(02-04-2022, 04:52 AM)Black and Teal Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t know if it’s possible, I doubt it. But trading down is probably the best move for the franchise. Any scenarios?
1. Aidan Hutchinson destroys the combine and drives his stock up
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux destroys the combine and drives his stock up
3. Malik Willis, spending all week with the Lions coaching staff, builds a strong pitch at the Senior Bowl (maybe the Lions gives us a second to move up and insure Willis).
I usually do a thread or two on this very topic every year. I was planning to do one a little later, once the coaches were named and free agency went underway, but I've already been kicking some things around, so I might as well give it a shot now.
Generally, i don't think this is a strng year to trade down from the #1 overall spot, since there doesn't appear to be the can't miss QB prospect going into this draft. None of the guys are as good as last April's class. In fact, thinking about it more, I don't think any of these guys would seem to rate as favorably as the top two guys in the 2015 draft class (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota). I am hoping guys like Pickett and Willis have great offseasons and rocket up the draft boards between now and the draft to maximize the demand for our pick. But I don't necessarily see that happening. That said, let's examine the draft order, needs, draft capital, and possible trade up targets of the top dozen picks.
1. Jacksonville
2. Detroit, Needs QB, WR, Edge. They have two first round picks this year#2 overall and the Rams (either 31 or 32 overall depending on the Super Bowl, and they will have two first rounders next year, their own and the Rams, due to the Matt Stafford trade. However, since they have so much draft capital the next two years, since they are picking second if they do nothing, since they know we already took TL, and since there doesn't appear to be that stud QB at the top of the draft, the odds of them trading up one spot are virtually nil.
3. Houston texans-Needs arguably QB, OL, WR, DL, LB, DB. For the first time in a long time, the Texans currently have the standard allotment of picks because Bill O'Brien's disastrous trades finally exhausted themselves. They could end up getting a boatload of picks if they can pull off a trade of Deshaun Watson, but depending on what happens with these sexual assault allegations, the big payoff might not come until 2023, if at all. Since they are within the division, and since they are only two picks down, I don't see them trading with us, either.
4. New York Jets-Needs: WR, OL, TE, DB, Edge. They have lots of draft capital, thanks to the Jamal Adams trade to Seattle, they have the #4 and #10 picks, and they have two 2nd round picks, #35 and #38. Having drafted a QB #2 overall last spring, they have many of the same needs as we have. Traditionally, they have been a team that trades up in the draft. But I don't see them doing so at least at the top of this draft. They may be more likely to trade back up into the bottom or even middle of the first round from the 2nd round.
5. N.Y. Giants--Needs: possibly QB, OL, Edge rusher. Thanks to last year's trade down with Chicago for QB justin Fields, the Giants have lots of draft capital this year, with picks 5 and 7 in the first round. If you are talking about teams possibly trading with the Jaguars for the top spot, here is where things start to get interesting. It's rare that team owners are involved in blowing draft smoke, especially at this time of year, but they have a new coach and new GM. When new coaches and new GMs come aboard, they usually want their guy at QB, which means despite Mara's representations, at this point, I think there's a decent shot they move on from Daniel Jones. If a QB rises up the draft board into the top 5 status, they may need to move up over Detroit and maybe Houston to get that guy. Besides QB, their other two positions of big need are OL (T specifically) and Edge rusher. If you look at most draft boards/mock drafts at this stage, the guys at the top of these boards and drafts are T Evan Neal and edge rushers Thibideaux and Hutchinson. It would make sense for them to stand pat and take an edge rusher like Karlaftsis (if they run a 4-3) and a T like the kid from NC State or Charles Cross, if they want a specific guy, this is about the spot where they may need to consider moving up to to get him.
6. Carolina-Needs: QB, OL. Carolina Carlina's defense is pretty decently stocked. They are pretty strong along the defensive line with a good DT in Derek Brown and good edge rushers. Even if former Jaguar CJ Henderson continues to go AWOL, they are decent in the secondary at least for the moment, having gotten former Patriot Stephon Gilmore and S Jeremy Chinn. What they lack is on offense. Their owner is obsessed with getting a franchise signal caller. If they don't acquire a vet like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or DeShaun Watson, they will need to draft one. It's possible a guy like Wison or Pickett would fit nicely in at 6, but the danger for Carolina is that QB is typically a high demand position, and if they are relying on the draft to get one early, they may have to move up ahead of Detroit, Houston, or NYG to get one. Same holds true for LT. The problem for Carolina is that thanks to disastrous trades for Sam Darnold and Henderson, they have no draft capital this year, with no picks in the 2nd or 3rd round. That might keep them from making a trade for one of the other veteran QBs. If anything, I could see them trying to move down to recoup some of that drsft capital.
8. Atlanta-Needs: QB, WR, Edge. I think of the teams in the top ten, Atlanta represents one of the strongest possibilities for the Jaguars to trade back. Atlanta finished dead last in sacks by a wide margin, not even reaching 20 sacks in 17 games. The problem is there are three edge rushers in the top of this class (Thibs, Hutchinson and Karlaftsis), and all three could easily be gone by #8. Compounding things for Atlanta is that Karlaftsis is more of a true 4-3 DE, while both Hutchinson and Thibs are more standup rushers that would better fit Atlanta's schemes. This is a relatively deep class of edge rushers, and Altnata could gamble that they can get a guy later. But edge rushers are typically in such high demand, they would be chancing not being able to adequately address that area considering they may even need to double up at edge rusher Atlanta has two second round picks, plus they have a WR that is currently a question mark in Ridley that could be of help to TL.
9. Denver-Needs QB, Edge Rusher. I think this is another spot that could see the Jaguars successfully trade back from #1, but for various reasons. Regarding the edge rushers, the analysis is similar to Atlanta's. Since they traded Von Miller and Bradley Chubb has had injury issues, Denver could use an edge rusher, irrespective of whether Hackett keeps the 3-4 Denver is currently running or changes to a 4-3. But like Atlanta, they are possibly picking too far down to land one of the big three edge rushers. But more interesting is how QB affects the dynamic. Denver also has a new Head coach, and he will likely want his own guy at QB since Bridgewater and Lock have proven not to be long term answers at the positionm so rookie analysis may apply to them, too. However, they are reported to be one o the teams interested in trading for Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. If that trade goes through, as expected, Green bay could be the team occupying this spot. If so, Green Bay could use a QB if they have soured on Love, or a T because of Bakhtiari's injury issues. It's possible they could adequately address either position if they wound up at pick #9, but they are low enough to possibly miss out on their top guys if they stood pat. Also, if they stay at 9, they would also address WR at that spot, since Davante Adams may want to depart if Rodgers leaves.
11. Washington-Needs QB and T. The Sk....errr....Commanders do not have a long term answer at QB. Both heinecke and Fitzpatrick can be good placeholders, neither can take Washington where they want to go. With their defense, it would make much more sense for them to go after one of the vets like Garoppolo, Wilson, etc. than to try to hope on a rookie QB to develop.
12. Minnesota-Still in pretty good position at QB and T. They need edge rushers though. Will they play a 4-3 or a 3-4? Either way, they will likely miss out on the top 3 edge rushers if they stay at 11. While 11 might be an ideal spot for Jacksonville if they want to take a WR early, I'm not sure Minnesota would have the capital or inclination to move up that far, and I'm not sure Jacksonville would want to move that far back.
Hope this helps.