(01-28-2019, 01:27 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (01-27-2019, 06:53 PM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]This upcoming election will be one of the most extreme, albeit diverse, groups in history. Socialism is the new buzz and sadly that bandwagon is gaining steam. To that, expect the candidates will also lean heavily on Trump bashing will little campaigning substance.
I detest Trump but I will not ever vote for a socialist. That includes Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and numerous others.
I really think if it's Trump vs an Elizabeth Warren type, there's a good chance a middle of the road 3rd party candidate could win the election.
No way. Trump's base is strong. A middle of the road candidate would mainly take away from the democratic vote, which is why the thought of Howard Schultz running as an independent scares the crap of of them.
(01-28-2019, 09:55 AM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 09:44 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]But, are they pissed off at Trump MORE than the thought of the left's radical agenda? The reasons people are currently mad at Trump will subside, their agenda will only get worse as the primaries get closer.
Coming off the longest shutdown in government history, ultimately sort of resolved for now by Trump doing something he could have done weeks ago and with Trump threatening to take an unpopular move by declaring a hokey-pokey "national emergency" to fulfill a campaign promise?
Yeah, they're pissed. He's going to need more than 3% GDP to win re-election.
Pretty sure the Demo nominee will move more to the center once nominated. That's what usually happens.
What the Democrats have going for them is - Donald Trump. Trump won't have Hillary to run against. This time he'll be Hillary.
What's Trump going to run on? A tax cut no one seems to have benefited from (unless you're a CEO)? The economy might not look so rosy in 2020. Someone somewhere might actually care about the debt/deficit. Not the Trumpettes, but someone. What else will Donald be able to crow about? His agenda is going/has gone no where, and with a Democratically controlled House it's ain't going anywhere. And the Mueller Report will have been issued by then, I would think. You think that's going to make Donald look good. He'll look sleazy and/or stupid. Yeah, he really hires the best people.
The question will be - since Donald isn't even trying to widen his base - are there enough middle-age, middle-class, white men and those who watch Fox and are afraid of the Coming of Socialism and Immigrant Invasion to overcome everyone else? How many of the everyone else will vote?
(01-28-2019, 01:37 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 09:55 AM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]Coming off the longest shutdown in government history, ultimately sort of resolved for now by Trump doing something he could have done weeks ago and with Trump threatening to take an unpopular move by declaring a hokey-pokey "national emergency" to fulfill a campaign promise?
Yeah, they're pissed. He's going to need more than 3% GDP to win re-election.
Pretty sure the Demo nominee will move more to the center once nominated. That's what usually happens.
What the Democrats have going for them is - Donald Trump. Trump won't have Hillary to run against. This time he'll be Hillary.
What's Trump going to run on? A tax cut no one seems to have benefited from (unless you're a CEO)? The economy might not look so rosy in 2020. Someone somewhere might actually care about the debt/deficit. Not the Trumpettes, but someone. What else will Donald be able to crow about? His agenda is going/has gone no where, and with a Democratically controlled House it's ain't going anywhere. And the Mueller Report will have been issued by then, I would think. You think that's going to make Donald look good. He'll look sleazy and/or stupid. Yeah, he really hires the best people.
The question will be - since Donald isn't even trying to widen his base - are there enough middle-age, middle-class, white men and those who watch Fox and are afraid of the Coming of Socialism and Immigrant Invasion to overcome everyone else? How many of the everyone else will vote?
Your myth that only CEO's benefited from tax reform is just that. A myth. My paycheck went up substantially when the new tax tables took effect last February. That is not an opinion. It is a fact.
The economy might not look so rosy in 2020? Based on what? I know Barack Obama told you that sub 2% GDP was the "new norm", but obviously it's not.
Your problem is that you can't make a point without insulting someone. This is why nobody takes you serious and why your reputation score looks like Bortles' QB rating.
(01-28-2019, 01:37 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 09:55 AM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]Coming off the longest shutdown in government history, ultimately sort of resolved for now by Trump doing something he could have done weeks ago and with Trump threatening to take an unpopular move by declaring a hokey-pokey "national emergency" to fulfill a campaign promise?
Yeah, they're pissed. He's going to need more than 3% GDP to win re-election.
Pretty sure the Demo nominee will move more to the center once nominated. That's what usually happens.
What the Democrats have going for them is - Donald Trump. Trump won't have Hillary to run against. This time he'll be Hillary.
