04-29-2021, 10:28 AM
One of the great lines in history is "The sun never sets on the British empire." It was so prolific, so successful, so vast, that it was virtually true. From Hong Kong in the Far East to the U.S. and Canada in the west, it was typically daytime at least somewhere in the British Empire. Eventually that empire would shrink, but not before the British were enriched by their exploits abroad. Now as hopeful as I am, I am not presumptuous enough to suggest the Jaguars' drafting of Trevor Lawrence would make us the modern NFL equivalent of the British empire. But if we draft Trevor Lawrence, and he is everything that most observers believe, it could minimally herald better days ahead for this team because we should be better at personnel.
As you know, player acquisition and retention are the lifeblood of any football team. If you look back at the Jaguars' paltry W-L record since 2000, you'd see a direct correlation between poor drafting and player retention and the poor results. So why would Lawrence change that? While there is certainly no guarantee he his presence alone changes that, I submit his presence potentially improves the performance of the FO in three ways.
The most obvious way is we're not blowing draft capital chasing after QBs. QB is the most important position in sports and probably the hardest to find. I don't blame them for aggressively pursuing that position. But what if they didn't have to? What if they could place their focus on positions that were easier to evaluate and easier to fill? Imagine if, instead of drafting BL in 2003, the team gets one of the all time great pass rushers in Terrell Suggs. How much better would the team have been had they managed to trade back and get a guy like Troy Polamalu? This dynamic was repeated some eight years later when we traded up to draft Blaine Gabbert in a first round that featured J.J. Watt, Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Pouncey and Nate Solder. The Jaguars chased a QB again in 2014 with Blake Bortles, resulting in passing up guys like Khalil Mack, Mike Evans and taylor Lewan. Counting the trade up for Gabbert, that's three first round picks and a 2nd round pick expended on one position we didn't successfully fill, compounded by the great positional players we didn't take with those picks because we were chasing QBs. If Trevor Lawrence is as expected, that dynamic ends for the foreseeable future.
Secondly, we'll have a better grasp of what we actually do have on the roster. For instance assuming QB is solved, we will likely see Chark's true potential realized. We can see what he can do with a strong armed, accurate QB who makes good decisions throwing him the football. With a more accurate understanding of what we have on the roster, we can adjust the team's focus accordingly. Instead off spinning our wheels pursuing players at positions we really don't need to address, we could address other areas, making our team stronger.
TL should also help with player retention. It was speculated that one of the reasons we lost WR Allen Robinson was that we didn't have a good QB and he wanted to play with a better one. Whether true or not, that reasoning disappears if we have a pro bowler getting him the ball. If players like Chark can better realize their potential, they may be more apt to stay here. If they think they have a shot at one day winning a Super Bowl here because the most important position has been filled with a stud, maybe a guy like Ramsey or Ngakoue would be more open to staying. Maybe instead of trading away a guy like Calais Campbell, we keep him around another year or two and he retires a Jaguar.
Finally, TL will help with free agency. The flip side to the paragraph above is that the Jaguars will be more attractive to free agents from other clubs. Many players would not even consider playing for the Jaguars before because we had no shot at winning. But if TL is the generational QB observers seem to think, suddenly, Jacksonville is a viable destination. Suddenly, Jacksonville is a higher profile team that looks to be possible contenders for years to come. The team is on nationally televise games far more frequently than the token one national game a year we currently get. People will want to be a part of this. With a bigger talent pool of potential targets, the smarter choices our FO are able to make.
None of this is guaranteed. TL's presence does not guarantee that the FO gets other picks right, nor does he absolve them from the responsibility for doing so. But if TL is the real deal, he makes drafting, player retention, and free agency better for us. This will lead to more success than we've had in a long time. The days of Jaguars as pushover will be over soon.
The dawn of a new Jaguar order beckons. Break out your shades, Jaguars fans.
The future is bright!
As you know, player acquisition and retention are the lifeblood of any football team. If you look back at the Jaguars' paltry W-L record since 2000, you'd see a direct correlation between poor drafting and player retention and the poor results. So why would Lawrence change that? While there is certainly no guarantee he his presence alone changes that, I submit his presence potentially improves the performance of the FO in three ways.
The most obvious way is we're not blowing draft capital chasing after QBs. QB is the most important position in sports and probably the hardest to find. I don't blame them for aggressively pursuing that position. But what if they didn't have to? What if they could place their focus on positions that were easier to evaluate and easier to fill? Imagine if, instead of drafting BL in 2003, the team gets one of the all time great pass rushers in Terrell Suggs. How much better would the team have been had they managed to trade back and get a guy like Troy Polamalu? This dynamic was repeated some eight years later when we traded up to draft Blaine Gabbert in a first round that featured J.J. Watt, Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Pouncey and Nate Solder. The Jaguars chased a QB again in 2014 with Blake Bortles, resulting in passing up guys like Khalil Mack, Mike Evans and taylor Lewan. Counting the trade up for Gabbert, that's three first round picks and a 2nd round pick expended on one position we didn't successfully fill, compounded by the great positional players we didn't take with those picks because we were chasing QBs. If Trevor Lawrence is as expected, that dynamic ends for the foreseeable future.
Secondly, we'll have a better grasp of what we actually do have on the roster. For instance assuming QB is solved, we will likely see Chark's true potential realized. We can see what he can do with a strong armed, accurate QB who makes good decisions throwing him the football. With a more accurate understanding of what we have on the roster, we can adjust the team's focus accordingly. Instead off spinning our wheels pursuing players at positions we really don't need to address, we could address other areas, making our team stronger.
TL should also help with player retention. It was speculated that one of the reasons we lost WR Allen Robinson was that we didn't have a good QB and he wanted to play with a better one. Whether true or not, that reasoning disappears if we have a pro bowler getting him the ball. If players like Chark can better realize their potential, they may be more apt to stay here. If they think they have a shot at one day winning a Super Bowl here because the most important position has been filled with a stud, maybe a guy like Ramsey or Ngakoue would be more open to staying. Maybe instead of trading away a guy like Calais Campbell, we keep him around another year or two and he retires a Jaguar.
Finally, TL will help with free agency. The flip side to the paragraph above is that the Jaguars will be more attractive to free agents from other clubs. Many players would not even consider playing for the Jaguars before because we had no shot at winning. But if TL is the generational QB observers seem to think, suddenly, Jacksonville is a viable destination. Suddenly, Jacksonville is a higher profile team that looks to be possible contenders for years to come. The team is on nationally televise games far more frequently than the token one national game a year we currently get. People will want to be a part of this. With a bigger talent pool of potential targets, the smarter choices our FO are able to make.
None of this is guaranteed. TL's presence does not guarantee that the FO gets other picks right, nor does he absolve them from the responsibility for doing so. But if TL is the real deal, he makes drafting, player retention, and free agency better for us. This will lead to more success than we've had in a long time. The days of Jaguars as pushover will be over soon.
The dawn of a new Jaguar order beckons. Break out your shades, Jaguars fans.
The future is bright!
.gif "Laughing")