(07-10-2021, 12:12 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 02:01 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ](Emphasis added)
So numbers akin to say, Reggie Bush his rookie year, could render him "valuable?"
Reggie Bush Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Or perhaps Christian McCaffrey?
Christian McCaffrey Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
I have to think somewhere between Bush and Kamara is what UM and co are thinking with the Etienne pick.
Alvin Kamara Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Note: I just saw Seldom Rites expectation of 11 YPC for Etienne. However, I have noticed that none of the above mentioned backs reached that mark, despite two of those backs being drafted in the top ten.
Is there any reason for that 11 ypc standard?
To the bolded, there isn't, I just expect a guy they plan to line up wide a lot to have more yards per catch than a running back who doesn't line up outside often. Not to mention people here are arguing he's going to somehow make defenses pay attention to him, and yet not produce good stats that an undrafted guy got last year.
Either he's going to be a guy that makes explosive plays and is in the game a lot to take advantage of the defense keying on him, or he's going to be a terrible draft pick that doesn't make explosive plays and who gets some not very meaningful stats while not really putting any fear into defensive coordinators.
...
Please explain the bolded/red text.
Why is there this giant expanse of impossible outcomes between the the opposing poles you have described?
Why boom or bust? Why not something falling along that HUGE spectrum in between?
(07-10-2021, 01:48 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 12:12 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]To the bolded, there isn't, I just expect a guy they plan to line up wide a lot to have more yards per catch than a running back who doesn't line up outside often. Not to mention people here are arguing he's going to somehow make defenses pay attention to him, and yet not produce good stats that an undrafted guy got last year.
Either he's going to be a guy that makes explosive plays and is in the game a lot to take advantage of the defense keying on him, or he's going to be a terrible draft pick that doesn't make explosive plays and who gets some not very meaningful stats while not really putting any fear into defensive coordinators.
...
Please explain the bolded/red text.
Why is there this giant expanse of impossible outcomes between the the opposing poles you have described?
Why boom or bust? Why not something falling along that HUGE spectrum in between?
I keep saying why, I think if he's actually great at making explosive plays he'll get decent stats this season. If he's not then his stats might still be decent, but I think he'll be a bad draft pick and won't put fear into defensive coordinators.
Do you think there's going to be defensive coordinators up all night on Saturday thinking about how to stop him from getting 70 yards on 20 carries with someone running him down from behind on the off chance he manages to get past the linebackers?
(07-10-2021, 12:12 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 02:01 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ](Emphasis added)
So numbers akin to say, Reggie Bush his rookie year, could render him "valuable?"
Reggie Bush Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Or perhaps Christian McCaffrey?
Christian McCaffrey Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
I have to think somewhere between Bush and Kamara is what UM and co are thinking with the Etienne pick.
Alvin Kamara Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Note: I just saw Seldom Rites expectation of 11 YPC for Etienne. However, I have noticed that none of the above mentioned backs reached that mark, despite two of those backs being drafted in the top ten.
Is there any reason for that 11 ypc standard?
To the bolded, there isn't, I just expect a guy they plan to line up wide a lot to have more yards per catch than a running back who doesn't line up outside often. Not to mention people here are arguing he's going to somehow make defenses pay attention to him, and yet not produce good stats that an undrafted guy got last year.
Either he's going to be a guy that makes explosive plays and is in the game a lot to take advantage of the defense keying on him, or he's going to be a terrible draft pick that doesn't make explosive plays and who gets some not very meaningful stats while not really putting any fear into defensive coordinators.
I actually think it's more likely to be the latter, as I don't see him as a special prospect (though we'll see) but others seem to think he'll somehow cause defensive coordinators headaches while also not producing. Seems like a really ridiculous belief to hold, but it is what it is. I just think if he's actually a good player then he'll produce like one. He's a running back, he should at least get plenty of chances to show what he can do from that position this year, and running backs generally produce far earlier in their careers than guys that play other positions.
Understood generally.
My thing is none of the backs I referenced above hit your standard of 11 ypc, but all three are/were unquestionably weapons, potential matchup problems for opposing defensive coordinators and big play players.
This takes me back to exactly how Etienne will be utilized, and one of the negative concerns I had about the Etienne pick. If he is utilized like a receiving back, chances are, the perception will be his production will not likely to be viewed as worth the pick.
(07-10-2021, 02:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 12:12 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]To the bolded, there isn't, I just expect a guy they plan to line up wide a lot to have more yards per catch than a running back who doesn't line up outside often. Not to mention people here are arguing he's going to somehow make defenses pay attention to him, and yet not produce good stats that an undrafted guy got last year.
