"China ‘convinced it needs to hit US with Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack’ to win war over Taiwan, expert warns"
"She explained that Beijing now believes it also has to fight the US if it is to fulfil its
long cherished goal of invading Taiwan and "reuniting" with the mainland.
Mastro believes the most likely way such a conflict would play out is with a Pearl Harbor-style attack on US forces in the region.
It would be designed to try and knock out US forces so they could not react to stop China gaining a foothold in Taiwan, which it regards as its territory.
The strategic gamble would be an attempt to stall a wider war - just as Japan hoped when they attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, drawing the US into World War Two.
It would be one of the chilling factors China would have to weigh up if decides the only way to "reunification" with Taiwan is an invasion."
https://www.the-sun.com/news/5935484/chi...ck-taiwan/
I've seen this mentioned elsewhere.
Ultimately, no one knows what the Chinese leadership is actually thinking, until they act.
I've also seen a claim that there is a common thread between Germany's decision to start WWI and Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. In both cases, their power had been increasing relative to the rest of the world by simple economic and technological growth, but the leadership felt that they were going to stall out or decline if they didn't strike first and win. So that becomes very concerning as we see China's growth begin to stall for the first time in decades.
A war over Taiwan would be very, very ugly and very, very long. China would have to utterly control the strait and blockade the island, which they may be able to do, but only by sinking many ships. Then China would have to work on the transport ships necessary for the invasion, which will take years. Meanwhile, the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all be doing their best to break the blockade, including perhaps airstrikes on the Chinese mainland. Which of course will be responded to with airstrikes on all of China's enemies around the Pacific. It would take some luck for all of that to not go nuclear.
The usual suspects will find a way to blame Trump..
That old quote lives in my head something like " I know not what weapons will be used in WW3 but certain it will be sticks and stones in WW4"
No one wins in WW3 and make no mistake a conflict between USA and China is WW3
(08-05-2022, 03:41 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I've seen this mentioned elsewhere.
Ultimately, no one knows what the Chinese leadership is actually thinking, until they act.
I've also seen a claim that there is a common thread between Germany's decision to start WWI and Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. In both cases, their power had been increasing relative to the rest of the world by simple economic and technological growth, but the leadership felt that they were going to stall out or decline if they didn't strike first and win. So that becomes very concerning as we see China's growth begin to stall for the first time in decades.
A war over Taiwan would be very, very ugly and very, very long. China would have to utterly control the strait and blockade the island, which they may be able to do, but only by sinking many ships. Then China would have to work on the transport ships necessary for the invasion, which will take years. Meanwhile, the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all be doing their best to break the blockade, including perhaps airstrikes on the Chinese mainland. Which of course will be responded to with airstrikes on all of China's enemies around the Pacific. It would take some luck for all of that to not go nuclear.
Japan attacking the US doesn't match this situation. Japan invaded China and US and Russia were helping China. Then WW3 happens and US puts embargo on Japan for oil. That forced their hand but I don't think anyone thought they would be able to do what they did. Attacking the US was stupid but they really needed to get oil reserves.
If China attacks the US they would be bringing the US into war. They can take Taiwan without attacking another country. Bringing another country into it is stupid.
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(08-05-2022, 09:48 PM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ] (08-05-2022, 03:41 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I've seen this mentioned elsewhere.
Ultimately, no one knows what the Chinese leadership is actually thinking, until they act.
I've also seen a claim that there is a common thread between Germany's decision to start WWI and Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. In both cases, their power had been increasing relative to the rest of the world by simple economic and technological growth, but the leadership felt that they were going to stall out or decline if they didn't strike first and win. So that becomes very concerning as we see China's growth begin to stall for the first time in decades.
A war over Taiwan would be very, very ugly and very, very long. China would have to utterly control the strait and blockade the island, which they may be able to do, but only by sinking many ships. Then China would have to work on the transport ships necessary for the invasion, which will take years. Meanwhile, the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all be doing their best to break the blockade, including perhaps airstrikes on the Chinese mainland. Which of course will be responded to with airstrikes on all of China's enemies around the Pacific. It would take some luck for all of that to not go nuclear.
Japan attacking the US doesn't match this situation. Japan invaded China and US and Russia were helping China. Then WW3 happens and US puts embargo on Japan for oil. That forced their hand but I don't think anyone thought they would be able to do what they did. Attacking the US was stupid but they really needed to get oil reserves.
If China attacks the US they would be bringing the US into war. They can take Taiwan without attacking another country. Bringing another country into it is stupid.
Sent from my SM-T970 using Tapatalk
If they attack Taiwan then they are essentially bringing us into war. That’s the whole point
They wouldn’t be pulling this crap if Trump were in office…China’s window is getting shorter every day. China will attack before 24…Then chaos…
(08-05-2022, 08:03 PM)EricC85 Wrote: [ -> ]That old quote lives in my head something like " I know not what weapons will be used in WW3 but certain it will be sticks and stones in WW4"
No one wins in WW3 and make no mistake a conflict between USA and China is WW3
I don't think it will happen the way that individual envisioned that happening when that quote was made. I would think by now, as seen with Covid and the Wuhan Lab connection, most countries would rather inflict biological warfare or technological crippling warfare on their enemies now. There's no reason to nuke one another. The long term effects are devastating for everybody as a whole. What good is claiming yourself the victor if you've turned the world into a mini snow globe with nuclear winters and fallout? I can just poison your food, release a chemical into your water supplies or into your neck of the wood's air and call it a day. Once that starts I'll start using EMP's to take out your rapid forms of communication and abilities to function as a society and that's that.