What's Trump going to run on? A tax cut no one seems to have benefited from (unless you're a CEO)? The economy might not look so rosy in 2020. Someone somewhere might actually care about the debt/deficit. Not the Trumpettes, but someone. What else will Donald be able to crow about? His agenda is going/has gone no where, and with a Democratically controlled House it's ain't going anywhere. And the Mueller Report will have been issued by then, I would think. You think that's going to make Donald look good. He'll look sleazy and/or stupid. Yeah, he really hires the best people.
The question will be - since Donald isn't even trying to widen his base - are there enough middle-age, middle-class, white men and those who watch Fox and are afraid of the Coming of Socialism and Immigrant Invasion to overcome everyone else? How many of the everyone else will vote?
So let's see if I have this right. In order for Trump to lose...
Dems need to be young, socialist, upper-class, immigrant women who watch CNN and need to raise taxes on themselves to boost a down economy. They also need to convince the democratically controlled house who is responsible for government funding (debt/deficit) to stop spending money while looking to implement medicare for all, standard minimum wage, free college, and expand programs to combat climate change. They will also need to be sure Repubs in the House and Senate don't #Reist all policy reform simply because they hate the new POTUS candidate. Seems legit. Those richer old white Dems will be sure to adopt this point of view I'm sure as soon as they lock in their pay and put term limits on the books.
(01-28-2019, 01:37 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 09:55 AM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]Coming off the longest shutdown in government history, ultimately sort of resolved for now by Trump doing something he could have done weeks ago and with Trump threatening to take an unpopular move by declaring a hokey-pokey "national emergency" to fulfill a campaign promise?
Yeah, they're pissed. He's going to need more than 3% GDP to win re-election.
Pretty sure the Demo nominee will move more to the center once nominated. That's what usually happens.
What the Democrats have going for them is - Donald Trump. Trump won't have Hillary to run against. This time he'll be Hillary.
What's Trump going to run on? A tax cut no one seems to have benefited from (unless you're a CEO)? The economy might not look so rosy in 2020. Someone somewhere might actually care about the debt/deficit. Not the Trumpettes, but someone. What else will Donald be able to crow about? His agenda is going/has gone no where, and with a Democratically controlled House it's ain't going anywhere. And the Mueller Report will have been issued by then, I would think. You think that's going to make Donald look good. He'll look sleazy and/or stupid. Yeah, he really hires the best people.
The question will be - since Donald isn't even trying to widen his base - are there enough middle-age, middle-class, white men and those who watch Fox and are afraid of the Coming of Socialism and Immigrant Invasion to overcome everyone else? How many of the everyone else will vote?
Except that Obama and Hillary did not move to the center. If anything, in 2012 and 2016, they moved further left.
Trump is a liability for the GOP, but he also carries 30% of the population with him. The Mueller report isn't likely to hurt him with his base, because all he has to do is snap his fingers and say, "Lock her up!", and they're chanting about someone who lost four years ago. Amongst independents and right-leaning Democrats...you know, the people who won the election for him in 2016...a sufficiently damning report that puts some facts around the level of corruption in his campaign, even if it can't be traced directly to him, would do real damage.
What's also going to hurt him is the jobs he promised to restore that, thus far, haven't come back. And, of course, not getting a wall won't prompt his base to vote blue, but it could prompt some of them to stay home. If he goes back to the campaign trail spitting fire about immigration, he will rightfully be asked why he didn't keep his word the first time around.
None of this means that Trump will lose. The election is almost two years away, and we don't know who the Democrats will run. If it's a far leftist like Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris, forget it. Trump's won already because all he'd have to do is say "Pocahontas" a few times and set her off. If it's a centrist like Tulsi Gabbard who can stay centrist and still win the nomination somehow, I think his odds go down. The worst thing that could possibly happen to Trump in 2020 is a legislator who has worked very effectively with both sides of the aisle (including working with Steve Bannon during Trump's transition) and has strong appeal to millennials.
Social media is a bad way to judge these things but Kamala Harris is getting dogged daily for her hypocrisy about the justice system. Not sure that sentiment goes away
(01-28-2019, 01:52 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 01:37 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty sure the Demo nominee will move more to the center once nominated. That's what usually happens.
What the Democrats have going for them is - Donald Trump. Trump won't have Hillary to run against. This time he'll be Hillary.
What's Trump going to run on? A tax cut no one seems to have benefited from (unless you're a CEO)? The economy might not look so rosy in 2020. Someone somewhere might actually care about the debt/deficit. Not the Trumpettes, but someone. What else will Donald be able to crow about? His agenda is going/has gone no where, and with a Democratically controlled House it's ain't going anywhere. And the Mueller Report will have been issued by then, I would think. You think that's going to make Donald look good. He'll look sleazy and/or stupid. Yeah, he really hires the best people.