Either he's going to be a guy that makes explosive plays and is in the game a lot to take advantage of the defense keying on him, or he's going to be a terrible draft pick that doesn't make explosive plays and who gets some not very meaningful stats while not really putting any fear into defensive coordinators.
I actually think it's more likely to be the latter, as I don't see him as a special prospect (though we'll see) but others seem to think he'll somehow cause defensive coordinators headaches while also not producing. Seems like a really ridiculous belief to hold, but it is what it is. I just think if he's actually a good player then he'll produce like one. He's a running back, he should at least get plenty of chances to show what he can do from that position this year, and running backs generally produce far earlier in their careers than guys that play other positions.
Understood generally.
My thing is none of the backs I referenced above hit your standard of 11 ypc, but all three are/were unquestionably weapons, potential matchup problems for opposing defensive coordinators and big play players.
This takes me back to exactly how Etienne will be utilized, and one of the negative concerns I had about the Etienne pick. If he is utilized like a receiving back, chances are, the perception will be his production will not likely to be viewed as worth the pick.
Alvin Kamara had 81 receptions and 10.2 ypc as a rookie. Clearly it's possible for a running back to produce in the passing game given the chance. However, worrying about the specifics of my numbers is the wrong takeaway. My point was if he's actually good we'll see it in the stats in addition to seeing it when we watch him play. I doubt he'll be a guy where we say he's good, but then fans of other teams point out he only got 900 combined yards on the season and 5 TDs. If he's good, he'll put up decent numbers, I'm sure.
(07-10-2021, 01:59 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 01:48 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Please explain the bolded/red text.
Why is there this giant expanse of impossible outcomes between the the opposing poles you have described?
Why boom or bust? Why not something falling along that HUGE spectrum in between?
I keep saying why, I think if he's actually great at making explosive plays he'll get decent stats this season. If he's not then his stats might still be decent, but I think he'll be a bad draft pick and won't put fear into defensive coordinators.
Do you think there's going to be defensive coordinators up all night on Saturday thinking about how to stop him from getting 70 yards on 20 carries with someone running him down from behind on the off chance he manages to get past the linebackers?
No - I think that if he breaks off enough chunk yardage plays early in the season, then he becomes an element coordinators will have to consider while scheming against an offense that will likely already provide challenges for them.
Coordinators don't simply look at production to determine how to match up with an offense.
You hear the phrase "limit explosive plays" constantly from the mouths of DC's for good reason.
If weeks one through four include 3 "explosive plays" from Etienne, then the week five opponent is going to look at the tape, determine which formations vs which coverages Etienne had success from and seek to counter that. All the while having to consider Robinson, Chark, Shenault and Jones.
Etienne's impact could be significant without big production numbers and it's not that tough to see why.
Not 70 yds on 20 carries that you suggest.
That's not his role.
It's 50-80 yds on 8-10 touches with one of them being an explosive play that will get coordinators attention.
(07-10-2021, 02:09 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 01:59 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]I keep saying why, I think if he's actually great at making explosive plays he'll get decent stats this season. If he's not then his stats might still be decent, but I think he'll be a bad draft pick and won't put fear into defensive coordinators.
Do you think there's going to be defensive coordinators up all night on Saturday thinking about how to stop him from getting 70 yards on 20 carries with someone running him down from behind on the off chance he manages to get past the linebackers?
No - I think that if he breaks off enough chunk yardage plays early in the season, then he becomes an element coordinators will have to consider while scheming against an offense that will likely already provide challenges for them.
Coordinators don't simply look at production to determine how to match up with an offense.
You hear the phrase "limit explosive plays" constantly from the mouths of DC's for good reason.
If weeks one through four include 3 "explosive plays" from Etienne, then the week five opponent is going to look at the tape, determine which formations vs which coverages Etienne had success from and seek to counter that. All the while having to consider Robinson, Chark, Shenault and Jones.
Etienne's impact could be significant without big production numbers and it's not that trough to see why.
Not 70 yds on 20 carries that you suggest.
That's not his role.
It's 50-80 yds on 8-10 touches with one of them being an explosive play that will get coordinators attention.