I honestly think the media and scientists have pretty much already told us how this will play out in the next few years or decades to come. It's all about resources. Forget the individual(s) names but it was a panel not too long ago warning people about using the 23&Me DNA services because it could technically be sold off to anybody and that's where they can begin targeting your food supplies and deliberately killing you off in that format.
Nobody talks about this kind of stuff enough but it can't be coincidental when Gates, who was talking about vaccines, potential viruses on a global scale and population control now for decades, is now our Nation's largest farmland owner with 269,000 acres. This is the same guy that's trying to convince us that one day, we'll be able to take a dump, use that waste and water somehow in a food plant and turn it into a juicy burger. I [BLEEP] you not. Look that up.
Also, China even has a stake in our soil now. They have landing holdings here that have increased tenfold over the last decade. At the beginning of 2020, investments from China held $2 Billion dollars of our Agricultural land. The other challenges that I have heard in the farming community is that this year's harvest was not so great. There's been quite a few rumblings about a potential food shortage coming towards the end of this year and going into next year.
Media is trying to drum up more fear porn now with this Monkey Pox virus going around. WW3 has already been initiated. It's been going on since post 9/11. They're just doing it quietly and more discreetly through big investments. It's real life Monopoly now and the goal is to go back to the ancient feudal systems of Royalty > Commoner > Peasant. All they need to do now is have the central banks and governments work together to intercept bitcoin and blockchain and other cryptocurrencies and they'll essentially have us by the balls financially.
They're already trying something out like this in Europe.
I think what the original article is probably conflating a couple ideas. I think it would be an unmitigated disaster for China to attack the US first. However, it does make sense for China to understand that they have to take Taiwan before the US can get involved, purely from a strategic standpoint.
I just watched a video about Chinese tactics. They have been flying routes into Taiwan airspace up to a dozen times a day and with increasing frequency. They are not identifying themselves. Over time, they keep getting closer and closer to Taiwan. They are conditioning Taiwan to get used to unidentified planes coming from China, so they will stop putting their military on high alert every time this happens. When China feels like the conditions are right... they plan to unexpectedly overwhelm Taiwan with such a quickness that the US can't respond, which includes getting boots on the ground. If they can take it without it becoming a protracted war, I think they think the US will just cut its losses. If they can't successfully take Taiwan quickly, they know they will be fighting both Taiwan and, at the very least, the wealth and military equipment of the US.
(08-06-2022, 10:37 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I think what the original article is probably conflating a couple ideas. I think it would be an unmitigated disaster for China to attack the US first. However, it does make sense for China to understand that they have to take Taiwan before the US can get involved, purely from a strategic standpoint.
I just watched a video about Chinese tactics. They have been flying routes into Taiwan airspace up to a dozen times a day and with increasing frequency. They are not identifying themselves. Over time, they keep getting closer and closer to Taiwan. They are conditioning Taiwan to get used to unidentified planes coming from China, so they will stop putting their military on high alert every time this happens. When China feels like the conditions are right... they plan to unexpectedly overwhelm Taiwan with such a quickness that the US can't respond, which includes getting boots on the ground. If they can take it without it becoming a protracted war, I think they think the US will just cut its losses. If they can't successfully take Taiwan quickly, they know they will be fighting both Taiwan and, at the very least, the wealth and military equipment of the US.
They wont be able to take an island with 23 million people with some air raids and paratroopers. The US couldnt do that either. China will need to transfer about a million soldiers by ship. And they don't have ships for that.
If they manage to scare the US and Japan out of the area, that just sets up a long blockade and air war. Taiwan would remain independent until they either surrender or finally get invaded.
(08-06-2022, 12:05 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (08-06-2022, 10:37 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]I think what the original article is probably conflating a couple ideas. I think it would be an unmitigated disaster for China to attack the US first. However, it does make sense for China to understand that they have to take Taiwan before the US can get involved, purely from a strategic standpoint.
I just watched a video about Chinese tactics. They have been flying routes into Taiwan airspace up to a dozen times a day and with increasing frequency. They are not identifying themselves. Over time, they keep getting closer and closer to Taiwan. They are conditioning Taiwan to get used to unidentified planes coming from China, so they will stop putting their military on high alert every time this happens. When China feels like the conditions are right... they plan to unexpectedly overwhelm Taiwan with such a quickness that the US can't respond, which includes getting boots on the ground. If they can take it without it becoming a protracted war, I think they think the US will just cut its losses. If they can't successfully take Taiwan quickly, they know they will be fighting both Taiwan and, at the very least, the wealth and military equipment of the US.
They wont be able to take an island with 23 million people with some air raids and paratroopers. The US couldnt do that either. China will need to transfer about a million soldiers by ship. And they don't have ships for that.
If they manage to scare the US and Japan out of the area, that just sets up a long blockade and air war. Taiwan would remain independent until they either surrender or finally get invaded.
Of course, like Russia, China has a nuclear arsenal. They would probably use it if they felt it would give them an advantage in a blockade situation or a stalemate which of course risks retaliation but Xi, like Putin, may doubt the west's willingness to escalate.