Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Once again, crushing expectations. Go Trump!

Cue the "numbers don't mean what the numbers say they mean" crowd.

OR

"this is Obama's policies finally coming to fruition!"

That's with a govt. Shut down....

I work for architects and this seems to correlate to a spike in work we saw 12 to 24 months ago. We are getting fewer chances to bid on stuff now, and a lot of it is smaller and more tentative. I can't say for sure how soon that will correlate to a slowdown in GDP, but I have to think it will be in the next 12 months.

(04-26-2019, 01:33 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I work for architects and this seems to correlate to a spike in work we saw 12 to 24 months ago.  We are getting fewer chances to bid on stuff now, and a lot of it is smaller and more tentative.  I can't say for sure how soon that will correlate to a slowdown in GDP, but I have to think it will be in the next 12 months.

The momentum of the Obama era can only last so long.

(04-26-2019, 01:52 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 01:33 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I work for architects and this seems to correlate to a spike in work we saw 12 to 24 months ago.  We are getting fewer chances to bid on stuff now, and a lot of it is smaller and more tentative.  I can't say for sure how soon that will correlate to a slowdown in GDP, but I have to think it will be in the next 12 months.

The momentum of the Obama era can only last so long.

Typically 4-8 years depending on circumstances.

(04-26-2019, 01:52 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 01:33 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I work for architects and this seems to correlate to a spike in work we saw 12 to 24 months ago.  We are getting fewer chances to bid on stuff now, and a lot of it is smaller and more tentative.  I can't say for sure how soon that will correlate to a slowdown in GDP, but I have to think it will be in the next 12 months.

The momentum of the Obama era can only last so long.

It's foolish to blame anyone in the government for any of this kind of stuff.
Trump's tax cut made the growth phase we were in a little more intense in the short term, but every business cycle runs out of ideas and enthusiasm eventually.  Hopefully the downturn will be gentle with relatively low unemployment.

The government should be building a safety net such that people don't starve or get forced to live in their cars when the downturn hits.  But it shouldn't get blamed for the downs of the business cycle, nor should it get credit for the ups.

(04-26-2019, 02:11 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 01:52 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]The momentum of the Obama era can only last so long.

It's foolish to blame anyone in the government for any of this kind of stuff.
Trump's tax cut made the growth phase we were in a little more intense in the short term, but every business cycle runs out of ideas and enthusiasm eventually.  Hopefully the downturn will be gentle with relatively low unemployment.

The government should be building a safety net such that people don't starve or get forced to live in their cars when the downturn hits.  But it shouldn't get blamed for the downs of the business cycle, nor should it get credit for the ups.

Don't forget massive Obama era deregulation to remove the choke-hold from the throat of businesses, allowing them to thrive again.

So, the government should be using tax dollars to build a safety net for people capable of building their own safety net with the additional income they are receiving from the current economy? What does the government need to do in addition to what is is already doing?

(04-26-2019, 02:19 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 02:11 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]It's foolish to blame anyone in the government for any of this kind of stuff.
Trump's tax cut made the growth phase we were in a little more intense in the short term, but every business cycle runs out of ideas and enthusiasm eventually.  Hopefully the downturn will be gentle with relatively low unemployment.

The government should be building a safety net such that people don't starve or get forced to live in their cars when the downturn hits.  But it shouldn't get blamed for the downs of the business cycle, nor should it get credit for the ups.

Don't forget massive Obama era deregulation to remove the choke-hold from the throat of businesses, allowing them to thrive again.

So, the government should be using tax dollars to build a safety net for people capable of building their own safety net with the additional income they are receiving from the current economy? What does the government need to do in addition to what is is already doing?

We just need to make more government policy responsive to high levels of unemployment.  Our government already has a few elegant policies that ramp up as unemployment increases.
Of course unemployment insurance is one. then there is the EITC and Medicaid and Chip.  
Just make more policies responsive like these.  Perhaps an automatic cut to payroll taxes.  Perhaps an automatic delay in new work visas. Perhaps an automatic increase in military recruitment quotas. Maybe the number of weeks that unemployment benefits last gets longer when unemployment is high, and shorter when it is low. I think Vox had an article about it.

