Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Anyone have any kind of data on sophomore slumps?

Particularly for QB's that started their rookie years?

Theres alot of questioning if Minshew is the right QB or not. It got me to thinking about sophomore slumps and i was curious if its a common thing for a qb that started his rookie year or not.

Which brings up another question, if Minshew does have a bad year, could it be wrote off to sophomore slumps and him be given another year? Or do you think we target one in the draft?
I feel like Minshew has showed plenty that he is capable, its just a matter of if hes capable to be a starter or a really good backup.

FWIW - Andy Dalton played his freshman and sophomore NFL seasons in a Gruden offense and his numbers were:

Rookie:
3400 yd - 20TDs - 13 INT -  9-7 record

Sophomore year:
3670 yds - 27 TDs - 16 INT  - 10-6 record

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Also - the only 2019 rookies that seem eligible for slumps would be Taylor, Allen, and Minshew and frankly none of those guys seem poised for such a downturn. (other rookies had injuries and/or low snap counts) 

  * I think Minshew progresses but has a few tough games against the better defenses that force him to throw from the pocket. I think he eclipses 4300 yds passing and throws 25+ TDs and takes the fumbles down to 6 or 7 total. 

 * I think Taylor takes a moderate step forward but gets humbled by a handful of speed rushers sprinkled throughout the year. 

*  I think Allen has a very productive year getting after QBs and shows some solid versatility against the run.

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There is some evidence out there  that shows QBs who perform well as rookies often take a downturn in year two. 

I'm remaining optimistic about Minshew not falling into that category, but we can't know until it happens.

10 Worst Sophomore Slumps

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659...fl-history


Best Sophomore Seasons

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699...fl-history

I don't have data right now regarding sophomore slumps for QBs, but here is my take on some people's "concerns" about it as it pertains to Gardner.

In a well run organization with good support he would be given another year if he has a sophomore slump. Though, if he has one with the Jags, I don't think he will get that much leeway. It may largely depend on where they would pick in next year's draft and how big the slump is.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a nice year with the Jags. I believe that Minshew can play. I think that he has shown that he can be a starter in this league. He may have started out as a backup but that doesn't mean, he can't be a starter. A lot of talented QB's start out as backups.I think that a lot of people just can't let go where he was drafted and they are honed into drafting Trevor Lawrence. Some people including some Jags fans, will not fully accept Minshew being the starter as long as Trevor is out there.

Some people should just say, short of Minshew taking the Jags to the Super Bowl, they want Trevor Lawrence. (And a Jags fan on Twitter actually said they didn't care if Gardner won the Super Bowl, they still wanted Trevor Lawrence). At least that would be honest, instead of IMO some of this disingenuous speculation/worry about Gardner's ability to be a starting QB on this team. When I think that some people just want Trevor Lawrence or maybe Justin Fields, regardless of how Gardner ends up performing. And should just say that, if that's how they feel.

If some people are that worried about Gardner not performing well, and if he doesn't, then the Jags will be in a position to draft Trevor or Justin anyways. I honestly think some people that keep "questioning" Minshew's ability are more afraid he's going to perform well or at least good enough to keep the team from drafting Trevor. And that's a big reason why the keep "worrying" about him. He had a nice rookie season with things to build on and is continuing to work very hard to improve himself. He could become even better and grow as a QB this upcoming season.

Granted, I do acknowledge that some people have legitimate concerns about him and the Jags team overall. They have legitimate concerns about the tougher schedule, him not having the best protection, etc... but some of this other stuff feels disingenuous and is coming from people that continue to doubt Gardner/really want Trevor Lawrence, don't like the Jags, etc...

(05-28-2020, 09:13 AM)mal234 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't have data right now regarding sophomore slumps for QBs, but here is my take on some people's "concerns" about it as it pertains to Gardner.

In a well run organization with good support he would be given another year if he has a sophomore slump. Though, if he has one with the Jags, I don't think he will get that much leeway. It may largely depend on where they would pick in next year's draft and how big the slump is.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a nice year with the Jags. I believe that Minshew can play. I think that he has shown that he can be a starter in this league. He may have started out as a backup but that doesn't mean, he can't be a starter. A lot of talented QB's start out as backups.I think that a lot of people just can't let go where he was drafted and they are honed into drafting Trevor Lawrence. Some people including some Jags fans, will not fully accept Minshew being the starter as long as Trevor is out there.

