It’s interesting that Trump voters seem to take polls very seriously now that their candidate is ahead. When Biden was leading, they didn’t give them much credence. Human nature I guess.
(11-20-2023, 04:30 PM)MarleyJag Wrote: [ -> ]It’s interesting that Trump voters seem to take polls very seriously now that their candidate is ahead. When Biden was leading, they didn’t give them much credence. Human nature I guess.
In general and specifically in politics polls are as useless as statistics. Both can be manipulated by asking specific questions to get specific answers that suit a specific purpose.
I don't take stock in either of them. Sadly there are folks who live and die by them and let the numbers sway their own views about things.
(11-20-2023, 03:44 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Trump has his opponents beat by many, many miles. It's not even close. I don't expect it to be a close race at all.
Trump runs away with his primary and Presidency at this point. Only thing stopping that is Death or Dictatorship taking over office while we fall into all out civil unrest and War. ![[Image: ba4c6ce75fddb5951bde3bd9830fb227.jpg]](https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231120/ba4c6ce75fddb5951bde3bd9830fb227.jpg)
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But will Trump even be around next fall? I think that’s the case for sticking in the race. If these trials are in the spring and he gets convicted over the summer, I’m not entirely sure he would still be able to the be the GOP nominee from prison. I mean, I guess he could, but I would think the party would want someone to run who’s actually behind bars.
(11-20-2023, 04:30 PM)MarleyJag Wrote: [ -> ]It’s interesting that Trump voters seem to take polls very seriously now that their candidate is ahead. When Biden was leading, they didn’t give them much credence. Human nature I guess.
Actually it’s the Biden people that are taking them most seriously. Why else would David Axelrod, James Carville, and CNN be begging the DNC to find someone who can beat Trump since they’re convinced Joe can’t do it.
(11-20-2023, 05:44 PM)Jagger Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2023, 03:44 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Trump has his opponents beat by many, many miles. It's not even close. I don't expect it to be a close race at all.
Trump runs away with his primary and Presidency at this point. Only thing stopping that is Death or Dictatorship taking over office while we fall into all out civil unrest and War.
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But will Trump even be around next fall? I think that’s the case for sticking in the race. If these trials are in the spring and he gets convicted over the summer, I’m not entirely sure he would still be able to the be the GOP nominee from prison. I mean, I guess he could, but I would think the party would want someone to run who’s actually behind bars.
(11-20-2023, 04:30 PM)MarleyJag Wrote: [ -> ]It’s interesting that Trump voters seem to take polls very seriously now that their candidate is ahead. When Biden was leading, they didn’t give them much credence. Human nature I guess.
Actually it’s the Biden people that are taking them most seriously. Why else would David Axelrod, James Carville, and CNN be begging the DNC to find someone who can beat Trump since they’re convinced Joe can’t do it.
He'll be fine. Giving him his Mugshot earlier this year only further cemented his popularity. He won't serve a sentence. It's just another lame duck tactic to try and trip up the inevitable in next year's election.
The Democrats are in shambles. I am an Independent. They have spent roughly the last eight years since Obama's departure from office trying to convince you that the Republicans are so bad that they're the only alternative.
Instead of actually providing a strong, viable set of candidates worth a [BLEEP] in caring for and voting for. They have nobody over there now that really invigorates the public or gets the masses excited about our future as a nation.
I don't care who runs over there. Even if something did happen with Trump? The red wave is inevitable. A Republican gets in no matter what in my opinion, the million dollar question will be, "Is it the right person?"
There's a few things I like and don't like about that party. I am still leaning towards Trump, keep in my mind, I passed on him, not once, but, twice. I also didn't vote Democrat nor Republican though.
With that said? I was wrong in my assessment about Trump and the country in general. I genuinely believe he's not controlled opposition and apart of the establishment anymore. They have spent so much time turning him into a media pinata to beat up on that there's no way he's in that camp.
I also think he's needed with the current global issues we're seeing. I know if I vote for this man next year? That, I am going to more than likely see three things improve:
1. My quality of life in this country in the short term.
2. My sense of peace globally with foreign policy and diplomacy getting improved.
3. My tax dollars being used less and less for proxy wars that this current administration is clearly all about.
(11-20-2023, 05:44 PM)Jagger Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2023, 03:44 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Trump has his opponents beat by many, many miles. It's not even close. I don't expect it to be a close race at all.
