Still kicking around the idea of possibly trading up from 25, two things dawned on me:
1. The Jets have many of the same needs the Jaguars have and have the same interests-supporting their new QB. In many cases, we'd be competing for the same players at the same positions.
2. They have more draft capital over the next two years than we have due to the Adams trade (comparable to the Ramsey deal only a year later) and the Darnold trade, which gives the Jets a 2 and a 4 next year.
I think if there is a team in the teens willing to move back, I'm not sure if we'd win a bidding war against the Jets for that pick, especially considering their second first round pick is two picks above ours. At this point, my thought is if a trade up into the teens is to occur, it would have to be with either New England or Miami-divisional rivals of the Jets who may not be inclined to trade with them.
I almost started its own thread on this, but I think we should really try to trade back up into the 3rd or real early 4th. I was skimming sirius on a drive yesterday and whoever the hosts were laid out a convincing analytical argument for doing it. Basically, there is a point in most drafts around picks 115-125 where the hit rates fall off a cliff. Sure you still get your Telvin's occasionally, but it's far more rare. They advocated for trying to trade your 5th rounders and later for players like Calais or Peters like the Ravens did, or for trading up into the top of the 4th or higher.
It wouldn't shock me if we could trade some combination of 130, 145, 170, and 249 to get back up into the 80s or 90s and get another quality day 2 pick.
(04-06-2021, 03:29 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]I almost started its own thread on this, but I think we should really try to trade back up into the 3rd or real early 4th. I was skimming sirius on a drive yesterday and whoever the hosts were laid out a convincing analytical argument for doing it. Basically, there is a point in most drafts around picks 115-125 where the hit rates fall off a cliff. Sure you still get your Telvin's occasionally, but it's far more rare. They advocated for trying to trade your 5th rounders and later for players like Calais or Peters like the Ravens did, or for trading up into the top of the 4th or higher.
It wouldn't shock me if we could trade some combination of 130, 145, 170, and 249 to get back up into the 80s or 90s and get another quality day 2 pick.
It wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for this team to pick up an extra 3rd round pick.
It also would not surprise me to see the team trade a 4th round pick or later for a veteran TE like Njoku if the draft doesn't net them the TE they want by round 3.
(04-06-2021, 03:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (04-06-2021, 03:29 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]I almost started its own thread on this, but I think we should really try to trade back up into the 3rd or real early 4th. I was skimming sirius on a drive yesterday and whoever the hosts were laid out a convincing analytical argument for doing it. Basically, there is a point in most drafts around picks 115-125 where the hit rates fall off a cliff. Sure you still get your Telvin's occasionally, but it's far more rare. They advocated for trying to trade your 5th rounders and later for players like Calais or Peters like the Ravens did, or for trading up into the top of the 4th or higher.
It wouldn't shock me if we could trade some combination of 130, 145, 170, and 249 to get back up into the 80s or 90s and get another quality day 2 pick.
It wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for this team to pick up an extra 3rd round pick.
It also would not surprise me to see the team trade a 4th round pick or later for a veteran TE like Njoku if the draft doesn't net them the TE they want by round 3.
Something like 130 and 170 to get up to 90ish and then 145 and 249 to get Njoku would be a very wise way to use our late picks IMO.
(04-06-2021, 03:45 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ] (04-06-2021, 03:33 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]It wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for this team to pick up an extra 3rd round pick.
It also would not surprise me to see the team trade a 4th round pick or later for a veteran TE like Njoku if the draft doesn't net them the TE they want by round 3.
Something like 130 and 170 to get up to 90ish and then 145 and 249 to get Njoku would be a very wise way to use our late picks IMO.
Agreed.
Looking at it further, we seem to have the advantage over the Jets when it comes to picks this year, even though numerically we have the same number of picks.
We both have two first round picks, but we have two second round picks while the Jets have one. We have one 3rd round pick while the Jets have two. We have two 4th rounders while the Jets have one. Both the Jets and Jaguars have two 5th round picks. Thanks to the Darnold trade, the Jets have two 6th round picks this year while the Jaguars have none. The Jaguars have one 7th round pick.
So we would have more early round capital to trade up if needed. The Jets advantage would come in the later rounds (3rd and 6th) and with next year's picks.
It would seem to lend itself to making the bigger move in the first round, while the Jets would seem to have the edge in smaller trades in the second round or later.