Going off dubious PFF grades and attempting to assess Blake's [shoddy] performance, there seems to be a somewhat common trend that I don't quite understand. I know PFF is at times suspect in its grading but it's all I really have to work with so please bear with me as I try to make sense of this and increase my understanding of the game.
Blake is traditionally very respectable when not pressured. This makes sense for any pro QB with any amount of talent.
Blake is traditionally awful when under pressure from just the front. This seems to be standard, although I feel Blake is an extreme case.
Blake traditionally struggles when he's not being blitzed. Confusing slightly, but I assume this is the direct result of the previous point.
Blake traditionally punishes blitzing defenses. This the most baffling to me although it still makes some sense as blitzing removes defenders from coverage making it easier to have an open receiver.
I am personally not ready to jump ship on Blake. He's in a major slump right now and has clearly lost confidence in himself. I think he'll pull through this eventually (hopefully). What I don't understand is what more can be done to get him to the point where he has respectable numbers against pressure from only the defensive front?
Is this something you can simulate in practice? What more could we be doing to alleviate this burden?
I think it's all just fundamental fixes for Blake.
Timing
Accuracy
More efficient mechanics
- when he plays with some semblance of those three things he does well.
Lately he's regressed in all three areas markedly.
I guess what I'm saying is that why aren't his numbers universally bad then no matter the defensive scheme? Timing, accuracy and proper/efficient mechanics are, as you said, fundamental aspects of a QB. One would think they'd just be a mess regardless of his situation, but instead...we generally see these issues arise under very specific circumstances (i.e. pressure from the front 4) and I guess that's what I don't quite understand.
To simplify: Why is he shredding blitzes if his timing, accuracy and mechanics are awful? Shouldn't we get the same result regardless?
Thanks for responding by the way, NYC. I knew you would and I appreciate all your insight.
I imagine Blake played a lot of Madden growing up, because when the game plan is akin to what I'd call in Madden he's a stud. Rolling out of the pocket and throwing it deep to A-Rob and Hurns, and 10 yard passes to Thomas. If I were Gus, I'd go as far as have a hurry up offense from the first drive of the game and let Bortles make the reads to see what the kid's got. I bet it'd go a lot better then what we're seeing in him. He works best impromptu and on the run if last year is anything to go by.
When he's got all day in the pocket, it's like he confuses himself and tries to force it to a receiver he's usually chucking it up to in the former situation. Maybe if they switch up the routes to give him something a little more obvious. I would say more crossing routes but the kid keeps throwing it behind the receiver on those lol.
There is nothing simple about this. No, we should not get the same result regardless of the game situation, defensive scheme, etc.
Quote:I guess what I'm saying is that why aren't his numbers universally bad then no matter the defensive scheme? Timing, accuracy and proper/efficient mechanics are, as you said, fundamental aspects of a QB. One would think they'd just be a mess regardless of his situation, but instead...we generally see these issues arise under very specific circumstances (i.e. pressure from the front 4) and I guess that's what I don't quite understand.
To simplify: Why is he shredding blitzes if his timing, accuracy and mechanics are awful? Shouldn't we get the same result regardless?
Thanks for responding by the way, NYC. I knew you would and I appreciate all your insight.
He "shreds" blitzes because it allows him to go YOLO and throw the ball deep.
Brunell was at his best vs the blitz as well, athough he rarely faced the kind of 4-man pressure that Blake is seeing. Our OL back then was far more dominant.
Quote:Brunell was at his best vs the blitz as well, athough he rarely faced the kind of 4-man pressure that Blake is seeing. Our OL back then was far more dominant.
We had the NFL's best left tackle. I miss those days.
Quote:I guess what I'm saying is that why aren't his numbers universally bad then no matter the defensive scheme? Timing, accuracy and proper/efficient mechanics are, as you said, fundamental aspects of a QB. One would think they'd just be a mess regardless of his situation, but instead...we generally see these issues arise under very specific circumstances (i.e. pressure from the front 4) and I guess that's what I don't quite understand.
To simplify: Why is he shredding blitzes if his timing, accuracy and mechanics are awful? Shouldn't we get the same result regardless?
Thanks for responding by the way, NYC. I knew you would and I appreciate all your insight.
One reason it fluctuates is that he's a pretty good improviser when he leaves the pocket and for some weird reason his throwing motion and accuracy are better when he's on the move. Hence all of those designed roll outs yesterday.
It kind of defies logic, but it's true.
His periods of poor decision making also affect/skew his situational stat line.
Keep in mind too that Blake's improvisation and ARob/Hurns ability to jump ball/yac resulted in many big plays. Problem is Blake isn't as accurate this season because his mechanics is a mess and they are taking away ARob's big play by having safety help on him (Baltimore went away with this a few times and look what Arob did when man-to-man).
Statistically, its pretty clear.
Bortles avg last season was 7.3, he's down to 6.6 this season.
Hurns is at 13.4 this season, and ARob is at 11.4.
Last season? Arob was a whopping 17.5 and Hurns at 16.1
Teams have essentially taken away the big plays from this offense, forcing us to be an efficient underneath offense, something we just haven't been in the Olson/Bortles era.
Quote:Keep in mind too that Blake's improvisation and ARob/Hurns ability to jump ball/yac resulted in many big plays. Problem is Blake isn't as accurate this season because his mechanics is a mess and they are taking away ARob's big play by having safety help on him (Baltimore went away with this a few times and look what Arob did when man-to-man).
Statistically, its pretty clear.
Bortles avg last season was 7.3, he's down to 6.6 this season.
Hurns is at 13.4 this season, and ARob is at 11.4.
Last season? Arob was a whopping 17.5 and Hurns at 16.1
Teams have essentially taken away the big plays from this offense, forcing us to be an efficient underneath offense, something we just haven't been in the Olson/Bortles era.
Great analysis
Quote:Teams have essentially taken away the big plays from this offense, forcing us to be an efficient underneath offense, something we just haven't been in the Olson/Bortles era.
Really good post.
Completely agree. Opponents aren't dumb. They see what the Jags offense was good at last season, and are game planning to take that away.
It's more difficult this year for Bortles and the Allens to go deeper and have jumpballs.
This is forcing Jax to try other areas of the game which they were not, and still not good at (short game and efficiency).
It's going to be tough sledding unless this offense can start:
- Protecting better (O-line)
- Running better (O-line)
- Accuracy better (Bortles)
Ok. This all makes a bit more sense now. Thanks!
That just puts even more onus on the O-line/running game to create some semblance of balance. I also think Blake probably needs to tuck it and run a few more times per game when there's nothing there (like that last sack he took yesterday...ugh, that play in particular is still bothering me like nobody's business).
They need to let Blake play backyard football that is when he's at his best. Maybe eventually he will become a good traditional pocket passer but right now they need to play to his strengths and that means letting him run around outside the pocket.