(04-26-2019, 02:33 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 02:19 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget massive Obama era deregulation to remove the choke-hold from the throat of businesses, allowing them to thrive again.

So, the government should be using tax dollars to build a safety net for people capable of building their own safety net with the additional income they are receiving from the current economy? What does the government need to do in addition to what is is already doing?

We just need to make more government policy responsive to high levels of unemployment.  Our government already has a few elegant policies that ramp up as unemployment increases.
Of course unemployment insurance is one. then there is the EITC and Medicaid and Chip.  
Just make more policies responsive like these.  Perhaps an automatic cut to payroll taxes.  Perhaps an automatic delay in new work visas. Perhaps an automatic increase in military recruitment quotas. Maybe the number of weeks that unemployment benefits last gets longer when unemployment is high, and shorter when it is low. I think Vox had an article about it.

So more government, more tax and spend, more regulation to throttle the economy. Brilliant!

(04-26-2019, 06:55 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 02:33 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]We just need to make more government policy responsive to high levels of unemployment.  Our government already has a few elegant policies that ramp up as unemployment increases.
Of course unemployment insurance is one. then there is the EITC and Medicaid and Chip.  
Just make more policies responsive like these.  Perhaps an automatic cut to payroll taxes.  Perhaps an automatic delay in new work visas. Perhaps an automatic increase in military recruitment quotas. Maybe the number of weeks that unemployment benefits last gets longer when unemployment is high, and shorter when it is low. I think Vox had an article about it.

So more government, more tax and spend, more regulation to throttle the economy. Brilliant!

I don't see where I said any of that but you're going to read what you want anyway.

(04-26-2019, 08:32 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 06:55 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]So more government, more tax and spend, more regulation to throttle the economy. Brilliant!

I don't see where I said any of that but you're going to read what you want anyway.

You propose more government on every line you wrote. You dont get what you want without also getting what I said.

(04-26-2019, 08:32 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 06:55 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]So more government, more tax and spend, more regulation to throttle the economy. Brilliant!

I don't see where I said any of that but you're going to read what you want anyway.

Come on now. Maybe give Vox a rest.

(04-26-2019, 10:03 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 08:32 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see where I said any of that but you're going to read what you want anyway.

You propose more government on every line you wrote. You dont get what you want without also getting what I said.

You see any change or tweak as "more".

(04-26-2019, 02:11 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 01:52 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]The momentum of the Obama era can only last so long.

It's foolish to blame anyone in the government for any of this kind of stuff.
Trump's tax cut made the growth phase we were in a little more intense in the short term, but every business cycle runs out of ideas and enthusiasm eventually.  Hopefully the downturn will be gentle with relatively low unemployment.

The government should be building a safety net such that people don't starve or get forced to live in their cars when the downturn hits.  But it shouldn't get blamed for the downs of the business cycle, nor should it get credit for the ups.

Just shaking my head...

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(04-26-2019, 02:33 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2019, 02:19 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget massive Obama era deregulation to remove the choke-hold from the throat of businesses, allowing them to thrive again.

So, the government should be using tax dollars to build a safety net for people capable of building their own safety net with the additional income they are receiving from the current economy? What does the government need to do in addition to what is is already doing?

We just need to make more government policy responsive to high levels of unemployment.  Our government already has a few elegant policies that ramp up as unemployment increases.
Of course unemployment insurance is one. then there is the EITC and Medicaid and Chip.  
Just make more policies responsive like these.  Perhaps an automatic cut to payroll taxes.  Perhaps an automatic delay in new work visas. Perhaps an automatic increase in military recruitment quotas. Maybe the number of weeks that unemployment benefits last gets longer when unemployment is high, and shorter when it is low. I think Vox had an article about it.

...  Yeh.  Maybe the school board in Chicago or the managing directors of the VA should get right on that!

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Most massive economic interventions lead to the two slowest recoveries from state generated recessions. But hey, it's just a little tweak.