Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=The%20Upshot

Click on Jaguars, and fill in the wins and losses.  Each win or loss changes the odds.

So, if we just win the next 6 games in a row, we're almost a lock. lol

At 3-4 the margin of error is +/- 3 games for any scenario to make it in the tournament.

If they win out in the division and drop games to say Jets, Falcons, and Chargers they are a 90% + lock to make it in.

Well we started 2017 W-L-W-L

We are doing the same this year but in doubles 

L-L-W-W-L-L-W

But I have some serious reservations with this team. Playoffs were my hope preseason, unless we turn red hot I fear were looking 5-11 or 6-10, but next season.....

We are 1 game out of wildcard. So if we want the playoffs we need to win the games we should win.we have alot of winnable games left. Just need to score in the redzone. Our offense is getting alot of yards just nothing to show for it.

Also turnovers and start with great Field instead of our 1.

Nyj
Tb
Oak
Ten
Indy split
Hou
Sd
Atl

I think we win the next two, not sure after the bye because whilst we have fared well in Indianapolis in recent years they seem to be on a hot streak right now and then I think we win a three more. We'll lose to Oakland because we can't win on the west coast, then beat Atlanta and round out be reversing the result of the Clots game after the bye to finish 10-6.

When you look at who is playing... this is a very young team. I have optimism for the future just not so much this year. Young teams give you up and downs. Yesterday it looked like they were going to take it to them and then we saw a fizzle. Credit for the defensive playing better assignment football. We were getting passed on but the players were in their spots and playing football.

We need to remember that as poorly as the team has played: 2 losses have been to likely playoff teams(Carolina and NO), 1 was to a the playoff-version of a team (KC), and 1 to a dangerous division team.

Even then 3 of those loses were by 1 score, and 2 by 1 play.

All of this, and this team has no where near reached its peak or played a perfect game yet. Everything is still to be decided for this team.

Thank you Marty, very cool!

Beat our division opponents and we'll be in. Three big games coming up vs our division win all 3 of those and I think were in.

I have an algorithm for them.

If Offensive Line = Jaguars Offensive Line
No playoffs

I see us realistically going 6-3 down the stretch. Now, will we is yet to be seen... But 9-7 is probably enough to get the 6th seed. Says in my scenario we have a 63% chance to make it.

W - Jets
L - Texans
L - @ Colts
W - @ Titans
W - Bucs
W - Chargers
W - @ Raiders
W - @ Falcons
L - Colts

Finish 9-7. Hopefully that would be enough in this weak AFC.
The Final game at home vs. the Colts could be a W, which would put us at 10-6 and in the playoffs.

We really need to play well in that stretch of 5/6 definitely winnable games.

(10-21-2019, 07:31 PM)High Octane Wrote: [ -> ]W - Jets
L - Texans
L - @ Colts
W - @ Titans
W - Bucs
W - Chargers
W - @ Raiders
W - @ Falcons
L - Colts

Finish 9-7. Hopefully that would be enough in this weak AFC.
The Final game at home vs. the Colts could be a W, which would put us at 10-6 and in the playoffs.

We really need to play well in that stretch of 5/6 definitely winnable games.

If we end up 2-4 in the division, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Counting both Chargers and Raiders as a win may be generous, I could see that being a split one way or the other.

(10-22-2019, 09:37 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-21-2019, 07:31 PM)High Octane Wrote: [ -> ]W - Jets
L - Texans
L - @ Colts
W - @ Titans
W - Bucs
W - Chargers
W - @ Raiders
W - @ Falcons
L - Colts

Finish 9-7. Hopefully that would be enough in this weak AFC.
The Final game at home vs. the Colts could be a W, which would put us at 10-6 and in the playoffs.

We really need to play well in that stretch of 5/6 definitely winnable games.

If we end up 2-4 in the division, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Counting both Chargers and Raiders as a win may be generous, I could see that being a split one way or the other.

"Deserve's got nothing to do with it."  William Munny

So I went through this simulator and picked every game for every week. Tried to be super honest with myself, across the Jags remaining games I gave them wins vs every team except the tinhorns and clots.

It came down to the Jets beating the Bills in week 17, which gives us the WC over the BIlls.
However, if in week 17 we beat the clots, the Bills can beat the Jets and we'll get the WC.

In this scenario the tinhorns win the AFCS
and there are 3 teams battling for two WC spots, Jags, Bills, clots.

I just hope the Bills hot start simmers down and perhaps I'm wrong about being swept by the clots and tinhorns (but I do have us sweeping the tacks for the first time in what seems like forever)

---

(10-21-2019, 07:31 PM)High Octane Wrote: [ -> ]W - Jets
L - Texans
L - @ Colts
W - @ Titans
W - Bucs
W - Chargers
W - @ Raiders
W - @ Falcons
L - Colts

Finish 9-7. Hopefully that would be enough in this weak AFC.
The Final game at home vs. the Colts could be a W, which would put us at 10-6 and in the playoffs.

We really need to play well in that stretch of 5/6 definitely winnable games.

This is the exact scenario I discuss above.
Playing out the entire NFLs games we would need the Jets to beat the Bills in week 17, because the Bills would then finish with the same record (and we get tie breakers)
Although somehow I have the Bills starting 9-1 and finishing 9-7 (woof) lol

--------------------

Picking just Jags games in the above scenario and letting their simulator run the rest of the NFL Jags have 42% chance of making playoffs (as a WC)

---------------------------
But if we split all divisional games our chances actually go down to 38%
Oops, if we split all divisional games our chances increase to 51% to make playoffs as WC and 37% to host WC (and a 97% total chance of making it)

Obligatory 

(10-22-2019, 11:09 AM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]So I went through this simulator and picked every game for every week. Tried to be super honest with myself, across the Jags remaining games I gave them wins vs every team except the tinhorns and clots.

It came down to the Jets beating the Bills in week 17, which gives us the WC over the BIlls.
However, if in week 17 we beat the clots, the Bills can beat the Jets and we'll get the WC.

In this scenario the tinhorns win the AFCS
and there are 3 teams battling for two WC spots, Jags, Bills, clots.

I just hope the Bills hot start simmers down and perhaps I'm wrong about being swept by the clots and tinhorns (but I do have us sweeping the tacks for the first time in what seems like forever)

---

(10-21-2019, 07:31 PM)High Octane Wrote: [ -> ]W - Jets
L - Texans
L - @ Colts
W - @ Titans
W - Bucs
W - Chargers
W - @ Raiders
W - @ Falcons
L - Colts

Finish 9-7. Hopefully that would be enough in this weak AFC.
The Final game at home vs. the Colts could be a W, which would put us at 10-6 and in the playoffs.

We really need to play well in that stretch of 5/6 definitely winnable games.

This is the exact scenario I discuss above.
Playing out the entire NFLs games we would need the Jets to beat the Bills in week 17, because the Bills would then finish with the same record (and we get tie breakers)
Although somehow I have the Bills starting 9-1 and finishing 9-7 (woof) lol

--------------------

Picking just Jags games in the above scenario and letting their simulator run the rest of the NFL Jags have 42% chance of making playoffs (as a WC)

---------------------------
But if we split all divisional games our chances actually go down to 38%
Oops, if we split all divisional games our chances increase to 51% to make playoffs as WC and 37% to host WC (and a 97% total chance of making it)

Realistically, the Jags have to beat the Texans. They can split with the Colts, but then really need to beat the Titans.

We're ahead of the Browns, Bears, Chargers, and Falcons. If you would have told me that in August I would have been super excited.