I fully know this will cause much disagreement, but here is my plan:
It will be vital for us to nail these first 4 picks: #9, #20, #42, #73. We need starters from each spot, and players that can hopefully instantly offer something to improve the teams immediate chances and also be long-term fixtures.
I will list the position we should target, the players in order of preference, and my reasoning.
#9 - WR (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs) - These 3 WRs are all elite prospects; it's not everyday you get a chance at an elite prospect at WR (basically never in FA, and usually only around the top 10 of the draft). Any one of these guys would instantly change the whole dynamic of our offense; defensive coordinators would have to pick their poison. Last year, after Chark emerged, opponents began to scheme him out of games and our whole offense really struggled as a result. Adding one of these guys would give us a really strong WR corp, and would open up so much in terms of game-planning. The counter-argument will be that this a deep WR class, and there will be many guys drafted after the top 3 who also turn into top WRs in the league. This is true, but after these three there are no guarantees. I honestly can't see how (barring unforseen mishaps) these 3 are not excellent WRs in this league for years to come.
#20 - OT (Wills, Becton, Wirfs, Thomas, Jones) - Realistically I expect this would end up being Josh Jones, which is slightly controversial, but I rate him just below that top 4 group. I believe all 5 would represent a significant upgrade at LT. Maybe not immediately, but long term (we pretty much know Cam is never going to be any more than average at best at this stage). This move would also allow Cam to go inside where he may well project as a better option long term anyway, hopefully improving two spots with one move, similar to Schobert allowing Jack to move to Will. Suddenly our O-Line and WRs both look like they could be the strongest parts of the team: Crucially, these first two picks have given Minshew the absolute best chance to build on his rookie season and develop into a franchise QB.
#42 - CB (Okudah and Henderson are obviously gone, leaving the Jags to pick their highest rated guy still available from Fulton, Gladney, Diggs, Terrell, Johnson, Igbinoghene, Arnette, Dantzler, Hall) - The biggest need on the team, and the value fits here to select a guy who can be a good CB in this league for a long time.
#73 - DT (Of course Brown and Kinlaw are gone, leaving the Jags to pick their highest rated guy still available from Blacklock, Madubuike, Davis, Davidson, Gallimore, Elliot, Fotu, Hamilton) - Another big need, and a postion where the Jags may try to move up to secure one of the higher rated prospects from that list.
So the obvious criticism of this draft is that, by not going defense early, we are going to have a terrible defense next year. The truth is, I think that is the case whatever we do in the draft; Derrick Brown and CJ Henderson are not going to suddenly elevate our defense back to being good. I think we take our lumps on defense this year, ride with the patches in FA and load up on options in the later rounds of the draft hoping to find players who could outperform draft position and become long-term contributors. Next year, when we will have a boat-load of cap money, we can start to fill those big holes on D, and hopefully put together a good unit.
The most important thing for me, is that this draft immediately turns our offense from a "maybe they will be OK" outlook to "they should be pretty good" outlook. Suddenly we have multiple options in the passing game, an OL that suddenly appears to be a team strength, and a good RB. Minshew suddenly has all the tools he needs to succeed, and if he does hallelujah! If he doesn't, we have the draft capital to replace him in 2021.
Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting this would suddenly make us a good team next year, but it could make us a good offense next year (albeit with some learning curve). The defense could then be emphasized in the 2021 offseason, and we should be set to make a push in that season.
* one caveat: obviously if a massively higher rated player falls (like Allen last year), I would pick him... E.g. Okudah at 9, Kinlaw at 20... Always gotta be flexible.
(03-27-2020, 01:50 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]I fully know this will cause much disagreement, but here is my plan:
It will be vital for us to nail these first 4 picks: #9, #20, #42, #73. We need starters from each spot, and players that can hopefully instantly offer something to improve the teams immediate chances and also be long-term fixtures.
I will list the position we should target, the players in order of preference, and my reasoning.