The only part I disagree on is that I think if he's able to get explosive plays then he'll keep getting them, and it'll mean he'll have much more yardage. I also want to say, I think 50 ypg is unrealistically low for someone that was taken in the first round and is breaking off explosive plays. If he's getting 50 ypg then he's probably not getting any explosive (20+ yard) plays, because I expect he'll get 10-15 touches per game between the rush and the pass, and I expect if he's any good to be able to get 4+ yards per rush without 20+ yarders. and 7 or 8 yards per catch without any long ones.
(07-10-2021, 02:19 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 02:09 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]No - I think that if he breaks off enough chunk yardage plays early in the season, then he becomes an element coordinators will have to consider while scheming against an offense that will likely already provide challenges for them.
Coordinators don't simply look at production to determine how to match up with an offense.
You hear the phrase "limit explosive plays" constantly from the mouths of DC's for good reason.
If weeks one through four include 3 "explosive plays" from Etienne, then the week five opponent is going to look at the tape, determine which formations vs which coverages Etienne had success from and seek to counter that. All the while having to consider Robinson, Chark, Shenault and Jones.
Etienne's impact could be significant without big production numbers and it's not that trough to see why.
Not 70 yds on 20 carries that you suggest.
That's not his role.
It's 50-80 yds on 8-10 touches with one of them being an explosive play that will get coordinators attention.
The only part I disagree on is that I think if he's able to get explosive plays then he'll keep getting them, and it'll mean he'll have much more yardage. I also want to say, I think 50 ypg is unrealistically low for someone that was taken in the first round and is breaking off explosive plays. If he's getting 50 ypg then he's probably not getting any explosive (20+ yard) plays, because I expect he'll get 10-15 touches per game between the rush and the pass, and I expect if he's any good to be able to get 4+ yards per rush without 20+ yarders. and 7 or 8 yards per catch without any long ones.
If Meyer/Bevell are smart they will spread the ball between Robinson, Shenault and Chark enough that they will not need to go to the well repeatedly with Etienne. And they've described his role enough publicly to hint at this type of usage. Very conceivable that he sees 10 touches or less in some games if/when the other irons are hot.
Also - I didn't say 50 yards per game. I said 50-
80 yards per game anticipating that it will fluctuate due to gameplan and those chunk yardage plays which may not happen every week for him.
Bottom line: He could have a huge impact and only record 900 APY and 6 TDs on the season.
(07-10-2021, 02:09 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 01:59 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]I keep saying why, I think if he's actually great at making explosive plays he'll get decent stats this season. If he's not then his stats might still be decent, but I think he'll be a bad draft pick and won't put fear into defensive coordinators.
Do you think there's going to be defensive coordinators up all night on Saturday thinking about how to stop him from getting 70 yards on 20 carries with someone running him down from behind on the off chance he manages to get past the linebackers?
No - I think that if he breaks off enough chunk yardage plays early in the season, then he becomes an element coordinators will have to consider while scheming against an offense that will likely already provide challenges for them.
Coordinators don't simply look at production to determine how to match up with an offense.
You hear the phrase "limit explosive plays" constantly from the mouths of DC's for good reason.
If weeks one through four include 3 "explosive plays" from Etienne, then the week five opponent is going to look at the tape, determine which formations vs which coverages Etienne had success from and seek to counter that. All the while having to consider Robinson, Chark, Shenault and Jones.
Etienne's impact could be significant without big production numbers and it's not that tough to see why.
Not 70 yds on 20 carries that you suggest.
That's not his role.
It's 50-80 yds on 8-10 touches with one of them being an explosive play that will get coordinators attention.
We are thinking along the same lines.
I believe one of the best things that could happen for us this season is for Etienne to take a screen pass 40 yards or more for a score against a blitzing defense im the first 2-3 weeks of the season, especially against Houston. Immediately it would demonstrate that TL is capable of beating a blitz, and that Etienne is capable of the big play.
If it'll make coordinators more hesitant and less aggressive...less apt to blitz our rookie QB behind a shaky O-line, that's a win for TL and the team as a whole.
(07-10-2021, 02:28 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 02:19 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]The only part I disagree on is that I think if he's able to get explosive plays then he'll keep getting them, and it'll mean he'll have much more yardage. I also want to say, I think 50 ypg is unrealistically low for someone that was taken in the first round and is breaking off explosive plays. If he's getting 50 ypg then he's probably not getting any explosive (20+ yard) plays, because I expect he'll get 10-15 touches per game between the rush and the pass, and I expect if he's any good to be able to get 4+ yards per rush without 20+ yarders. and 7 or 8 yards per catch without any long ones.