The question will be - since Donald isn't even trying to widen his base - are there enough middle-age, middle-class, white men and those who watch Fox and are afraid of the Coming of Socialism and Immigrant Invasion to overcome everyone else? How many of the everyone else will vote?
Your myth that only CEO's benefited from tax reform is just that. A myth. My paycheck went up substantially when the new tax tables took effect last February. That is not an opinion. It is a fact.
The economy might not look so rosy in 2020? Based on what?
Based on the fact that the Democrats took the House. They get to [BLEEP] up the economy and blame Trump while doing it, then the LIVs will vote Democrat to get some government cheese.
I have never paid much attention to Harris, but I have to say I am a little surprise just how extremely radical her ideas are.
(01-28-2019, 10:55 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 10:19 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]The question is though, is this the direction of ALL democratic candidates? What happens when the moderate democrats throw their hat in the ring, like Uncle Joe? Call me crazy, but I think Hillary is sitting back right now with her arms crossed and a Dr. Evil grin on her face and waiting to enter the primary as dare I say it, dare I say it..... the most "normal" moderate candidate in the field.
I think her time has passed but I do agree that a seemingly more moderate Dem candidate could do very well in this climate.
A moderate Democrat (without the incredible baggage Hillary Clinton carries around) could win the general election in a landslide. But the Dems don't look like they are going in that direction. They are lurching to the left and that will insure Trump's reelection.
(01-29-2019, 06:47 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 10:55 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]I think her time has passed but I do agree that a seemingly more moderate Dem candidate could do very well in this climate.
A moderate Democrat (without the incredible baggage Hillary Clinton carries around) could win the general election in a landslide. But the Dems don't look like they are going in that direction. They are lurching to the left and that will insure Trump's reelection.
I agree with this. The crazy is going to scare Center-Left America into Status Quo.
(01-29-2019, 06:47 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 10:55 AM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]I think her time has passed but I do agree that a seemingly more moderate Dem candidate could do very well in this climate.
A moderate Democrat (without the incredible baggage Hillary Clinton carries around) could win the general election in a landslide. But the Dems don't look like they are going in that direction. They are lurching to the left and that will insure Trump's reelection.
Wait a minute. So many posters stated in the summer of 2016 that Hillary was just a clone of Obama, and Obama was a Kenyan-born Communist -
and she won the popular vote.
Donald is the new Hillary. She had a base as well. Many, many people think Donald is a clown. And how are we so sure the Democratic nominee will be seen as some great Socialist demon. Sure, Fox will play that angle but don't be so sure the voting public isn't looking for some new policies. Many though they'd get that from Donald, but he's proven to be in way over his head. I think many voters will be seeking someone who can actually get something done.
The mid-terms is probably a good guide.
(01-29-2019, 12:10 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]I have never paid much attention to Harris, but I have to say I am a little surprise just how extremely radical her ideas are.
hehe - you need to talk to people other than other white, middle-aged males.
(01-29-2019, 10:04 AM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-29-2019, 06:47 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]A moderate Democrat (without the incredible baggage Hillary Clinton carries around) could win the general election in a landslide. But the Dems don't look like they are going in that direction. They are lurching to the left and that will insure Trump's reelection.
Wait a minute. So many posters stated in the summer of 2016 that Hillary was just a clone of Obama, and Obama was a Kenyan-born Communist - and she won the popular vote.
Donald is the new Hillary. She had a base as well. Many, many people think Donald is a clown. And how are we so sure the Democratic nominee will be seen as some great Socialist demon. Sure, Fox will play that angle but don't be so sure the voting public isn't looking for some new policies. Many though they'd get that from Donald, but he's proven to be in way over his head. I think many voters will be seeking someone who can actually get something done.
The mid-terms is probably a good guide.
(01-29-2019, 12:10 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]I have never paid much attention to Harris, but I have to say I am a little surprise just how extremely radical her ideas are.
hehe - you need to talk to people other than other white, middle-aged males.
Since when have mid-terms EVER been a good guide to a presidential election?
(01-29-2019, 10:09 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-29-2019, 10:04 AM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ]Wait a minute. So many posters stated in the summer of 2016 that Hillary was just a clone of Obama, and Obama was a Kenyan-born Communist - and she won the popular vote.
Donald is the new Hillary. She had a base as well. Many, many people think Donald is a clown. And how are we so sure the Democratic nominee will be seen as some great Socialist demon. Sure, Fox will play that angle but don't be so sure the voting public isn't looking for some new policies. Many though they'd get that from Donald, but he's proven to be in way over his head. I think many voters will be seeking someone who can actually get something done.
The mid-terms is probably a good guide.
hehe - you need to talk to people other than other white, middle-aged males.
