Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(10-17-2020, 08:37 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 07:58 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]It funny how your whole perspective is based on a source you know is wrong.

What source are you referring to that I know is wrong?

C'mon now, we both know the polling is biased.

(10-17-2020, 08:41 AM)SStroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 08:37 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]What source are you referring to that I know is wrong?

Maybe looking at polls that got it right in 2016 would be a good start?

And what polls do you recommend?

(10-17-2020, 10:18 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 08:41 AM)SStroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe looking at polls that got it right in 2016 would be a good start?

And what polls do you recommend?

https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

(10-17-2020, 10:26 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 10:18 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]And what polls do you recommend?

https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

Trafalgar has some interesting methods.  They ask the respondent how they intend to vote, then they ask how they think their neighbor is going to vote, and make an adjustment based on that response.  

They were just about the only pollster to get Michigan correct in 2016.  On the other hand, in the 2018 Georgia governor's race, they had Kemp leading Abrams by 12%, when Kemp actually won by 1%.  

What you are relying on is that this one pollster will be right this time again, and all the others will be wrong, and that all the others made no change to their methods as a result of the 2016 results.  Plus, what Trafalgar is predicting is a very close Trump victory in the electoral college.  So you're kind of drawing to an inside straight there.  

One other thing you have to think about is that in 2016, there were a lot more undecided voters, and they made a late break toward Trump.  This time, there are not that many undecided voters.  

But- I will admit that there is a possibility that the polls are all wrong.

And also, a note about the "enthusiasm gap."  It is true that Trump voters are much more enthusiastic about Trump than Biden voters are about Biden.  But on the other hand, Biden voters have a BURNING HATRED of Trump, and that makes them very enthusiastic about voting.

(10-17-2020, 10:26 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 10:18 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]And what polls do you recommend?

https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

I go by the signs in my area. Yesterday, I went to pick up my groceries from Walmart which is approximately 11 miles away. I counted the political signs on the way there. Keep in mind I live in rural Ohio. The final tally was 33 Trump signs and 2 Biden signs. Keep in mind the store I went to was in a college town (Oxford, Ohio) and it was much the same thing. Still a bunch of Trump signs and no Biden signs which I found surprising, given the area. I took a ride around Southeastern Indiana a couple of weeks ago, just to get out of the house and it was much the same thing. There were tons of Trump signs and barely any for Biden. It was probably like a 10-1 ratio.

(10-17-2020, 03:58 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 10:26 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

I go by the signs in my area. Yesterday, I went to pick up my groceries from Walmart which is approximately 11 miles away. I counted the political signs on the way there. Keep in mind I live in rural Ohio. The final tally was 33 Trump signs and 2 Biden signs. Keep in mind the store I went to was in a college town (Oxford, Ohio) and it was much the same thing. Still a bunch of Trump signs and no Biden signs which I found surprising, given the area. I took a ride around Southeastern Indiana a couple of weeks ago, just to get out of the house and it was much the same thing. There were tons of Trump signs and barely any for Biden. It was probably like a 10-1 ratio.

I drove through rural Georgia twice in the last week, mostly on US 1, and it is almost 100% Trump signs.  But rural Georgia went 90% for Trump in 2016, so that isn't surprising.

(10-17-2020, 03:58 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 10:26 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

I go by the signs in my area. Yesterday, I went to pick up my groceries from Walmart which is approximately 11 miles away. I counted the political signs on the way there. Keep in mind I live in rural Ohio. The final tally was 33 Trump signs and 2 Biden signs. Keep in mind the store I went to was in a college town (Oxford, Ohio) and it was much the same thing. Still a bunch of Trump signs and no Biden signs which I found surprising, given the area. I took a ride around Southeastern Indiana a couple of weeks ago, just to get out of the house and it was much the same thing. There were tons of Trump signs and barely any for Biden. It was probably like a 10-1 ratio.

Enthusiasm has never been a problem for Trump.

Trump voters are voting for Trump.
Biden voters are voting against Trump.

I think that explains the sign disparity.

(10-17-2020, 05:32 PM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Trump voters are voting for Trump.
Biden voters are voting against Trump.

I think that explains the sign disparity.

Where is that dang like button?

(10-17-2020, 03:58 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 10:26 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

I go by the signs in my area. Yesterday, I went to pick up my groceries from Walmart which is approximately 11 miles away. I counted the political signs on the way there. Keep in mind I live in rural Ohio. The final tally was 33 Trump signs and 2 Biden signs. Keep in mind the store I went to was in a college town (Oxford, Ohio) and it was much the same thing. Still a bunch of Trump signs and no Biden signs which I found surprising, given the area. I took a ride around Southeastern Indiana a couple of weeks ago, just to get out of the house and it was much the same thing. There were tons of Trump signs and barely any for Biden. It was probably like a 10-1 ratio.

When I go out to my property on the weekends I notice the same thing.  There is only one home that has a small Biden sign (about the size of a typical real estate sign).  There are several huge (4' x 8' plywood size or bigger) signs for Trump/Pence all along the road.  Also many homes fly not only our Flag, but also Trump/Pence flags in their yards.