#9 - WR (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs) - These 3 WRs are all elite prospects; it's not everyday you get a chance at an elite prospect at WR (basically never in FA, and usually only around the top 10 of the draft). Any one of these guys would instantly change the whole dynamic of our offense; defensive coordinators would have to pick their poison. Last year, after Chark emerged, opponents began to scheme him out of games and our whole offense really struggled as a result. Adding one of these guys would give us a really strong WR corp, and would open up so much in terms of game-planning. The counter-argument will be that this a deep WR class, and there will be many guys drafted after the top 3 who also turn into top WRs in the league. This is true, but after these three there are no guarantees. I honestly can't see how (barring unforseen mishaps) these 3 are not excellent WRs in this league for years to come.
#20 - OT (Wills, Becton, Wirfs, Thomas, Jones) - Realistically I expect this would end up being Josh Jones, which is slightly controversial, but I rate him just below that top 4 group. I believe all 5 would represent a significant upgrade at LT. Maybe not immediately, but long term (we pretty much know Cam is never going to be any more than average at best at this stage). This move would also allow Cam to go inside where he may well project as a better option long term anyway, hopefully improving two spots with one move, similar to Schobert allowing Jack to move to Will. Suddenly our O-Line and WRs both look like they could be the strongest parts of the team: Crucially, these first two picks have given Minshew the absolute best chance to build on his rookie season and develop into a franchise QB.
#42 - CB (Okudah and Henderson are obviously gone, leaving the Jags to pick their highest rated guy still available from Fulton, Gladney, Diggs, Terrell, Johnson, Igbinoghene, Arnette, Dantzler, Hall) - The biggest need on the team, and the value fits here to select a guy who can be a good CB in this league for a long time.
#73 - DT (Of course Brown and Kinlaw are gone, leaving the Jags to pick their highest rated guy still available from Blacklock, Madubuike, Davis, Davidson, Gallimore, Elliot, Fotu, Hamilton) - Another big need, and a postion where the Jags may try to move up to secure one of the higher rated prospects from that list.
So the obvious criticism of this draft is that, by not going defense early, we are going to have a terrible defense next year. The truth is, I think that is the case whatever we do in the draft; Derrick Brown and CJ Henderson are not going to suddenly elevate our defense back to being good. I think we take our lumps on defense this year, ride with the patches in FA and load up on options in the later rounds of the draft hoping to find players who could outperform draft position and become long-term contributors. Next year, when we will have a boat-load of cap money, we can start to fill those big holes on D, and hopefully put together a good unit.
The most important thing for me, is that this draft immediately turns our offense from a "maybe they will be OK" outlook to "they should be pretty good" outlook. Suddenly we have multiple options in the passing game, an OL that suddenly appears to be a team strength, and a good RB. Minshew suddenly has all the tools he needs to succeed, and if he does hallelujah! If he doesn't, we have the draft capital to replace him in 2021.
Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting this would suddenly make us a good team next year, but it could make us a good offense next year (albeit with some learning curve). The defense could then be emphasized in the 2021 offseason, and we should be set to make a push in that season.
* one caveat: obviously if a massively higher rated player falls (like Allen last year), I would pick him... E.g. Okudah at 9, Kinlaw at 20... Always gotta be flexible.
This seems like a good plan. Free agency has focused on the defense so bolstering the offense in Round 1 cannot be ruled out. To go along with your offensive theme, I'd like to see them use some of their extra mid-round picks to move up to round 2 and take Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He would be a 3rd down back to begin and eventually replace Fournette as the starter in 2021-22. Although he didn't shine at the combine, I do believe he can become a "poor-man's" MJD.
I would personally flip the WR/OL order.
Grab one of the premier OL and then grab a top WR at 20 or later.
I would hope for:
#9: OL (Becton, Wirfs, Wills one is all but guaranteed to be there)
#20: CB (Hopefully Henderson is there...if not might go WR if one of Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs falls but this pick could go really any direction depending on who falls)
#42: DT (Blacklock would be main target as I doubt he makes it to 3rd round)
#73: WR (Deep class maybe someone like Gandy-Golden)
Really think whomever falls to #20 could really change the "need" direction...maybe Kinlaw falls, one of the WR, Henderson etc.
