Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse. If you draft this player at 55 and he busts? Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

In this situation? You trust YOUR process and you trust YOUR board. Block out the noise from everybody else. It's YOUR team you have to worry about. Not their team.

A lot of teams get it wrong. It's been notated many, many times. Tom Brady was a 6th RD selection. Puka Nacua was a 5th RD selection last year. Brock Purdy was the last selection of his entire draft class. Patrick Mahomes was selected outside of the top ten. Aaron Rodgers was drafted outside of the top twenty.

The list goes on and on. You just have to trust your process, trust your board and anticipate what other teams are doing and thinking with their own wants and needs. It's not as easy as people think it is.

Baalke : "I will take the best available RB"

Gene Smith: ‘I would have to meet his wife/girlfriend first.”

(04-30-2024, 09:02 AM)MikePete54 Wrote: [ -> ]Baalke : "I will take the best available RB"

More like "Do his knees still work?"

Guys, since Pederson arrived every person from the owner down has repeatedly said no one person picks. They all scout and have big board input. They all agree to the selections. Yea thereis give and take as they make the actual selections, but they come to consensus. Now this though can be a positive or a very scary negative...LOL

(04-30-2024, 09:13 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Guys, since Pederson arrived every person from the owner down has repeatedly said no one person picks.  They all scout and have big board input. They all agree to the selections. Yea thereis give and take as they make the actual selections, but they come to consensus. Now this though can be a positive or a very scary negative...LOL

Right 

The simple answer is to trust your own evaluation, but the more accurate answer is that Pederson and Baalke are going to decide with input from the prospective position coaches of the two players + input from the scouts that worked each prospect.

Lots of talk? Is the answer always take your guy? If it is shouldn't we as fans wait and see how the players turn out rather than criticize the process? I guess I'm wanting to know if more people would answer know you should trust the consensus big boards and try to get value based on them.

Caldac I appreciate your candor and straightforward answer.

(04-30-2024, 09:27 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]Lots of talk?  Is the answer always take your guy?  If it is shouldn't we as fans wait and see how the players turn out rather than criticize the process?  I guess I'm wanting to know if more people would answer know you should trust the consensus big boards and try to get value based on them.

Caldac I appreciate your candor and straightforward answer.

If we trust the process and our staff, while giving rookies due time to prove themselves, what in the heck are we gonna get fake-mad about in April and May? 

Baalke takes a RB every year. Get used to it. He did the same thing in SF. He doesn't pay RBs 2nd contracts historically, so having fresh legs in the room every year makes sense from that stand point and you will eventually hit on one of these mid to late round RBs. ETN will probably play on the 5th year option and if he's ultra productive will probably then get tagged in his age 27 season before we let him walk in free agency at the over the hill age for RBs of 28. It will be an interesting situation to watch. Many would like to see ETN re-signed. I'm leaning towards that probably not happening.

The issue we’ve seen with Baalke over time is:
1. He’s not especially good at evaluating college talent. Pederson is not particularly good at evaluating OLine talent. The last three years show that.

2. Baalke is too inclined to roll the dice on injured players with measurables and upside as compared with their on field performance.

Couple that with the product we’ve actually seen on the field and it leaves many with little trust in the front office. I for one am willing to be convinced by what I see going forward. But I must be convinced.


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(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse.  If you draft this player at 55 and he busts?  Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

I made a similar hypothetical here.  Rather than a consensus board online, you would have to have some insight into the other teams draft boards.  If you're confident that he is rated as a late 3rd round pick by (all) the other teams, you take the 2nd player rated in the late second (assuming he's at a different position), and trade up your 85th pick to the very top of the other teams draft boards and select him.  

The draft is a gamble, if a player busts he busts, is he's an all-pro he's an all-pro, if someone takes him at 60 then your insight to the other teams draft boards is flawed.  The best drafters line up all of those unknowns and make the best decision with the information they have at hand. No one is perfect, like poker, it's the teams make the least amount of mistakes/or the best gambles that "win" the draft year-over-year.

(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse.  If you draft this player at 55 and he busts?  Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

To the hypothetical:

The first issue is whether your scouting is superior to recognize unseen talent, or if there is an overvaluation somewhere. If you see the guy as a top 40 player where everyone else sees top 100, that's a significant variance that needs your attention. You should be able to discern from visits or exhibitions if other teams are gathering info on the player.

You might look at what is the cost to move up to ~65 from 85, if you think you can still get the player at that spot or therabouts. You might also look to see what can be gained from trading back from 55 to maybe 62. Does one option afford you better value? For example, do you take the next top person at 55, then trade up to 67 from 85 if your guy is still available? Maybe trading back nets you a future pick, but to do so you pass on the next highest guy and are zeroed in now on the guy that you have skewed from conventional thinking.

All that said, if I am at 55 and I can't move, I take the top guy on my board. My board should already account for talent, fit, general area where they are expected to be picked, and potential to develop.

As to the second part, it always hurts more when your pick flops vs. when you pass on a guy who hits. Consider 2011. We moved up for Blaine Gabbert. Next pick? JJ Watt. Where we were slotted? Ryan Kerrigan. Sucks that we missed out on both of those guys, but neither one hoisted a Lombardi on their own merit. Would we have been a better team having either of those guys on the roster? absofreakinlutely. But if Gabbert was a ten-year fixture at the position, we wouldn't have been nearly as crippled roster-wise in the years that followed.

You're up against 31 other teams. More important that you hit on your picks than to worry about whether or not the other teams are getting the hits. Look at the teams that hit consistently, and where they are in January. More often that not, they're still playing playoff ball.

(04-30-2024, 09:09 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Gene Smith: ‘I would have to meet his wife/girlfriend first.”

(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse.  If you draft this player at 55 and he busts?  Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

You take your guy.  A lot of times the boards in the mocks don't match real teams boards.  There is a chance you don't take him a team right after you will.  You have to stay true to your board.  When coming up with the bigboard and putting it together all the coaches are together when making it and everyone has input.

(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  

Simple (Jags Strategy):  If the player is from LSU, then you take him.  If he's not from LSU, you pass on him and take a player from LSU.

It is amazing no one is actually willing to just answer the question. Except caldrac he was on point as usual. Mikey got close, but used the just wish for more wishes answer.

(05-01-2024, 08:07 PM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]It is amazing no one is actually willing to just answer the question.  Except caldrac he was on point as usual.  Mikey got close, but used the just wish for more wishes answer.

I answered as well, you take the top guy on your board, the consensus board doest matter.

(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse.  If you draft this player at 55 and he busts?  Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

In this scenario, you would try to trade back. If you can’t, then you sit and pick your highest graded player. You might even go back and see who interviewed better. Or look for at the intangibles. Or just let the clock run out and move a spot back

(05-02-2024, 05:53 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-01-2024, 08:07 PM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]It is amazing no one is actually willing to just answer the question.  Except caldrac he was on point as usual.  Mikey got close, but used the just wish for more wishes answer.

I answered as well, you take the top guy on your board, the consensus board doest matter.

I apologize, I did miss yours.  Appreciate the candor.