Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Something to keep an eye on. Another incoming biden foreign policy accomplishment.

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1...XdAxA&s=19

Interesting to watch, but that math doesn't math. Taiwan is 200 miles across the sea from China, an invasion force would take 4 hours or more to get there and the Taiwanese would be sinking those ships as fast as they could. They also have American air defense capabilities and the Chinese Air Force would end up like Iran's, sitting at the bottom of the ocean. The Chines also haven't conducted an amphibious assault under live fire in, well...ever. There's no way they would just be good at it, again against American tech in Taiwanese hands.

(05-30-2024, 01:59 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting to watch, but that math doesn't math. Taiwan is 200 miles across the sea from China, an invasion force would take 4 hours or more to get there and the Taiwanese would be sinking those ships as fast as they could. They also have American air defense capabilities and the Chinese Air Force would end up like Iran's, sitting at the bottom of the ocean. The Chines also haven't conducted an amphibious assault under live fire in, well...ever. There's no way they would just be good at it, again against American tech in Taiwanese hands.

Plus those new Subs with our torpedoes on them

There are about a dozen nonstop commercial flights every day between the two countries.  Hundreds of billions of dollars are traded between the two countries every single year.  Taiwan has not harmed a single Chinese military soldier or asset in decades, nor has China harmed any of Taiwan's. Although there have been drills.

War may come.  But it won't come suddenly.  All of the things I listed above would have to stop first, one by one.  There would be lots of warning shots and minor incidents first.

I have lots of in-laws in Taiwan. Politically, they are very diverse. And none of them express the slightest bit of worry about what the mainland Chinese are going to do. They go about their lives, completely unbothered.

(05-31-2024, 07:22 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I have lots of in-laws in Taiwan.  Politically, they are very diverse.  And none of them express the slightest bit of worry about what the mainland Chinese are going to do.  They go about their lives, completely unbothered.

That doesn't change what they will actually do though. Another biden term and they are going in.

Your vote impacts your inlaws. Think about that in November.

(05-30-2024, 09:12 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]There are about a dozen nonstop commercial flights every day between the two countries.  Hundreds of billions of dollars are traded between the two countries every single year.  Taiwan has not harmed a single Chinese military soldier or asset in decades, nor has China harmed any of Taiwan's. Although there have been drills.

War may come.  But it won't come suddenly.  All of the things I listed above would have to stop first, one by one.  There would be lots of warning shots and minor incidents first.

Additionally, Taiwan is bristling with weapons. China would overwhelm them eventually, but it wouldn’t be a one hour cakewalk as the junk article claims.

(05-31-2024, 07:47 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-30-2024, 09:12 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]There are about a dozen nonstop commercial flights every day between the two countries.  Hundreds of billions of dollars are traded between the two countries every single year.  Taiwan has not harmed a single Chinese military soldier or asset in decades, nor has China harmed any of Taiwan's. Although there have been drills.

War may come.  But it won't come suddenly.  All of the things I listed above would have to stop first, one by one.  There would be lots of warning shots and minor incidents first.

Additionally, Taiwan is bristling with weapons. China would overwhelm them eventually, but it wouldn’t be a one hour cakewalk as the junk article claims.

If I was strategizing for the mainland Chinese, I would adopt a very methodical approach.  Fly the air force closer and closer until the Taiwan air force has to come out to defend the island, and then slowly overwhelm them with numbers.  Then when I had air supremacy, strike known Taiwan defense targets.  Then start moving the invasion force and use the first wave as bait for Taiwan anti-ship missiles.  I wouldn't worry about casualties.  I would try a slow methodical approach that would take the island without damaging it too much.

My nephew had to learn Mandarin to give a speech in Taiwan about the eventual Chinese invasion. It was pretty good, talking about our weapons in their capable hands. He's now a SEAL.. against his Army upbringing. Should be 18B but whatever lol

(05-31-2024, 08:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 07:47 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Additionally, Taiwan is bristling with weapons. China would overwhelm them eventually, but it wouldn’t be a one hour cakewalk as the junk article claims.

If I was strategizing for the mainland Chinese, I would adopt a very methodical approach.  Fly the air force closer and closer until the Taiwan air force has to come out to defend the island, and then slowly overwhelm them with numbers.  Then when I had air supremacy, strike known Taiwan defense targets.  Then start moving the invasion force and use the first wave as bait for Taiwan anti-ship missiles.  I wouldn't worry about casualties.  I would try a slow methodical approach that would take the island without damaging it too much.

That’s a plausible scenario because communist militaries typically regard their war fighters as expendable, with the exception of pilots because of their valuable and expensive training. They are not quickly replaced.

However, rather than expend aircraft and pilots, China would most likely heavily use drones and missiles to take out Taiwan’s defenses. Cheaper, quicker and less risky. That is the future of warfare the world over.