I like the idea, but to me you are backing yourself in a corner by saying draft a certain position before you even so who is off the board or who is available
I also dont think any of the WRs in this draft are elite. Some really good prospects but not elite. None are AJ Green, Julio Jones, Mike Evan's, Fitz, Calvin Johnson, or Justin Blackmon. Those were elite WR prospects imo
(03-27-2020, 03:20 PM)BlueEyedJag Wrote: [ -> ]I would personally flip the WR/OL order.
Grab one of the premier OL and then grab a top WR at 20 or later.
I would hope for:
#9: OL (Becton, Wirfs, Wills one is all but guaranteed to be there)
#20: CB (Hopefully Henderson is there...if not might go WR if one of Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs falls but this pick could go really any direction depending on who falls)
#42: DT (Blacklock would be main target as I doubt he makes it to 3rd round)
#73: WR (Deep class maybe someone like Gandy-Golden)
Really think whomever falls to #20 could really change the "need" direction...maybe Kinlaw falls, one of the WR, Henderson etc.
As much as I would like Brown or Kinlaw, if we decide to go a different route my next choice would be one of the top OTs like you say and then Henderson at 20
(03-27-2020, 03:55 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]I like the idea, but to me you are backing yourself in a corner by saying draft a certain position before you even so who is off the board or who is available
I also dont think any of the WRs in this draft are elite. Some really good prospects but not elite. None are AJ Green, Julio Jones, Mike Evan's, Fitz, Calvin Johnson, or Justin Blackmon. Those were elite WR prospects imo
To your first point, as I said in the original post, I would still be flexible if a player who was clearly from a higher tier was available. It wouldn't be locking in to a position, it's just identifying where value and need meets for position groups. Obviously there would need to be plans B, C and D if other players do fall to our pick.
As for the second point, I firmly disagree. I think both Jeudy and Lamb are elite prospects, and I think they are being somewhat overlooked in this draft process. Ruggs is a bit more of a projection due to less production, but honestly I'd be shocked if they don't all become excellent pro WRs.
(03-27-2020, 03:20 PM)BlueEyedJag Wrote: [ -> ]I would personally flip the WR/OL order.
Grab one of the premier OL and then grab a top WR at 20 or later.
I would hope for:
#9: OL (Becton, Wirfs, Wills one is all but guaranteed to be there)
#20: CB (Hopefully Henderson is there...if not might go WR if one of Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs falls but this pick could go really any direction depending on who falls)
#42: DT (Blacklock would be main target as I doubt he makes it to 3rd round)
#73: WR (Deep class maybe someone like Gandy-Golden)
Really think whomever falls to #20 could really change the "need" direction...maybe Kinlaw falls, one of the WR, Henderson etc.
As far as targeting needs per round, this makes a lot of sense.
Available value at each pic could flip a few of these around or push one down, but this makes sense.
(03-27-2020, 01:50 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]I fully know this will cause much disagreement, but here is my plan:
* one caveat: obviously if a massively higher rated player falls (like Allen last year), I would pick him... E.g. Okudah at 9, Kinlaw at 20... Always gotta be flexible.
You're right, I completely disagree with you. Going WR early is not a great idea, unless one of these guys is all-world, which none of them are.
Your caveat is right on, though.