If Meyer/Bevell are smart they will spread the ball between Robinson, Shenault and Chark enough that they will not need to go to the well repeatedly with Etienne. And they've described his role enough publicly to hint at this type of usage. Very conceivable that he sees 10 touches or less in some games if/when the other irons are hot.
Also - I didn't say 50 yards per game. I said 50-80 yards per game anticipating that it will fluctuate due to gameplan and those chunk yardage plays which may not happen every week for him.
Bottom line: He could have a huge impact and only record 900 APY and 6 TDs on the season.
I'm sure they will, but they already said they want to be a run first team, so if they're running the ball 35+ times a game then there should be plenty to go around. Not to mention it's hard to resist giving the ball to someone that breaks off big plays.
It's like the old quote Vic always cites from Ron Erhardt to Merrill Hoge when Hoge complained he wasn't getting enough carries: "OK, so when I want to gain 3.8 yards I'll give the ball to you and when I want to gain 4.5 yards I'll give it to Barry Foster."
If Etienne is actually a great player I think they'll give him more touches regardless of what they're saying right now.
(07-10-2021, 02:58 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 02:28 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]If Meyer/Bevell are smart they will spread the ball between Robinson, Shenault and Chark enough that they will not need to go to the well repeatedly with Etienne. And they've described his role enough publicly to hint at this type of usage. Very conceivable that he sees 10 touches or less in some games if/when the other irons are hot.
Also - I didn't say 50 yards per game. I said 50-80 yards per game anticipating that it will fluctuate due to gameplan and those chunk yardage plays which may not happen every week for him.
Bottom line: He could have a huge impact and only record 900 APY and 6 TDs on the season.
I'm sure they will, but they already said they want to be a run first team, so if they're running the ball 35+ times a game then there should be plenty to go around. Not to mention it's hard to resist giving the ball to someone that breaks off big plays.
It's like the old quote Vic always cites from Ron Erhardt to Merrill Hoge when Hoge complained he wasn't getting enough carries: "OK, so when I want to gain 3.8 yards I'll give the ball to you and when I want to gain 4.5 yards I'll give it to Barry Foster."
If Etienne is actually a great player I think they'll give him more touches regardless of what they're saying right now.
It's hard to predict how good a college player will be at rushing the ball in the NFL. Some great college rushers are mediocre in the NFL and some mediocre college rushers are great.
One thing I feel confident in Etienne is that he will be a YAC defensive nightmare if allowed to get the ball in open space.
(07-10-2021, 02:07 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2021, 02:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Understood generally.
My thing is none of the backs I referenced above hit your standard of 11 ypc, but all three are/were unquestionably weapons, potential matchup problems for opposing defensive coordinators and big play players.
This takes me back to exactly how Etienne will be utilized, and one of the negative concerns I had about the Etienne pick. If he is utilized like a receiving back, chances are, the perception will be his production will not likely to be viewed as worth the pick.
Alvin Kamara had 81 receptions and 10.2 ypc as a rookie. Clearly it's possible for a running back to produce in the passing game given the chance. However, worrying about the specifics of my numbers is the wrong takeaway. My point was if he's actually good we'll see it in the stats in addition to seeing it when we watch him play. I doubt he'll be a guy where we say he's good, but then fans of other teams point out he only got 900 combined yards on the season and 5 TDs. If he's good, he'll put up decent numbers, I'm sure.
That was with an all time great playcaller at head coach, an experienced Hall of Famer at QB, a solid OL and weapons all around. Even with that, his average never reached 11 and fell off below 10 immediately after.
My thing is, if he is being utilized as a receiving back, it'll serve to suppress his stats because his touches would tend to be limited both in rushing and receiving. Chances are, neither his rushing total or his receving total will look eye popping at first blush, even though his impact during a game could be considerable. It may not have any reflection or whether he is great as a player or not. All three of the other guys I mentioned are/were weapons. But if you looked at their general position (RB), their rushing totals and YPC without seeing how they are utilized, you might underestimate their true impact on a game.
It may be possible that the historical/traditional use of RBs has set a paradigm that does not fit the way receiving backs are utilized. However, receiving backs utilized like the ones in this discussion are still somewhat of a novelty, such that no paradigm or statistical benchmark exists for them. For example, the minimum standard of effectiveness for RBs had traditionally been 1000 yards and 4 YPC. On rare occasions, there have been backs who have eclipsed 1000 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving in the same season, but I don't think that is an established performance standard for receiving backs.