(05-31-2024, 10:25 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 08:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]If I was strategizing for the mainland Chinese, I would adopt a very methodical approach.  Fly the air force closer and closer until the Taiwan air force has to come out to defend the island, and then slowly overwhelm them with numbers.  Then when I had air supremacy, strike known Taiwan defense targets.  Then start moving the invasion force and use the first wave as bait for Taiwan anti-ship missiles.  I wouldn't worry about casualties.  I would try a slow methodical approach that would take the island without damaging it too much.

That’s a plausible scenario because communist militaries typically regard their war fighters as expendable, with the exception of pilots because of their valuable and expensive training. They are not quickly replaced.

However, rather than expend aircraft and pilots, China would most likely heavily use drones and missiles to take out Taiwan’s defenses. Cheaper, quicker and less risky. That is the future of warfare the world over.

Mini guns with advanced radar have no problem with drones. 

Hard to miss when you can throw 100 bullets a second at a target

(05-31-2024, 10:28 AM)snarkyguy_he_him_his Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 10:25 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]That’s a plausible scenario because communist militaries typically regard their war fighters as expendable, with the exception of pilots because of their valuable and expensive training. They are not quickly replaced.

However, rather than expend aircraft and pilots, China would most likely heavily use drones and missiles to take out Taiwan’s defenses. Cheaper, quicker and less risky. That is the future of warfare the world over.

Mini guns with advanced radar have no problem with drones. 

Hard to miss when you can throw 100 bullets a second at a target

I believe those miniguns you refer to are short range weapons, a last line of defense type of weapon.  I don't think a minigun would be able to hit a drone from a mile away.  I also don't think Taiwan would be able to line up enough of them to defend against a massive drone attack.  Plus, they fire so many bullets per second, it is very expensive to use one.

(05-31-2024, 11:39 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 10:28 AM)snarkyguy_he_him_his Wrote: [ -> ]Mini guns with advanced radar have no problem with drones. 

Hard to miss when you can throw 100 bullets a second at a target

I believe those miniguns you refer to are short range weapons, a last line of defense type of weapon.  I don't think a minigun would be able to hit a drone from a mile away.  I also don't think Taiwan would be able to line up enough of them to defend against a massive drone attack.  Plus, they fire so many bullets per second, it is very expensive to use one.

Thousands of bullets that cost .01 to make versus a missile that costs 50 to 100k each...

And yea mini guns are a last resort.. but I'm talking against drones not actual ballistic missiles.

This is gonna suck.. Nobody is going to get their new Jags jerserys on time lolol

(05-31-2024, 11:50 AM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]This is gonna suck.. Nobody is going to get their new Jags jerserys on time lolol

Good luck getting parts for your car once this pops off

(05-31-2024, 11:53 AM)EricC85 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 11:50 AM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]This is gonna suck.. Nobody is going to get their new Jags jerserys on time lolol

Good luck getting parts for your car once this pops off

Yet you'll vote for anyone other than ORANGE MAN BAD. Yet those are the ones that want the war. Lol

Ah neat. Another war speculation thread where the experts who sit fat an happy in America pontificate about something most of them have never even gotten close to experiencing.

(05-31-2024, 04:21 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [ -> ]Ah neat. Another war speculation thread where the experts who sit fat an happy in America pontificate about something most of them have never even gotten close to experiencing.

It's the off-season. What else are they going to pontificate?

(05-31-2024, 10:28 AM)snarkyguy_he_him_his Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 10:25 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]That’s a plausible scenario because communist militaries typically regard their war fighters as expendable, with the exception of pilots because of their valuable and expensive training. They are not quickly replaced.

However, rather than expend aircraft and pilots, China would most likely heavily use drones and missiles to take out Taiwan’s defenses. Cheaper, quicker and less risky. That is the future of warfare the world over.

Mini guns with advanced radar have no problem with drones. 

Hard to miss when you can throw 100 bullets a second at a target

Close-In Weapons Systems on U.S. Navy ships shoot 30mm shells (flatulence of the gods, I call it), which I can guarantee cost more than a penny each. But cost is not the issue. They're a short-range weapon which, as Marty points out, have to be pre-positioned for effective field of fire. While a CIWS may be able to stop a few drones at a time, they would not be able to stop a drone swarm. It would be akin to trying to thwart a swarm of bees with a fly swatter.

(05-31-2024, 10:25 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-31-2024, 08:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]If I was strategizing for the mainland Chinese, I would adopt a very methodical approach.  Fly the air force closer and closer until the Taiwan air force has to come out to defend the island, and then slowly overwhelm them with numbers.  Then when I had air supremacy, strike known Taiwan defense targets.  Then start moving the invasion force and use the first wave as bait for Taiwan anti-ship missiles.  I wouldn't worry about casualties.  I would try a slow methodical approach that would take the island without damaging it too much.

That’s a plausible scenario because communist militaries typically regard their war fighters as expendable, with the exception of pilots because of their valuable and expensive training. They are not quickly replaced.

However, rather than expend aircraft and pilots, China would most likely heavily use drones and missiles to take out Taiwan’s defenses. Cheaper, quicker and less risky. That is the future of warfare the world over.

You really think that Taiwan doesn't have our anti-drone ESM defense weapons?