Trump runs away with his primary and Presidency at this point. Only thing stopping that is Death or Dictatorship taking over office while we fall into all out civil unrest and War.
Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk
But will Trump even be around next fall? I think that’s the case for sticking in the race. If these trials are in the spring and he gets convicted over the summer, I’m not entirely sure he would still be able to the be the GOP nominee from prison. I mean, I guess he could, but I would think the party would want someone to run who’s actually behind bars.
(11-20-2023, 04:30 PM)MarleyJag Wrote: [ -> ]It’s interesting that Trump voters seem to take polls very seriously now that their candidate is ahead. When Biden was leading, they didn’t give them much credence. Human nature I guess.
Actually it’s the Biden people that are taking them most seriously. Why else would David Axelrod, James Carville, and CNN be begging the DNC to find someone who can beat Trump since they’re convinced Joe can’t do it.
Those aren't Biden people, nor do they have enough money to change anything. Our donor class is content with a Biden v Trump rematch and content with either one winning. So far.
(11-20-2023, 07:01 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2023, 05:44 PM)Jagger Wrote: [ -> ]But will Trump even be around next fall? I think that’s the case for sticking in the race. If these trials are in the spring and he gets convicted over the summer, I’m not entirely sure he would still be able to the be the GOP nominee from prison. I mean, I guess he could, but I would think the party would want someone to run who’s actually behind bars.
Actually it’s the Biden people that are taking them most seriously. Why else would David Axelrod, James Carville, and CNN be begging the DNC to find someone who can beat Trump since they’re convinced Joe can’t do it.
Those aren't Biden people, nor do they have enough money to change anything. Our donor class is content with a Biden v Trump rematch and content with either one winning. So far.
I don’t usually take much stock in polls unless they are consistent and show a trend. The fact that most all of them are showing Trump ahead and in blue states is no doubt a concern for Biden, especially when you dig into the numbers more.
The economy is killing him, with people saying they were better financially under Trump. To me, that’s the biggest red flag because the craziness factor of these two cancels each other out…and in the end, it’s going to come down to when we’re you better off, 2016-2020 or 2020 to 2024. That’s where Trump has a monster advantage. Incumbents can’t win elections when their numbers are so low on so many key issues.
(11-20-2023, 07:59 PM)Jagger Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2023, 07:01 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Those aren't Biden people, nor do they have enough money to change anything. Our donor class is content with a Biden v Trump rematch and content with either one winning. So far.
I don’t usually take much stock in polls unless they are consistent and show a trend. The fact that most all of them are showing Trump ahead and in blue states is no doubt a concern for Biden, especially when you dig into the numbers more.
The economy is killing him, with people saying they were better financially under Trump. To me, that’s the biggest red flag because the craziness factor of these two cancels each other out…and in the end, it’s going to come down to when we’re you better off, 2016-2020 or 2020 to 2024. That’s where Trump has a monster advantage. Incumbents can’t win elections when their numbers are so low on so many key issues.
Yet he is surrounded by yes men. Just like anyone else at his level. "You can do it sir. The public will love you again as the election gets closer." Just like Dianne Feinstein. "You're irreplaceable boss. And you're getting better! Just rest and you'll get better!" These people only care about their meal ticket staying in power.
(11-20-2023, 07:01 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2023, 05:44 PM)Jagger Wrote: [ -> ]But will Trump even be around next fall? I think that’s the case for sticking in the race. If these trials are in the spring and he gets convicted over the summer, I’m not entirely sure he would still be able to the be the GOP nominee from prison. I mean, I guess he could, but I would think the party would want someone to run who’s actually behind bars.
Actually it’s the Biden people that are taking them most seriously. Why else would David Axelrod, James Carville, and CNN be begging the DNC to find someone who can beat Trump since they’re convinced Joe can’t do it.
Those aren't Biden people, nor do they have enough money to change anything. Our donor class is content with a Biden v Trump rematch and content with either one winning. So far.
Unless things have shifted recently, the donor class hasn't wanted anything to do with Trump since he first ran in '16 so I disagree about there being contentment amongst those ranks. That's a major part of the appeal of Trump amongst conservatives though, that he's not beholden to the elite wealthy donors or at least perceived not to be. That's also why the Republican party fought him becoming the nominee at every step during his initial run and would very likely like to see someone else be the nominee this time.
One thing is for certain, this is going to be an interesting election cycle for both sides. Lots of subterfuge and hostility, and that will be from each candidate’s own party.
