Not sure if there are any stat and analytic junkies out there but I found this article very interesting as it relates to the top QB prospects in this years draft.
Quote: The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss. To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3 to 5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.
However, there is one top prospect who QBASE clearly likes ahead of all the others, and one top prospect whose statistical profile is a gigantic red flag. We explain both projections below, along with the QBASE projections for six other top quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. rankings for the 2018 draft....
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a...qbase-2018
(04-03-2018, 12:14 PM)knarnn Wrote: [ -> ]Not sure if there are any stat and analytic junkies out there but I found this article very interesting as it relates to the top QB prospects in this years draft.
Quote: The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss. To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3 to 5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.
However, there is one top prospect who QBASE clearly likes ahead of all the others, and one top prospect whose statistical profile is a gigantic red flag. We explain both projections below, along with the QBASE projections for six other top quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. rankings for the 2018 draft....
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a...qbase-2018
Interesting system, but I think if you just watch these guys play, Rosen is the hands down best QB right now. He looks like a sure-fire franchise QB.
If he isn't the 1st QB taken, whoever gets him should probably consider getting a steal.
It should be Rosen but it's going to be Darnold.
Maybe there is a greater force out there that puts Rosen in NY instead of Cleveland. Who knows.
(04-03-2018, 12:43 PM)jg77 Wrote: [ -> ]It should be Rosen but it's going to be Darnold.
Maybe there is a greater force out there that puts Rosen in NY instead of Cleveland. Who knows.
I just saw a segment on ESPN where they're trying to say Jim Mora's comments could cause Rosen to drop a little....I doubt it....but if it does, it's moronic.
Saying that someone needs to be challenged mentally shouldn't drop their stock. Rosen is just an intelligent dude and if you've ever managed employees for almost any company, you've come across this type of person.....as the coach or manager you recognize that and you keep that person engaged...basically just point them in a focused direction and watch them succeed.
I understand why a GM who has his job on the line wouldn't do it, but if I were picking first I would take Mayfield without hesitation.
(04-03-2018, 02:23 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]I understand why a GM who has his job on the line wouldn't do it, but if I were picking first I would take Mayfield without hesitation.
In another thread I mentioned how Orlando Brown's HC was talking about him. Well, he also talked about Mayfield, and he truly does sound like an exceptional QB. He talked about how not only can he make every throw, but he has enough arm to make throws even when he's off balance or not mechanicially set. He then explained that his mechanics, however, are superb, and that physically he's able to shake off or elude defenders where other QBs might struggle.
I also really like Darnald, and talking to some of my co-workers who watch a lot of college ball, they're telling me Darnold is flat out better than Rosen and that he's going to immediatley impress in the pros.
Rosen is going to be better than Darnold.
(04-03-2018, 02:23 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]I understand why a GM who has his job on the line wouldn't do it, but if I were picking first I would take Mayfield without hesitation.
If I were sure he's not a problem child, and that height won't be an issue, I'd take him before Darnold and Rosen as well.
Darnold and Rosen don't impress me for those with draft projections as high as they are.
Folks like to talk about this being a strong QB class, but I'm not sold on that idea - even on the top candidates. I'd be surprised if any of them went on to be great NFL QBs in the NFL. I see a handful of guys that have a chance to be only good.
I'd go :
Mayfield : High end starter
Rosen : High end starter
Lamar : mid-to high end depending on team
Darnold : Low to mid end starter
Allen : Low end starter/backup
Rudolph : Low end starter/backup
Lauletta : Low end starter/backup
My ever changing QB ranking at the moment looks like...
- Darnold
- Mayfield
- Rosen
- Jackson
- Rudolph
- Allen
- Falk
- White
- Litton
- Lauletta
Mayfield is still my #1 QB, but like I've said many times I understand why a GM who has his job on the line would go with Darnold or Rosen.
I would be ok with Rudolph at 29. I don't think he has elite upside, but we're in a good position to take a shot at a franchise QB with the rest of the roster currently and as has been pointed out a lot we're going to need to get another starting QB on a rookie salary if we want to keep the salary cap gravy train rolling. I'd rather Jackson by quite a bit but I think there's almost zero chance he makes it to 29, and I think there's a pretty good chance Rudolph makes it to us.
(04-04-2018, 02:36 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]I'd go :
Mayfield : High end starter
Rosen : High end starter
Lamar : mid-to high end depending on team
Darnold : Low to mid end starter
Allen : Low end starter/backup
Rudolph : Low end starter/backup
Lauletta : Low end starter/backup
My rankings would be very similar to this. A lot will depend on who drafts them. I do believe there's a big gap after the top 4 guys. I really love the fact that Jag fans have NOT had to have the same debates as Browns' fans on whom to draft from this group. As far as the possibility of them selecting Rudolph, I find it highly unlikely unless he falls to their 2nd round pick. I just don't see them passing on an immediate starter who might help put them over the top this year.
I'm always the oddball with the QBs
1/1a Mayfield/Darnold
2 Allen
3 Rosen
4/4a Jackson/Rudolph
5 White
I think that in reality the answer is that the Browns should go for the safest pick, because they can’t really afford to screw this opportunity up.
It’s not the sexy pick, but that could mean Josh Rosen.
(04-12-2018, 07:34 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I'm always the oddball with the QBs
1/1a Mayfield/Darnold
2 Allen
3 Rosen
4 Jackson
5 White
I'm still debating Rosen, Darnald and Mayfield because I really, REALLY like all three.
After them It's Lamar Jackson for me.
Then comes the rest of them... Rudolph, Allen, Falk, Lauletta, etc
(04-12-2018, 07:43 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2018, 07:34 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I'm always the oddball with the QBs
1/1a Mayfield/Darnold
2 Allen
3 Rosen
4 Jackson
5 White
I'm still debating Rosen, Darnald and Mayfield because I really, REALLY like all three.
After them It's Lamar Jackson for me.
Then comes the rest of them... Rudolph, Allen, Falk, Lauletta, etc
I actually forgot to slide Rudolph in there on my list. D'oh!
Meant to put him above White.