What is interesting to me is that my initial thought of the Biden sign when I first saw it was that it would be full of bullet holes before long (it's a VERY rural area).  It actually doesn't appear to have been ever touched.  That says a lot about President Trump supporters vs. Biden supporters.  I have seen many stories about President Trump signs being taken down or vandalized.  I can't recall a single story about a Biden sign being touched.

Despite what the "polling data" might indicate, I really wouldn't be surprised if President Trump repeats the sweep that President Reagan did.

(10-17-2020, 06:24 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 03:58 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]I go by the signs in my area. Yesterday, I went to pick up my groceries from Walmart which is approximately 11 miles away. I counted the political signs on the way there. Keep in mind I live in rural Ohio. The final tally was 33 Trump signs and 2 Biden signs. Keep in mind the store I went to was in a college town (Oxford, Ohio) and it was much the same thing. Still a bunch of Trump signs and no Biden signs which I found surprising, given the area. I took a ride around Southeastern Indiana a couple of weeks ago, just to get out of the house and it was much the same thing. There were tons of Trump signs and barely any for Biden. It was probably like a 10-1 ratio.

When I go out to my property on the weekends I notice the same thing.  There is only one home that has a small Biden sign (about the size of a typical real estate sign).  There are several huge (4' x 8' plywood size or bigger) signs for Trump/Pence all along the road.  Also many homes fly not only our Flag, but also Trump/Pence flags in their yards.

What is interesting to me is that my initial thought of the Biden sign when I first saw it was that it would be full of bullet holes before long (it's a VERY rural area).  It actually doesn't appear to have been ever touched.  That says a lot about President Trump supporters vs. Biden supporters.  I have seen many stories about President Trump signs being taken down or vandalized.  I can't recall a single story about a Biden sign being touched.

Despite what the "polling data" might indicate, I really wouldn't be surprised if President Trump repeats the sweep that President Reagan did.

I’m not so sure. Biden voters are subdued because he’s not their ideal candidate. They just want Trump gone.

‘We Are Not Ahead by Double Digits,’ Biden Campaign Manager Reportedly Admits Polls Inflated

The Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign manager reportedly admitted that the national public polling numbers, which show Biden overwhelmingly leading President Donald Trump, are inflated.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/we...SQvlI?v=ul

(10-17-2020, 07:51 PM)The Drifter Wrote: [ -> ]‘We Are Not Ahead by Double Digits,’ Biden Campaign Manager Reportedly Admits Polls Inflated

The Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign manager reportedly admitted that the national public polling numbers, which show Biden overwhelmingly leading President Donald Trump, are inflated.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/we...SQvlI?v=ul

Really wouldn't be surprised if Trump is the one who's really up by double digits right now. I have a feeling that we're about to see a red wave.. People have had it with these crooked career politicians.

I have never been less sure of an election outcome than this year. I'm not sure we're even going to make it through this without massive violence.

(10-17-2020, 08:03 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I have never been less sure of an election outcome than this year. I'm not sure we're even going to make it through this without massive violence.

My brother says the same thing but I don't see it. We might have some flare ups from the usual left wing rabble rousers if Trump wins, but nothing sustained. I feel sorry for the business owners who are going to take the brunt of it. Looting will not only be encouraged, but justified.

(10-17-2020, 08:03 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I have never been less sure of an election outcome than this year. I'm not sure we're even going to make it through this without massive violence.

If there is any increase in violence, it will be from the leftist DemocRATS

What happens if Democrats win swing states and there seems to be shenanigans involved? What if Donald Trump won't concede until it gets resolved? What if they get power and prosecute Donald Trump? I fear the right becoming violent, because that's when things will escalate. Like I said, I'm not saying this will happen, but it's definitely the first time in my life that I've been concerned about it.

(10-17-2020, 10:56 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]What happens if Democrats win swing states and there seems to be shenanigans involved? What if Donald Trump won't concede until it gets resolved? What if they get power and prosecute Donald Trump? I fear the right becoming violent, because that's when things will escalate. Like I said, I'm not saying this will happen, but it's definitely the first time in my life that I've been concerned about it.

I see violence on the horizon, no matter who wins.

(10-17-2020, 10:56 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]What happens if Democrats win swing states and there seems to be shenanigans involved? What if Donald Trump won't concede until it gets resolved? What if they get power and prosecute Donald Trump? I fear the right becoming violent, because that's when things will escalate. Like I said, I'm not saying this will happen, but it's definitely the first time in my life that I've been concerned about it.

I would be much more concerned about Trump winning. The leftist liberals already said through WaPo if Biden doesn't win by a landslide they're going to light the country up. Sadly no links to support it anymore. 

I can see the right being pissed if Biden wins but they have been the silent majority for the most part so far.

(10-18-2020, 12:32 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-17-2020, 10:56 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]What happens if Democrats win swing states and there seems to be shenanigans involved? What if Donald Trump won't concede until it gets resolved? What if they get power and prosecute Donald Trump? I fear the right becoming violent, because that's when things will escalate. Like I said, I'm not saying this will happen, but it's definitely the first time in my life that I've been concerned about it.

I see violence on the horizon, no matter who wins.

Of course, leftists won't just disappear if Beijing Biden wins. They'll keep on rioting no matter who is in office. This is their moment, and they won't let 100 years of effort to destroy America go to waste.