Since when have mid-terms EVER been a good guide to a presidential election?
It shows you which way the wind is blowing.
I understand why you're worried. The only "success" you bring up is the tax cut. You and the evangelicals can be bought but I wouldn't count on the entire voting public to be so mercenary. Think the mid-west farmers are thrilled with Donald right now? Will Donald get any under-65 non-evangelical women to vote for him?
And with another government shut-down and the Mueller Report to drive his poll numbers even lower I would not be surprised to see Donald bail in 2020. Those fairways are calling for him.
(01-28-2019, 01:37 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-28-2019, 09:55 AM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]Coming off the longest shutdown in government history, ultimately sort of resolved for now by Trump doing something he could have done weeks ago and with Trump threatening to take an unpopular move by declaring a hokey-pokey "national emergency" to fulfill a campaign promise?
Yeah, they're pissed. He's going to need more than 3% GDP to win re-election.
Pretty sure the Demo nominee will move more to the center once nominated. That's what usually happens.
What the Democrats have going for them is - Donald Trump. Trump won't have Hillary to run against. This time he'll be Hillary.
What's Trump going to run on? A tax cut no one seems to have benefited from (unless you're a CEO)? The economy might not look so rosy in 2020. Someone somewhere might actually care about the debt/deficit. Not the Trumpettes, but someone. What else will Donald be able to crow about? His agenda is going/has gone no where, and with a Democratically controlled House it's ain't going anywhere. And the Mueller Report will have been issued by then, I would think. You think that's going to make Donald look good. He'll look sleazy and/or stupid. Yeah, he really hires the best people.
The question will be - since Donald isn't even trying to widen his base - are there enough middle-age, middle-class, white men and those who watch Fox and are afraid of the Coming of Socialism and Immigrant Invasion to overcome everyone else? How many of the everyone else will vote?
(01-29-2019, 10:04 AM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-29-2019, 06:47 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]A moderate Democrat (without the incredible baggage Hillary Clinton carries around) could win the general election in a landslide. But the Dems don't look like they are going in that direction. They are lurching to the left and that will insure Trump's reelection.
Wait a minute. So many posters stated in the summer of 2016 that Hillary was just a clone of Obama, and Obama was a Kenyan-born Communist - and she won the popular vote.
Donald is the new Hillary. She had a base as well. Many, many people think Donald is a clown. And how are we so sure the Democratic nominee will be seen as some great Socialist demon. Sure, Fox will play that angle but don't be so sure the voting public isn't looking for some new policies. Many though they'd get that from Donald, but he's proven to be in way over his head. I think many voters will be seeking someone who can actually get something done.
The mid-terms is probably a good guide.
(01-29-2019, 12:10 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]I have never paid much attention to Harris, but I have to say I am a little surprise just how extremely radical her ideas are.
hehe - you need to talk to people other than other white, middle-aged males.
(01-29-2019, 01:58 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-29-2019, 10:09 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Since when have mid-terms EVER been a good guide to a presidential election?
It shows you which way the wind is blowing.
I understand why you're worried. The only "success" you bring up is the tax cut. You and the evangelicals can be bought but I wouldn't count on the entire voting public to be so mercenary. Think the mid-west farmers are thrilled with Donald right now? Will Donald get any under-65 non-evangelical women to vote for him?
And with another government shut-down and the Mueller Report to drive his poll numbers even lower I would not be surprised to see Donald bail in 2020. Those fairways are calling for him.
Use liberal racial stereotypes much?
By the way and for the record... my wife is a white under-65 non-evangelical woman and I am a middle-aged
non-white male. We both voted for President Trump and will likely vote for him again.
(01-29-2019, 01:58 PM)Adam2012 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-29-2019, 10:09 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Since when have mid-terms EVER been a good guide to a presidential election?
It shows you which way the wind is blowing.
I understand why you're worried. The only "success" you bring up is the tax cut. You and the evangelicals can be bought but I wouldn't count on the entire voting public to be so mercenary. Think the mid-west farmers are thrilled with Donald right now? Will Donald get any under-65 non-evangelical women to vote for him?
And with another government shut-down and the Mueller Report to drive his poll numbers even lower I would not be surprised to see Donald bail in 2020. Those fairways are calling for him.
No it doesn't. Donald Trump wasn't on the mid-term ballot. The party in power historically loses seats in the mid-term. It is no secret and doesn't "show you which way the wind is blowing".
(01-29-2019, 12:10 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]I have never paid much attention to Harris, but I have to say I am a little surprise just how extremely radical her ideas are.
"Bat-poo crazy" is an adequate term for the junior Senator from California.