12-14-2022, 08:16 PM
I know, I know. Queue the classic Jim Mora "Playoffs?!?" clip.
While the regular season finish line is in sight, we''ve still got quite the road ahead. Our remaining opponents are quite formidable, especially if the Jaguars are not playing at the top of their games. Even the theoretical most winnable game left on the schedule, the league worst Houston Texans, have beaten us NINE (9) straight times, including their one win this season. We also have another historical nemesis remaining in week 18, the loathsome and detestable tacks. While there s plenty of evidence they appear to be on the way down and I'd love more than a LOT for the Jaguars to be the team to push them over the edge, until they are finished, there will always be that trepidation associated with them. In addition, we play against the Jets, who not only present a very good defense capable of giving the Bills' explosive offense a tough time, but they are a competitor for one of the last playoff spots. Of course, this run continues this week with the very strong and well balanced Dallas team.
Just about the entire fanbase has talked about how nice it is to finally have relevant games in December beyond draft position. What's the enjoyment of having the relevant games in December if you can't discuss the post season possibilities, no matter how remote? Given this, I offer you various thoughts on the post season.
1. In most of the past decade, a constant controversy on the board ws the value of "tanking," that is, a willingness to see the team endure short term loss for otherwise meaningless games for superior draft position that could have a much longer positive impact. While we finally have the franchise QB that would make the whole tanking discussion worthwhile, I am experiencing a similar logical dynamic this year despite dissimilar factual context. The team is not at the bottom of the standings playing out the schedule-at least to our knowledge at the moment. It's still quite possible this season could end in a historical playoff run for this team. Even if this team misses out on the playoffs, the arrow is clearly pointing uo with this franchise. We have a great coach and we found our franchise QB. It would seem we are poised to be the rulers of the division for the forseeable future, as opposed to the usual wondering where in the hell will we find those key players starting the process from scratch once again. Yet I could see a potential benefit to NOT making the playoffs if it results in Baalke NOT retaining his current position with the team. Make no mistake, it would be absolutely GREAT in the short term for this team to make the playoffs this year. But its worth would be greatly diminished if it results in us retaining Baalke, who has left much to be desired in terms of player acquisition. The ideal scenario is we make the playoffs this year, yet Khan decides to go in a different GM direction with a guy with a better track record in terms of player acquisition.
2. That aside, assuming we make the playoffs what would be our best path? Would it be easier to win the division, or is winning one of the last wild card spots our surest path? To me, under the current circumstances, I believe winning the division would be the best path forward. First, it puts most of the factors/tiebreakers in our hands. Tennessee currently has a 2 game lead over us with 4 remaining. Tennessee is playing poorly, having lost their last three and three more possible losses within their last 4 games (Chargers, Dallas, and us). If we gain one game on them between now and week 18 and then beat Tennessee in week 18, by virtue of sweeping the Titans, we win the division, making the playoffs irrespective of our record vs. any of the other teams vying for a wild card. On top of that, we'd host a playoff game against the 5th seed/1st Wild card team. As it stands now (maybe Baltimore, whom we've already beat), Miami (currently sliding). Considering we're at least 2 games back of everyone in the wild card hunt, we'd have to hope to beat out the Jets and Chargers (already have head to hed over Chargers and if we beat the Jets, we'd gain that tiebreaaker too. We haven't played the Patriots or Dolphins. While those AFC East wild card contenders will knock each other off down the stretch, we don't know which ones will lose enough that we can beat them out. Aside from that, if we get in with the last wild card, we would open on the road agains either Kansas City, Buffalo, or Cincinnati.
Your thoughts?
While the regular season finish line is in sight, we''ve still got quite the road ahead. Our remaining opponents are quite formidable, especially if the Jaguars are not playing at the top of their games. Even the theoretical most winnable game left on the schedule, the league worst Houston Texans, have beaten us NINE (9) straight times, including their one win this season. We also have another historical nemesis remaining in week 18, the loathsome and detestable tacks. While there s plenty of evidence they appear to be on the way down and I'd love more than a LOT for the Jaguars to be the team to push them over the edge, until they are finished, there will always be that trepidation associated with them. In addition, we play against the Jets, who not only present a very good defense capable of giving the Bills' explosive offense a tough time, but they are a competitor for one of the last playoff spots. Of course, this run continues this week with the very strong and well balanced Dallas team.
Just about the entire fanbase has talked about how nice it is to finally have relevant games in December beyond draft position. What's the enjoyment of having the relevant games in December if you can't discuss the post season possibilities, no matter how remote? Given this, I offer you various thoughts on the post season.
1. In most of the past decade, a constant controversy on the board ws the value of "tanking," that is, a willingness to see the team endure short term loss for otherwise meaningless games for superior draft position that could have a much longer positive impact. While we finally have the franchise QB that would make the whole tanking discussion worthwhile, I am experiencing a similar logical dynamic this year despite dissimilar factual context. The team is not at the bottom of the standings playing out the schedule-at least to our knowledge at the moment. It's still quite possible this season could end in a historical playoff run for this team. Even if this team misses out on the playoffs, the arrow is clearly pointing uo with this franchise. We have a great coach and we found our franchise QB. It would seem we are poised to be the rulers of the division for the forseeable future, as opposed to the usual wondering where in the hell will we find those key players starting the process from scratch once again. Yet I could see a potential benefit to NOT making the playoffs if it results in Baalke NOT retaining his current position with the team. Make no mistake, it would be absolutely GREAT in the short term for this team to make the playoffs this year. But its worth would be greatly diminished if it results in us retaining Baalke, who has left much to be desired in terms of player acquisition. The ideal scenario is we make the playoffs this year, yet Khan decides to go in a different GM direction with a guy with a better track record in terms of player acquisition.
2. That aside, assuming we make the playoffs what would be our best path? Would it be easier to win the division, or is winning one of the last wild card spots our surest path? To me, under the current circumstances, I believe winning the division would be the best path forward. First, it puts most of the factors/tiebreakers in our hands. Tennessee currently has a 2 game lead over us with 4 remaining. Tennessee is playing poorly, having lost their last three and three more possible losses within their last 4 games (Chargers, Dallas, and us). If we gain one game on them between now and week 18 and then beat Tennessee in week 18, by virtue of sweeping the Titans, we win the division, making the playoffs irrespective of our record vs. any of the other teams vying for a wild card. On top of that, we'd host a playoff game against the 5th seed/1st Wild card team. As it stands now (maybe Baltimore, whom we've already beat), Miami (currently sliding). Considering we're at least 2 games back of everyone in the wild card hunt, we'd have to hope to beat out the Jets and Chargers (already have head to hed over Chargers and if we beat the Jets, we'd gain that tiebreaaker too. We haven't played the Patriots or Dolphins. While those AFC East wild card contenders will knock each other off down the stretch, we don't know which ones will lose enough that we can beat them out. Aside from that, if we get in with the last wild card, we would open on the road agains either Kansas City, Buffalo, or Cincinnati.
Your thoughts?
