Start off with the division as that is the easiest way to make it. Doesn't look like there is any scenario where we can win the division without beating the Titans the last week of the year as they'd beat us on the division tiebreaker. Which means if we go into the final week of the season either one game behind, tied, or one game ahead of the Titans it doesnt matter. We'll have to win that game regardless. So with that game being a given, it really just comes down to what happens over the next two weeks. At a minimum we need to stay one game behind going into the last week of the year. Week 16 we play at the Jets (thurs) and Titans are home against the Texans. Week 17 we are at the Texans and Titans are home against the Cowboys (thurs).
Worst case in week 16 - we lose to the Jets and they beat the Texans. Puts us two down with two to play. So in week 17 we'd have to beat the Texans and they'd have to lose to the Cowboys to put us back to being one game back. Not a great spot but both outcomes are very plausible. Texans seem to be playing tougher of late but if the Titans were to have just beaten them than we can too. And Cowboys are much better than the Titans so that seems pretty realistic as well. There is a slim chance the Cowboys will be locked into the 5 seed with nothing to play for before week 17 begins but that is unlikely.
Neutral case in week 16 - Jags and Titans both lose or both win. Remain one game back but now with two to play. In week 17 if they beat the Cowboys we'd have to beat the Texans to stay one game behind. But if they lose to the Cowboys, our game against the Texans becomes meaningless. And with the Cowboys and Titans playing on thursday, we'd know exactly what was needed by the time we play Houston.
Best case in week 16 - Jags win and Titans lose. We are now tied with two games to go. Interestingly, this makes both of our week 17 games meaningless (at least for the division race). Again doesnt do us any good being up one game going into the season finale. If we lost to the Titans and finish with same record we lose the tiebreaker. So if we go into week 17 tied up, it doesnt matter if we come out of week 17 up one, tied, or down one. We still have to beat the Titans in week 18. So those week 17 games are meaningless in this scenario.
As far as the wild card, very slim chance we could make it in that slot. First, if we go 9-8 we are winning the division. So the wild card is only an option for us if we go 8-9 and don't win the division. Currently the Chargers and Dolphins are sitting in the last two wild card spots at 8-6. So one of those two would have to go winless the rest of the way. Chargers playing Colts, Rams, and Broncos. Dolphins playing Packers, Patriots, and Jets. Cant see either going winless but if I had to pick one I think the Dolphins have the harder schedule. All of those teams still playing for something. We'd also have to jump the Patriots and Jets who are 7-7. And then there are a bunch of other teams at 6-8 who may also finish 8-9. You can draw up a number of scenarios where we'd get in at 8-9 but they all seem pretty unlikely. Much easier to just take care of business in the division.
tacks lost today, win and we are in. The playoffs start Thursday for us.
Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
When the jags lose I be sad but when the titans lose too I feel a little better
(12-18-2022, 10:31 PM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]Start off with the division as that is the easiest way to make it. Doesn't look like there is any scenario where we can win the division without beating the Titans the last week of the year as they'd beat us on the division tiebreaker. Which means if we go into the final week of the season either one game behind, tied, or one game ahead of the Titans it doesnt matter. We'll have to win that game regardless. So with that game being a given, it really just comes down to what happens over the next two weeks. At a minimum we need to stay one game behind going into the last week of the year. Week 16 we play at the Jets (thurs) and Titans are home against the Texans. Week 17 we are at the Texans and Titans are home against the Cowboys (thurs).
Worst case in week 16 - we lose to the Jets and they beat the Texans. Puts us two down with two to play. So in week 17 we'd have to beat the Texans and they'd have to lose to the Cowboys to put us back to being one game back. Not a great spot but both outcomes are very plausible. Texans seem to be playing tougher of late but if the Titans were to have just beaten them than we can too. And Cowboys are much better than the Titans so that seems pretty realistic as well. There is a slim chance the Cowboys will be locked into the 5 seed with nothing to play for before week 17 begins but that is unlikely.
Neutral case in week 16 - Jags and Titans both lose or both win. Remain one game back but now with two to play. In week 17 if they beat the Cowboys we'd have to beat the Texans to stay one game behind. But if they lose to the Cowboys, our game against the Texans becomes meaningless. And with the Cowboys and Titans playing on thursday, we'd know exactly what was needed by the time we play Houston.
Best case in week 16 - Jags win and Titans lose. We are now tied with two games to go. Interestingly, this makes both of our week 17 games meaningless (at least for the division race). Again doesnt do us any good being up one game going into the season finale. If we lost to the Titans and finish with same record we lose the tiebreaker. So if we go into week 17 tied up, it doesnt matter if we come out of week 17 up one, tied, or down one. We still have to beat the Titans in week 18. So those week 17 games are meaningless in this scenario.