I think Dave is going to be aggressive in the first round. Could easily see him trading up from 20 with all the extra ammo he has acquired. Could see it playing out like this:
1.9 - OL (hoping for Tristan Wirfs)
*trading 1.20, 3rd, and a 2021 pick to 1.15
1.15 - Henderson or one of the falling WRs
2.10 - WR or CB (depends on round 1)
Then we got 3 4th rounders where we could target DT, Edge, or BAP. I would love something like this:
1.9 - Tristan Wirfs OL
1.15 - Jerry Jeudy/Henry Ruggs/Ceedee Lamb WR
2 - Noah Igbinoghene/Trevon Diggs/AJ Terrell CB
4 - Benito Jones DT
4 - Alex Highsmith/Kenny Wilkes Edge
4 - Tanner Muse LB/SAF
To with the first two picks the Jags need to step outside the box and just go with the best difference makers on the board. Then with the rest of the draft fill in needs. Ideally, those difference makers will be at positions of need, but if not then so be it. I think Simmons should still be highest on their board until he's taken. If he's there at 9 take him. We don't have a Sam backer anyway and he can play it. If Ruggs, or JJ is there at 20 take one of them there. Just find the best difference makers with the first two picks. This team needs some exciting players. If we lose Yan then all we have on defense is Allen and Jack should be better at Will. Schoebert is above average at Mike and a good addition, but the team needs to focus on adding someone else in there to make this pop. Same thing on offense. What's going to make this pop? JJ, Lamb. Fill in the needs in round 2, ie, interior OL and Tackle.
Sounds good to me.
Is kind of wonder what the plan would be for Cam Robinson if we take a LT. Move to RG? Trade? Back up swing?
If they don’t like him at RG, then they need to fill that spot desperately and I think our starting RG slot should be filled within the top 3 rounds.
(03-28-2020, 04:53 PM)The_Franchise_QB Wrote: [ -> ]Sounds good to me.
Is kind of wonder what the plan would be for Cam Robinson if we take a LT. Move to RG? Trade? Back up swing?
If they don’t like him at RG, then they need to fill that spot desperately and I think our starting RG slot should be filled within the top 3 rounds.
Yeah, I think you have to try Cam at one of the guard spots to try and get value from that 2nd round pick.
Hard to think he wouldn't upgrade RG at least.
(03-27-2020, 09:04 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-27-2020, 01:50 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]I fully know this will cause much disagreement, but here is my plan:
* one caveat: obviously if a massively higher rated player falls (like Allen last year), I would pick him... E.g. Okudah at 9, Kinlaw at 20... Always gotta be flexible.
You're right, I completely disagree with you. Going WR early is not a great idea, unless one of these guys is all-world, which none of them are.
Your caveat is right on, though.
Double amen on that caveat. That's the true essence of BAP.
As others have said, makes more sense to either flip the OT/WR order in your draft, or if possible, trade back from 9 where one of the WR should be available and fits at a better value. This draft is immensely deep at WR, which kills some of the value for the top prospects.
Also not a fan of just throwing a position at the other spots -that's how you end up overdrafting a player just because they play a particular position.
(03-30-2020, 09:33 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]As others have said, makes more sense to either flip the OT/WR order in your draft, or if possible, trade back from 9 where one of the WR should be available and fits at a better value. This draft is immensely deep at WR, which kills some of the value for the top prospects.
Also not a fan of just throwing a position at the other spots -that's how you end up overdrafting a player just because they play a particular position.
This blueprint was for my idea of which direction we could go at the picks we have, so I kinda ignored the trade side of it. But I competely agree with the trade down idea. My post in another thread a couple weeks ago was suggesting actually that we trade down from 9 AND then trade up from 20. So we would end up with 2 picks around the 13/14/15/16 range, which would enable us to get a WR/OT or WR/DT or DT/OT combo of those top ranked players (who likely won't fall to 20). If they played it right, they could even get an extra pick or two out of it from the added cost of a team moving up to 9. At the very least they could come out net equal. Probably all a pipe dream though.
I also think the concept that the depth at WR means the top guys should fall is a bit flawed. It might play out that way a small bit, but make no mistake, there is a huge difference between the top 3 in this draft and the guys who might be available in the 3rd / 4th rounds. Players like Bryan Edwards, Van Jefferson, Gandy-Golden will be good value down there, but they are no where near the same value as the top guys... I think you could make a clear argument that if you don't get a WR with say our first 3 picks... then maybe you can wait and see which of that middle tier of WRs drops.
(03-30-2020, 11:19 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (03-30-2020, 09:33 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]As others have said, makes more sense to either flip the OT/WR order in your draft, or if possible, trade back from 9 where one of the WR should be available and fits at a better value. This draft is immensely deep at WR, which kills some of the value for the top prospects.
