Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(06-08-2023, 10:19 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' Author Warns Of 'Greatest' Real Estate Crash Ever: '2023 Will Make 2008 Look Like Nothing' (msn.com)

This looks legit, but at least at first it's going to be limited to commercial real estate only.  It could get ugly.  Lots of office condominium towers might not be able to raise their necessary maintenance funds.

Our homes are probably safe for now, but I would be more cautious than usual about stretching my mortgage-over-paycheck ratio on any new mortgage.  If you find yourself saying "I'm going to need pay increases in the coming years to make this work" or "maybe the insurance cost will go down", don't do it.

(06-08-2023, 11:18 AM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-08-2023, 10:19 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' Author Warns Of 'Greatest' Real Estate Crash Ever: '2023 Will Make 2008 Look Like Nothing' (msn.com)

This looks legit, but at least at first it's going to be limited to commercial real estate only.  It could get ugly.  Lots of office condominium towers might not be able to raise their necessary maintenance funds.

Our homes are probably safe for now, but I would be more cautious than usual about stretching my mortgage-over-paycheck ratio on any new mortgage.  If you find yourself saying "I'm going to need pay increases in the coming years to make this work" or "maybe the insurance cost will go down", don't do it.

Agreed. Hopefully in the near future we'll see some growth and turnaround economically. This has been interesting past few years since covid.

I just walked by a new 5 story building that is now shut down due to massive MEP failure. Insurance is paying for it, looks like. But I think there has been a trend in the past 20 years or so of "build to flip" where only the bare minimum electrical and plumbing and elevators are installed, with little to no redundancy. I would be concerned that the insurance companies haven't caught on to this problem, and I would be concerned that when they do, owners will no be able to afford the premium.

I think everyone pretty much expects a real estate correction to come.. Just don't know when.

Inventories are a little less than a quarter of what they were in 2008. That’s the biggest reason why this correction expected by the masses may not happen. Rate increases will have an effect on demand as well, but rates are still relatively low historically speaking. Whatever correction you are expecting is probably going to be much smaller in reality than you think.

Prudent decision making with your finances is always a good idea, but if you need to buy or move for some reason, the current set of circumstances shouldn’t be as concerning to you as those that were present in 2008.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I’m (probably) in my forever home, so it doesn’t affect me much, but if a big correction does happen I’ll probably start looking at scooping up some investment properties.

(06-08-2023, 12:03 PM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]I think everyone pretty much expects a real estate correction to come.. Just don't know when.

That's pretty much accurate.   Every market corrects at some point.  We just don't know when it will happen.  

Predicting a market correction is the easiest thing in the world.  If it corrects, you're "the man who predicted the market correction," and you can sell books and be a pundit, and if it takes too long to happen, no one remembers your prediction.

(06-15-2023, 06:59 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-08-2023, 12:03 PM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]I think everyone pretty much expects a real estate correction to come.. Just don't know when.

That's pretty much accurate.   Every market corrects at some point.  We just don't know when it will happen.  

Predicting a market correction is the easiest thing in the world.  If it corrects, you're "the man who predicted the market correction," and you can sell books and be a pundit, and if it takes too long to happen, no one remembers your prediction.

Correct, but I don't think the housing market real estate correction is going to be as bad as the doom and gloom folks predict, if it even happens.  The bigger real estate issue is probably going to be on the commercial side, but even then most large companies are mandating workers return to the office, so...like most things, no one really knows.

The country is in a weird place right now. These doomsday predictions are largely a reaction to that.

(06-16-2023, 05:51 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]The country is in a weird place right now. These doomsday predictions are largely a reaction to that.

Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 05:51 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]The country is in a weird place right now. These doomsday predictions are largely a reaction to that.

Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

(06-16-2023, 07:15 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

Exactly...you also have to think that, on the flipside, a large amount of people locked in very low interest rates before the rate hikes started happening.

(06-16-2023, 07:50 AM)KingIngram052787 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 07:15 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

Exactly...you also have to think that, on the flipside, a large amount of people locked in very low interest rates before the rate hikes started happening.

Right.  Helps keep inventory low.  People don't want to move because moving probably means a higher interest rate.  When more of the 2008 to 2021 mortgages start getting paid off, or at least having a lot of equity, circumstances might change.  But that will probably take a while.

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 05:51 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]The country is in a weird place right now. These doomsday predictions are largely a reaction to that.

Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

For small and medium sized businesses, sure. Mega corporations are doing better than ever.

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 05:51 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]The country is in a weird place right now. These doomsday predictions are largely a reaction to that.

Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

Maybe thats true in medical, but I'm not seeing it in architecture and engineering.  We are running really hot lately.  We've hired recently.

(06-16-2023, 07:15 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

That's the other big factor as to why this isn't 2008 all over again (aside from inventories being low).  Lenders aren't giving out loans with no proof of income like they were leading up to 2008.  The doomsday industry has been putting ads on internet and radio for it seems like 20 years usually to sell you an annuity or their newsletter or something else.  Not sure what Kiyosaki's specific angle is here since I don't think he sells either, but he should know the circumstances now vs then aren't all that comparable.

(06-16-2023, 09:39 AM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

Maybe thats true in medical, but I'm not seeing it in architecture and engineering.  We are running really hot lately.  We've hired recently.

Is that a national thing or a Florida thing? I know you're in Florida, but not sure about your company.

(06-16-2023, 10:46 AM)KingIngram052787 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 09:39 AM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe thats true in medical, but I'm not seeing it in architecture and engineering.  We are running really hot lately.  We've hired recently.

Is that a national thing or a Florida thing? I know you're in Florida, but not sure about your company.

With Epic Universe being built, there could be a local spike in demand for our competencies, but it's hard to tell for sure.  We aren't doing work at Epic Universe (we did some early conceptual but that was years ago).  I don't think our direct competitors are either.

(06-15-2023, 12:15 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Inventories are a little less than a quarter of what they were in 2008.  That’s the biggest reason why this correction expected by the masses may not happen.  Rate increases will have an effect on demand as well, but rates are still relatively low historically speaking.  Whatever correction you are expecting is probably going to be much smaller in reality than you think.

Prudent decision making with your finances is always a good idea, but if you need to buy or move for some reason, the current set of circumstances shouldn’t be as concerning to you as those that were present in 2008.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I’m (probably) in my forever home, so it doesn’t affect me much, but if a big correction does happen I’ll probably start looking at scooping up some investment properties.

I'm leaning this way.

I see a correction coming in roughly the next three years, but I don't think it will be drastic like 2007/8.

I think we may see home values that rose 25%-30% over that 18-24 month stretch of rapid inflation settle back down a little bit  - or stagnate long enough for consumers to gain some ground. 

I actually have a 24 month plan in place for a home purchase in Duval County and I'm preparing two contingencies based on whether the market corrects or not.

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(06-16-2023, 07:15 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

Yes, this period of property value inflation is much different than that insane surge of lenders doling out backloaded mortgage deals to anyone who'd sign up for one. 

We won't see that tsunami of foreclosures. Maybe a wave, but not one of epic proportion.

(06-16-2023, 09:46 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2023, 07:15 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

That's the other big factor as to why this isn't 2008 all over again (aside from inventories being low).  Lenders aren't giving out loans with no proof of income like they were leading up to 2008.  The doomsday industry has been putting ads on internet and radio for it seems like 20 years usually to sell you an annuity or their newsletter or something else.  Not sure what Kiyosaki's specific angle is here since I don't think he sells either, but he should know the circumstances now vs then aren't all that comparable.

More like 60 years.