As far as the wild card, very slim chance we could make it in that slot. First, if we go 9-8 we are winning the division. So the wild card is only an option for us if we go 8-9 and don't win the division. Currently the Chargers and Dolphins are sitting in the last two wild card spots at 8-6. So one of those two would have to go winless the rest of the way. Chargers playing Colts, Rams, and Broncos. Dolphins playing Packers, Patriots, and Jets. Cant see either going winless but if I had to pick one I think the Dolphins have the harder schedule. All of those teams still playing for something. We'd also have to jump the Patriots and Jets who are 7-7. And then there are a bunch of other teams at 6-8 who may also finish 8-9. You can draw up a number of scenarios where we'd get in at 8-9 but they all seem pretty unlikely. Much easier to just take care of business in the division.
Great explanations. Well, it's one game at time still. 3 games are left, and those are all teams the jags are probably better than right now. It's very exciting, but the jags have a lot of work left to do.
(12-18-2022, 11:13 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
if the Tacks lose out, you think Vrabel survives black monday?
I've been burned too long to expect a 1996-esque run for us, I am just waiting for the gut-wrenching loss that ends the dream scenarios. But after Sunday, it's real hard not to think that the fates are aligning things perfectly for this team.
(12-18-2022, 11:13 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
Don’t even need them to lose out!
If Jags win out, they’re in and the Jags host a playoff game!
(12-19-2022, 09:51 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (12-18-2022, 11:13 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
Don’t even need them to lose out!
If Jags win out, they’re in and the Jags host a playoff game!
3 more wins (and 5 going into the playoffs) is a pretty heavy ask. I can see us losing one of the last three, but as long as we are a game ahead of the titans (meaning they lose the next two), or we beat the titans on the final game, we are golden.
The Thursday night game concerns me. We seem to play better against the better teams.
(12-19-2022, 11:05 AM)RicoTx Wrote: [ -> ]The Thursday night game concerns me. We seem to play better against the better teams.
Jets are a good team. One of the best defenses in the league. The red hot lions only got one TD against them yesterday.
(12-19-2022, 11:14 AM)jessepeck1213 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-19-2022, 11:05 AM)RicoTx Wrote: [ -> ]The Thursday night game concerns me. We seem to play better against the better teams.
Jets are a good team. One of the best defenses in the league. The red hot lions only got one TD against them yesterday.
I never said they were a bad team, but I certainly don't call them a good team. Their offense is not good especially if Wilson is playing.
Jets game is definitely scary. Good team (at least defense) fighting for a playoff spot. Short week on the road. Current forecast is saying cold, rainy, and windy. Ball security will be a premium. If the conditions hold to the forecast, that would favor how the Jets would want to play. Think it could very easily be a low scoring game where one or two big plays will determine outcome.
Jets game feels like a trap. Short week off an emotional win. We got the job done and we have to turn the page fast.
I just realized that this run started when Ashlyn left for Philly.
(12-18-2022, 11:13 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
If we win the next 2 and the Titans lose their next 2, Jags clinch the division and rest their starters in final week vs the Titans.
(12-19-2022, 01:11 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ] (12-18-2022, 11:13 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
If we win the next 2 and the Titans lose their next 2, Jags clinch the division and rest their starters in final week vs the Titans.
Are you sure? Jags would be 8-8 and Titan 7-9 going into week 18. A loss and both are 7-9 with Titans winning division tie breaker.
(12-19-2022, 01:11 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ] (12-18-2022, 11:13 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing would make me happier than if we won out, and the Tacks lost every game remaining.
If we win the next 2 and the Titans lose their next 2, Jags clinch the division and rest their starters in final week vs the Titans.
Unfortunately, that doesn't happen. Jags can win the next 2 and Titans can lose the next 2 but beat the Jags in Week 18 to win the division. It would happen because they would have a better division record. Jags just need to stay within a game or better for that final game to determine the AFC South title.
(12-19-2022, 01:22 PM)IndestructibleJag Wrote: [ -> ] (12-19-2022, 01:11 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]If we win the next 2 and the Titans lose their next 2, Jags clinch the division and rest their starters in final week vs the Titans.
Unfortunately, that doesn't happen. Jags can win the next 2 and Titans can lose the next 2 but beat the Jags in Week 18 to win the division. It would happen because they would have a better division record. Jags just need to stay within a game or better for that final game to determine the AFC South title.
did y'all ever think that HURRICANE!!! was more concerned about preserving a higher draft pick than some meaningless division crown? The last time we won the division, that resulted in us picking Taven Bryan. I don't think anyone wants to see that ever again.
(12-19-2022, 01:22 PM)IndestructibleJag Wrote: [ -> ] (12-19-2022, 01:11 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]If we win the next 2 and the Titans lose their next 2, Jags clinch the division and rest their starters in final week vs the Titans.
Unfortunately, that doesn't happen. Jags can win the next 2 and Titans can lose the next 2 but beat the Jags in Week 18 to win the division. It would happen because they would have a better division record. Jags just need to stay within a game or better for that final game to determine the AFC South title.
Great point. I stand corrected.
When Jags win this week and Ten loses to Houston it is week 18 for the division no matter the outcome of week 17. how great will that Sunday the Bank be. Sunday Night Prime Time.