.
Since I have none of these in my truck I've not given up a dang thing, and I won't until I have absolutely no choice.
I should not be forced to buy a vehicle I don't find safe by my standards anymore than I should pay higher fuel tax just because people drive those Prius cars and others like them. Not that it has happened but I heard a rumor once that it could happen. I pay enough in gas and gas tax when I fill my Silverado without having to also pay the difference in what oil companies and states are losing in revenue from the granola crowd.
There was a time when seat belts weren't installed in cars, much less mandated. Times change and you will too.
(04-02-2018, 06:22 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 07:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]My understanding is, the landing is done by computer. Pilots don't actually land passenger planes any more.
My faith in self driving cars comes in part from my experience in business. Around 1990, we started a business that automated the way prices are quoted and offers are generated by sales people. The response we very often got was, what if your program or database has a mistake in it, and I lose money as a result? And our response to that was, our program/database will inevitably contain errors, but the error rate from using our program and database will be far less than the error rate you will have without it. Over time, our product was widely adopted, and now people cannot do without it.
That's the deal with self-driving cars. Even now, they make far fewer mistakes than humans make, and it'll get even better over time. So some guy crashes his Tesla and dies, and it's treated like it's the end of self driving cars. That's ridiculous. Self driving cars are going to happen. The world moves forward.
A lot of so-called human error is people just being plain stupid. Drunk driving, distracted driving, failing to follow even basic driving rules and regulations (like a rolling stop at a traffic light or stop sign), etc. Every single one of those things are preventable if people would actually engage in the act of safe driving.
Human stupidity is the ultimate certainty. Machines will mitigate it far better than we ever could.
04-02-2018, 09:53 PM
(04-02-2018, 10:14 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ] Back to cars...why can’t the DOT map out and place sensors on all roadways that act as waypoints for autonomous cars? Google already maps about 90% of all roads without Federal assistance and sensors can be placed during periodic road maintenance.
There is a vast difference between mapping a road for informational purposes and creating a sensor array capable of the degree of precision necessary to operate an automobile, even in perfect conditions.
How many sensors per mile do you anticipate this requiring? Where are they placed? Are they powered? If so, how?
What happens when a sensor fails? What is the fault-free life cycle of a sensor?
How is the sensitivity affected by weather? What happens when they're covered in snow or ice? Would an earthquake in San Francisco send every car off the road?
How will the self driving car recognize a human directing traffic? Will it stop for a child running into the street?
04-02-2018, 10:47 PM
(04-02-2018, 08:13 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 06:09 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]Since I have none of these in my truck I've not given up a dang thing, and I won't until I have absolutely no choice.
I should not be forced to buy a vehicle I don't find safe by my standards anymore than I should pay higher fuel tax just because people drive those Prius cars and others like them. Not that it has happened but I heard a rumor once that it could happen. I pay enough in gas and gas tax when I fill my Silverado without having to also pay the difference in what oil companies and states are losing in revenue from the granola crowd.
There was a time when seat belts weren't installed in cars, much less mandated. Times change and you will too.
(04-02-2018, 06:22 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of so-called human error is people just being plain stupid. Drunk driving, distracted driving, failing to follow even basic driving rules and regulations (like a rolling stop at a traffic light or stop sign), etc. Every single one of those things are preventable if people would actually engage in the act of safe driving.
Human stupidity is the ultimate certainty. Machines will mitigate it far better than we ever could.
Like I said, until I have no choice I have a choice. And to say machines will do better than we ever can is pretty ironic to say in this thread.
04-02-2018, 11:24 PM
(04-02-2018, 10:47 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 08:13 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]There was a time when seat belts weren't installed in cars, much less mandated. Times change and you will too.
Human stupidity is the ultimate certainty. Machines will mitigate it far better than we ever could.
Like I said, until I have no choice I have a choice. And to say machines will do better than we ever can is pretty ironic to say in this thread.
Did you know Google's self driving cars have logged more than 1,000,000 miles since 2010? 13 collisions and only one that was the car's fault. They will market their first commercial vehicle in another 24 months and then Moore's Law launches the inevitable exponential growth. 2025 we'll all be I the passenger's seat, literally.
04-02-2018, 11:38 PM
(04-02-2018, 09:53 PM)Sneakers Wrote: [ -> ](04-02-2018, 10:14 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ] Back to cars...why can’t the DOT map out and place sensors on all roadways that act as waypoints for autonomous cars? Google already maps about 90% of all roads without Federal assistance and sensors can be placed during periodic road maintenance.
There is a vast difference between mapping a road for informational purposes and creating a sensor array capable of the degree of precision necessary to operate an automobile, even in perfect conditions.
How many sensors per mile do you anticipate this requiring? Where are they placed? Are they powered? If so, how?
ZWhat happens when a sensor fails? What is the fault-free life cycle of a sensor?
How is the sensitivity affected by weather? What happens when they're covered in snow or ice? Would an earthquake in San Francisco send every car off the road?
How will the self driving car recognize a human directing traffic? Will it stop for a child running into the street?
You realize that multiple technologies and various forms of information are combined to achieve the task, right? Do you realize sensors are already placed in many roads for traffic coordination? How about solar powered lights embedded in pavement as directional markers? Cars are already gps enabled. Wifi enabled. Have automatic break features. Automatic parking, etc. You have a lot of concerns but none that haven’t been addressed with existing technology. None mentioned are impossible hurdles. Universities and States are working through smart infrastructure.
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