Some people should just say, short of Minshew taking the Jags to the Super Bowl, they want Trevor Lawrence. (And a Jags fan on Twitter actually said they didn't care if Gardner won the Super Bowl, they still wanted Trevor Lawrence). At least that would be honest, instead of IMO some of this disingenuous speculation/worry about Gardner's ability to be a starting QB on this team. When I think that some people just want Trevor Lawrence or maybe Justin Fields, regardless of how Gardner ends up performing. And should just say that, if that's how they feel.

If some people are that worried about Gardner not performing well, and if he doesn't, then the Jags will be in a position to draft Trevor or Justin anyways. I honestly think some people that keep questioning Minshew's ability are more afraid he's going to perform well or at least good enough to keep the team from drafting Trevor. And that's a big reason why the keep "worrying" about him, even though he had a nice rookie season and is continuing to work very hard to improve himself. Some people have legitimate concerns about him and the Jags team overall. They have legitimate concerns about the tougher schedule, him not having the best protection, etc... but some of this other stuff feels disingenious, and is coming from people that continue to doubt Gardner/really want Trevor Lawrence, don't like the Jags, etc...

I'm a huge Minshew fan and hope he thrives in this new offense. I guess honestly my biggest concern is the Jags turning away from him too soon. I feel like he needs to be given a fair chance. Is 2 years enough of a chance? I dunno. At the same time i gotta be realistic. Defenses have got to see his tendencies, even in a new scheme under a new o cord he will still tend to do the things he done before. Time will tell i suppose.

Regardless ill be sporting my Minshew jersey and trimming my beard into the Minshew stache when the season starts!

(05-28-2020, 09:08 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

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There is some evidence out there  that shows QBs who perform well as rookies often take a downturn in year two. 

I'm remaining optimistic about Minshew not falling into that category, but we can't know until it happens.

Need to see breakdown of who those QBs are. Maybe the overall average of good freshman qbs dropped in the second year. But were those that dropped the most the one year wonders and guys who sustained in year 2 the ones with longterm success?

I had also mentioned this in the other thread about Gruden's offense, but Gardner will be meeting with the media today at 11:45 and it will be streamed live. For those of us that like Gardner/are rooting for him, it will be nice to hear more about what he's been up to/plans to do to become better as a QB.

Also a little while ago Jim Nagy was talking about how Gardner and QB Country who has been training with him, are expecting him to have a big sophomore year. They've been speaking very well of his work effort. Here's hoping that is the case. The last couple of years, we've seen young QB's explode, have great sophomore years, like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. I'm not saying Gardner is on their talent level, but it would be nice if he did a have a good sophomore season.

Personally the slump is hit and miss. As I noted on a few other threads, I think Minshew had a major slump in the 2nd half of the season.

(05-28-2020, 10:38 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]Personally the slump is hit and miss.  As I noted on a few other threads, I think Minshew had a major slump in the 2nd half of the season.

Good. Hopefully he got that out of his system.

Looks like sometimes they do and sometimes they don't.

(05-28-2020, 09:09 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]10 Worst Sophomore Slumps

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659...fl-history


Best Sophomore Seasons

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699...fl-history

That article is from Summer of 2013 so it isn't taking into consideration the 2013-2019 seasons....


For example, Jameis Winston was about on par his sophomore season compared to his rookie year. But he slumped greatly in years 3 and 4 (and 5 if you count how bad his INTs were, and they were).
Mariota actually was much better his sophomore season compared to his freshman year, throwing for more yards and TDs and 1 fewer INTs.

Baker Mayfield slumped big time from year 1 to 2. He threw for about the same yards but fewer TDs and more INTs (in more starts).

Goff didn't play much as a rookie but improved from what we did see immensely and that improvement upticked once more in year 3. Though he took a bit of a dip in year 4.