(11-21-2023, 01:40 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (11-20-2023, 07:01 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Those aren't Biden people, nor do they have enough money to change anything. Our donor class is content with a Biden v Trump rematch and content with either one winning. So far.
Unless things have shifted recently, the donor class hasn't wanted anything to do with Trump since he first ran in '16 so I disagree about there being contentment amongst those ranks. That's a major part of the appeal of Trump amongst conservatives though, that he's not beholden to the elite wealthy donors or at least perceived not to be. That's also why the Republican party fought him becoming the nominee at every step during his initial run and would very likely like to see someone else be the nominee this time.
Donald Trump's campaign has raised more money than any other candidate for the 2024 cycle. He wants you to think the donors don't like him, he wants you to think he's beholden to no one, but it's not the truth. Many donors hate him, but it seems many more love him.
How much of that is from small dollar donations?
Always like looking at the Vegas odds. Biden was -425 win the Dem nomination a month ago. It’s down to just -150 now. Newsom gaining big time. Biden’s chances of winning the election have also skyrocketed from +145 to +300. So if anyone thinks Biden will beat Trump, you are getting some great value there.
(11-21-2023, 04:37 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]How much of that is from small dollar donations?
Yeah I was looking through the FEC website and what I see is PACs rolling big money to other PACs and candidates contributing to their own PACs. Need to sift through a lot of layers to get that answer. More time than I feel like spending. The biggest unaffiliated individual donation I saw though was $20 million from billionaire Robert Bigelow to DeSantis' Never Back Down PAC.
Empower Parents PAC is a state level Florida PAC for DeSantis that rolled over a large sum ($82.5M) to his Never Back Down PAC earlier this year. Skimmed the pages upon pages of individual contributions to Empower Parents since the beginning of 2022. The biggest individual donation by far is by, you guessed it, Robert Bigelow at $10M. DeSantis is Bigelow's boy apparently.
Sorry, not meaning to focus on DeSantis with this. Am interested in looking at Trump and anyone else. Just wound up clicking down a particular rabbit hole.
(11-21-2023, 07:40 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (11-21-2023, 04:37 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]How much of that is from small dollar donations?
Yeah I was looking through the FEC website and what I see is PACs rolling big money to other PACs and candidates contributing to their own PACs. Need to sift through a lot of layers to get that answer. More time than I feel like spending. The biggest unaffiliated individual donation I saw though was $20 million from billionaire Robert Bigelow to DeSantis' Never Back Down PAC.
Yeah. They want it to be hard to track. Very few of the donors are willing to put their name out there. They make four or five layers of separation between their name and the name of the organization that gives to the candidate.
(11-21-2023, 09:32 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (11-21-2023, 07:40 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah I was looking through the FEC website and what I see is PACs rolling big money to other PACs and candidates contributing to their own PACs. Need to sift through a lot of layers to get that answer. More time than I feel like spending. The biggest unaffiliated individual donation I saw though was $20 million from billionaire Robert Bigelow to DeSantis' Never Back Down PAC.
Yeah. They want it to be hard to track. Very few of the donors are willing to put their name out there. They make four or five layers of separation between their name and the name of the organization that gives to the candidate.
I haven't been able to identify a single individual contribution over $1 million for Trump yet looking through the FEC site and OpenSecrets. I did see two separate contributions by Craig Duchossois that totaled over $1 million so there may be more like that. Biden had no single contributions over $1 million to his Biden Victory Fund PAC, but a bunch were in the $900k range. Just interesting that nothing out there as obviously large as Desantis' Bigelow cash infusions from the little bit of time I spent looking which admittedly may be the tip of the ice berg.
(11-21-2023, 11:08 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-ov...est-donors
Biggest individual donors in 2022. I saw many of these names on the FEC site donating to various PACs, many of which were not affiliated with one specific candidate. This list appears to total it all up.
Welp, you can cross #7 off that list lolol
(11-22-2023, 07:55 AM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ] (11-21-2023, 11:08 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-ov...est-donors
Biggest individual donors in 2022. I saw many of these names on the FEC site donating to various PACs, many of which were not affiliated with one specific candidate. This list appears to total it all up.
Welp, you can cross #7 off that list lolol
I saw that. Democrats must be in shambles that one of their money laundering operations went caput. Shouldn't they have to give that money back to aggrieved investors?