Also not a fan of just throwing a position at the other spots -that's how you end up overdrafting a player just because they play a particular position.
This blueprint was for my idea of which direction we could go at the picks we have, so I kinda ignored the trade side of it. But I competely agree with the trade down idea. My post in another thread a couple weeks ago was suggesting actually that we trade down from 9 AND then trade up from 20. So we would end up with 2 picks around the 13/14/15/16 range, which would enable us to get a WR/OT or WR/DT or DT/OT combo of those top ranked players (who likely won't fall to 20). If they played it right, they could even get an extra pick or two out of it from the added cost of a team moving up to 9. At the very least they could come out net equal. Probably all a pipe dream though.
I also think the concept that the depth at WR means the top guys should fall is a bit flawed. It might play out that way a small bit, but make no mistake, there is a huge difference between the top 3 in this draft and the guys who might be available in the 3rd / 4th rounds. Players like Bryan Edwards, Van Jefferson, Gandy-Golden will be good value down there, but they are no where near the same value as the top guys... I think you could make a clear argument that if you don't get a WR with say our first 3 picks... then maybe you can wait and see which of that middle tier of WRs drops.
I wasn't looking at 3rd/4th rounds necessarily, but more that some mocks have up to 6 WR going in the first. 20% of the entire round at WR. If you miss on Jeudy/Ruggs/Lamb, there's Jefferson/Shenault/Higgins/Mims still on the board. If it was Lamb only and then that second tier, teams looking for a top WR are going to fight to get the jump on other teams who want the same guy. The fact that there are 3 guys who consensus seems to be they all are top talents, and should go in the middle of the first means there's less need for desperation picks. Instead of taking one of the 3 at pick 9, we may have confidence that moving back to say, 14 would still allow us to get one of the three.
For the top 3 receivers, that lack of distinction at the top likely means that a team is not going to jump into the top ten to pick them. That's going to hurt them, from a financial perspective.
I think we should grab Juedy at 9
The Jets, Raiders, Broncos are vying for the top 3 receivers
Take one and some team before #20 might even reach for Aiyuk.
If you take Juedy then the value for picking WR earlier will go higher
We have a better chance than trading up for one.
Jeudy and trade up for whoever is available at OT or maybe Kinlaw will fall
We are good at WR if Minshew has just a little more time. Take Brown or Kinlaw and trade up for Thomas. Or take Thomas and trade up for Kinlaw
(04-03-2020, 07:07 PM)MojoKing Wrote: [ -> ]I think we should grab Juedy at 9
The Jets, Raiders, Broncos are vying for the top 3 receivers
Take one and some team before #20 might even reach for Aiyuk.
If you take Juedy then the value for picking WR earlier will go higher
We have a better chance than trading up for one.
Jeudy and trade up for whoever is available at OT or maybe Kinlaw will fall
I actually agree. The Jags need to skyrocket the talent level up at the skill positions on this team with the first two picks then fill in after that. I look at it this way, Indy has Rivers, Texans have Watson. We are not winning the division. Get the talent level up then fill in needs. If we get lucky and steal some games great. But the talent level needs to go way up on this team. At 9 I would be looking at the following:
1. Simmons if he falls there.
2. Lamb or Juedy
3. Okudah if he falls there
4. Trading out of the spot
5. I'd think about taking Kinlaw here as well as Brown
(04-05-2020, 08:19 AM)JAllen#41 Wrote: [ -> ]1. Simmons if he falls there.
2. Lamb or Juedy
3. Okudah if he falls there
4. Trading out of the spot
5. I'd think about taking Kinlaw here as well as Brown
Skill players can be found later in the draft and decent patches (see Eifert, Tyler) can be found in 2021 free agency if anything's missing. But the trenches are harder to build later in the draft and far more costly in free agency. The trenches must be fortified early in the draft. We need at minimum a strong LT and a young, distruptive DT in the first two rounds.
If Okudah falls at #9, that's the only exception for taking a non-trench player. I wouldn't even take Simmons if he fell. I want Wirfs or Thomas at #9 now if there's no Okudah.