I think the sophomore slump is more pronounced when a rookie comes in and is great right away. We tend to talk about a "slump" when teams have more tape and can figure out how to attack a guy they didn't have much knowledge on the year before.
In Minshew's case, as magical as he was at times, he wasn't really great most of the year. He made the most out of a bad situation with a lot of mess around him (being a rookie, not preparing to be starter, no TE, OL a bit of a mess, etc) I think teams quickly figured out how to attack our offense last year.
This year, it'll be a new offense, built around his skill sets and he's a year removed from being green.

What I'm getting at is I suspect that we'll see more of a gradual increase in productivity rather than a sophomore slump. Because honestly, if he slumps from where he was (as promising as it was) that means he'll be bad, not average. And we'll certainly be looking at a QB early next draft.

My Sophomore season prediction for Minshew is 32 TDs 8 INTs [And I'll say way down on fumbles like only 4-5, with maybe 2-3 lost, compared to 13-7 last season] 4k yards. Which is a slight improvement in all stats with 2 more games played (*4 additional starts).
I mean technically the 8 INTs isn't an improvement but only a slight uptick with more starts so we'll call it a wash there.

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Here's a great article about the sophomore slump done by Harvard students.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2019/12...n-the-nfl/

(05-28-2020, 02:22 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-28-2020, 09:09 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]10 Worst Sophomore Slumps

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659...fl-history


Best Sophomore Seasons

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699...fl-history

That article is from Summer of 2013 so it isn't taking into consideration the 2013-2019 seasons....


For example, Jameis Winston was about on par his sophomore season compared to his rookie year. But he slumped greatly in years 3 and 4 (and 5 if you count how bad his INTs were, and they were).
Mariota actually was much better his sophomore season compared to his freshman year, throwing for more yards and TDs and 1 fewer INTs.

Baker Mayfield slumped big time from year 1 to 2. He threw for about the same yards but fewer TDs and more INTs (in more starts).

Goff didn't play much as a rookie but improved from what we did see immensely and that improvement upticked once more in year 3. Though he took a bit of a dip in year 4.

I think the sophomore slump is more pronounced when a rookie comes in and is great right away. We tend to talk about a "slump" when teams have more tape and can figure out how to attack a guy they didn't have much knowledge on the year before.
In Minshew's case, as magical as he was at times, he wasn't really great most of the year. He made the most out of a bad situation with a lot of mess around him (being a rookie, not preparing to be starter, no TE, OL a bit of a mess, etc) I think teams quickly figured out how to attack our offense last year.
This year, it'll be a new offense, built around his skill sets and he's a year removed from being green.

What I'm getting at is I suspect that we'll see more of a gradual increase in productivity rather than a sophomore slump. Because honestly, if he slumps from where he was (as promising as it was) that means he'll be bad, not average. And we'll certainly be looking at a QB early next draft.

My Sophomore season prediction for Minshew is 32 TDs 8 INTs [And I'll say way down on fumbles like only 4-5, with maybe 2-3 lost, compared to 13-7 last season] 4k yards. Which is a slight improvement in all stats with 2 more games played (*4 additional starts).
I mean technically the 8 INTs isn't an improvement but only a slight uptick with more starts so we'll call it a wash there.

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Here's a great article about the sophomore slump done by Harvard students.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2019/12...n-the-nfl/

I respect your opinion, but i guess we will just have to agree to disagree on the subject of how his season went.

When i look at Minshews season and the adversity he went through with being thrown in the fire the first game of the season after just a few plays, with a playbook not built for him at all, losing the majority of options at tightend, the lack of protection he had from the line and even the lack of time he had to gel with the offense. One man can only do so much and i feel like he nearly peaked that. Yes he made some mistakes, yes he could of done better. But the dude single handedly made the team watchable. Its really hard to put up many more stats than that if you dont have the weapons and skilled players around to make everything work. 

But as to your point about the sophomore slumps being the case of teams having more tape and knowing how to counter it, thats where my worry lies. I understand we are starting a whole new offensive scheme and i really hope its built around the strengths of players rather than trying to force players to change their game play. What if the scheme is [BLEEP] and the team in general plays like crap? Minshews ceiling is only going to be so high based off what he has around him. And honestly with the damage this front office has caused, it makes me question how much effort and heart some of these guys may have coming into the season. Theres a big difference between playing hard and giving it your all.  


Thats why i ask about him being given another year if his numbers drop or do we think the team will turn towards drafting another QB early on?